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Canada’s COVID-19 immunity landscape has completely transformed since the emergence of Omicron — with new estimates suggesting that almost half of the population has been infected.
Researchers in B.C. analyzed thousands of blood samples in the Lower Mainland throughout the pandemic to track antibody levels in the general population, and found a massive shift in the level of infection in the past few months.
The B.C. data, provided in advance to CBC News, found close to 40 per cent of the population had antibodies from a previous infection in March, up from around 10 per cent in October. That number is even higher in children under 10, with nearly two-thirds now showing evidence of prior infection.
“Think about that — two out of three children,” said Dr. Danuta Skowronski, a vaccine effectiveness expert and epidemiology lead at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control who led the research.
“Wow, something really dramatically changed and I think we know the name of that change … it’s Omicron.”
People are shown in downtown Vancouver last month. New data out of B.C. showed a major jump in antibody levels in the general population in the past few months, as the country grappled with the Omicron variant of COVID-19. (Ben Nelms/CBC)
Close to 90% vaccinated, infected or both
Skowronski said close to 60 per cent of those aged 10 to 40 also had antibodies from prior infection, and just under 50 per cent of those aged 40 to 60. There were slightly lower levels in those aged 60 to 80 — possibly because they were less socially engaged and vaccinated earlier.
The data also suggests almost 90 per cent of the population has had their immune system primed against the virus in some way — either through vaccination, prior infection or both.
Skowronski, whose research laid the groundwork for the decision to delay second doses in Canada, said we are in a “vastly different context” now than at the start of the pandemic, when we had basically “total population naivety” to the virus.
“It’s about one in two, almost, of our population that have had evidence of infection,” she said.
And while the data provides a useful snapshot to estimate the level of infection in the community, she said it doesn’t directly translate to exact population immunity levels.
“We cannot say that this is an indication of protection or being exempt from future infections, especially when new variants arise. But a primed person is immunologically a prepared person.”
While the data is preliminary and has yet to be peer reviewed or published, it is in line with emerging data from other provinces, like Ontario, where official estimates now show as much as 40 per cent of the population was infected with COVID-19 since December alone.
“We have had millions of infections in the last few months, most of them undocumented,” said Dr. David Naylor, who led the federal inquiry into the 2003 SARS epidemic and now co-chairs the federal government’s COVID-19 immunity task force.
“I would not be surprised if the true number is over 10 million nationally by the end of the sixth wave.”
WATCH | Children’s hospitals hit hard in Canada’s 6th COVID-19 wave:
Children’s hospitals under strain in 6th COVID-19 wave
1 day ago
Duration 2:06
The sixth pandemic wave is causing high patient volumes and staff shortages at a number of children’s hospitals across Canada, leading to concern among parents and medical experts about COVID-19 spreading among kids. 2:06
Canada has become a variant magnet
Canada’s COVID-19 immunity landscape is one of the most complex in the world due to our high vaccination rates, widespread transmission, delaying and mixing of doses and the fact we’ve been a magnet for variants — often with multiple circulating at once.
But does the protection we’ve gained from vaccines, prior infection and combined hybrid immunity mean the worst is behind us? Or could waning immunity to infection, the spread of new variants or some other pandemic curveball threaten another surge in the future?
“If there’s a future variant that has infective advantages over Omicron, we can expect it to arrive and spread here,” Naylor said. “That much is obvious from the last two years. SARS-CoV-2 goes pretty much everywhere at a brisk clip.”
Canada’s bold decision to delay and mix doses of COVID-19 vaccines led to strong protection from hospitalization and death, but the emergence of Omicron and its subvariants rendered them less protective against infection than previous virus strains.
A new Canadian preprint study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, found the effectiveness of just two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccines was “excellent” against severe outcomes from COVID-19 up until September 2021.
That research follows another new study co-authored by Skowronski, and published in Clinical Infectious Diseases, that showed two doses of mRNA vaccines or AstraZeneca “gave substantial and sustained protection” against hospitalization from Delta, up to November 2021.
While vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes has held up well, two-dose protection against Omicron infection fell dramatically in December, dropping to just 36 per cent, according to one Ontario preprint study, with boosters raising it to 61 per cent.
That significant hit to our population immunity underscored the need for boosters and left us highly susceptible to Omicron-fuelled fifth and sixth waves that have since ripped through the population.
‘Complex’ immunity landscapes
Tulio de Oliveira, the director of South Africa’s Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation, who led the research team that identified subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, said countries like Canada now have “very complex” immunity landscapes in the wake of Omicron.
“What that means is that what one country sees with a variant and subvariant may be slightly different from which other countries see,” he told CBC News in a phone interview.
“But if population immunity is increased, especially through vaccination and boosting, that still should bode very well against not only Omicron, but potentially any new variant that may emerge.”
Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) strongly recommended boosting all adults and high risk children earlier this month, and de Oliveira said the most effective way to boost a population is before a new wave of infection starts.
WATCH | Canadians urged to get COVID-19 boosters to blunt 6th wave:
Canadians urged to get COVID-19 booster shots to blunt 6th wave
10 days ago
Duration 2:00
All signs indicate Canada is going through a sixth pandemic wave, Dr. Theresa Tam confirms. Her message to Canadians: wear a mask and get boosted if eligible. 2:00
“That’s what countries should be concentrating on,” he said. “When infection is low, it’s a great idea to go into a campaign of a booster for people that have been fully vaccinated, or vaccinated and infected, because then the next wave that comes will be much less deadly.”
Naylor said our prior infection immunity, combined with the current vaccine coverage, continued rollout of boosters, additional doses for kids and the “smart use” of fourth doses in eligible Canadians should provide a “fairly solid immunity wall for the summer.”
“It’s prudent to remember, however, that no one predicted Omicron,” he said. “And so that immunity wall could still be breached.”
‘Running out of territory’ with current vaccines
While a high rate of vaccination and previous infection in Canada doesn’t guarantee the worst is behind us, it’s clear that it will continue to reduce the likelihood of severe outcomes from COVID-19 for the vast majority of Canadians.
But as the virus continues to evolve into new variants that are light years away from the original strain that the vaccines are targeted to, the push to update the formulations to target Omicron and other variants is top of mind.
“We need broader coverage from the vaccines. Much to my frustration, we’re still aiming against a strain that’s long, long, long gone,” said Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist and professor at the University of Arizona.
“I understand the practical reality is these are the tools that we have on hand right now, but we’re definitely running out of territory in terms of what we can expect these vaccines to do, given how different Omicron is than what the vaccines are aimed against.”
Moderna announced new findings this week showing that a booster shot designed to target both the Beta variant and the original virus strain generated a better immune response against several other variants, including Omicron.
While that exact formulation will likely never see the light of day, it bodes well for the possibility of tailoring future mRNA shots to target multiple variants. But until we have updated vaccines, immunity from prior infection may work to fill the gap.
A new version of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine appears to offer protection ‘against all variants of concern,’ according to preliminary results released by the company. It plans to offer a vaccine that will target both the original strain and the Omicron variant as early as this fall. 2:00
“Given the mismatches of the vaccine with Omicron, almost certainly a prior Omicron infection with BA.1 would confer more protection against Omicron sublineages, like BA.2,” Bhattacharya said.
“So the people who recovered from BA.1 are almost certainly in better shape in dealing with BA.2 than someone who just has gotten say a couple of shots of the vaccine in the past,” he said.
Skowronski said the Canadian population is more immunologically prepared against COVID-19 now than ever before. And if Omicron continues to evolve new variants while close to half of us have been infected with it, there will be some “cross-protection.”
“We can’t predict what the subsequent variants may be. They likely will be evolutionarily related, but may not be to Omicron,” she said, adding COVID-19 vaccines may have to be updated regularly by a team of international experts, much like influenza shots are.
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — The Tampa Bay Lightning selected Victor Hedman as the team captain on Wednesday as training camp opened, making the big defenseman the successor to Steven Stamkos.
Hedman, who is going into his 16th season with Tampa Bay, was considered the obvious choice to get the “C” after the Lightning did not re-sign Stamkos and their longtime captain left to join Nashville.
“Victor is a cornerstone player that is extremely well respected by his teammates, coaches and peers across the NHL,” general manager Julien BriseBois said. “Over the past 15 seasons, he has been a world-class representative for our organization both on and off the ice. Victor embodies what it means to be a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning and is more than ready for this exciting opportunity. We are looking forward to watching him flourish in his new role as we continue to work towards our goal of winning the Stanley Cup.”
The 33-year-old from Sweden was a key contributor in the Lightning hoisting the Cup back to back in 2020 and ’21, including playoff MVP honors on the first of those championship runs. Hedman also took home the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenseman in 2018 and finished in the top three in voting five other seasons.
Ryan McDonagh, who was reacquired early in the offseason in a trade with the Predators, and MVP finalist Nikita Kucherov will serve as alternate captains with the Lightning moving on to the post-Stamkos era.
TORONTO – While Toronto FC is looking to improve its position on the pitch, general manager Jason Hernandez is trying to do the same off it.
That has been easier said than done this season.
Sending winger Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty to CF Montreal for up to $1.3 million (all dollar figures in U.S. funds) in general allocation money before the secondary transfer window closed in early August helped set the stage for future moves.
But there have been plenty of obstacles, which Hernandez has been working to clear.
“We feel a lot more confident going into this upcoming off-season that we did the one prior,” said Hernandez. “There’s a level of what I would say booby-traps that were uncovered when I first got the (GM) role at the end of last summer.”
The club is paying off departed forwards Adam Diomande and Ayo Akinola as well as a $500,000 payment due in 2024 to Belgium’s Anderlecht for Jamaican international defender Kemar Lawrence. That payment was part of the transfer fee for Lawrence, who joined TFC from Anderlecht in May 2021 and was traded to Minnesota United in March 2022.
Diomande was waived while Akinola’s contract was terminated by mutual agreement.
“That comes to an end in ’25, which is nice,” said Hernandez. “We had to suffer from a salary cap perspective this season. But those things coming off, the Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty money coming in, we’re going to be in a position to make some good additions, which is positive.”
While MLS clubs are allowed one contract buyout per year, Toronto had already used its on former captain Michel Bradley, who retired after last season. Bradley had previously restructured his contract, deferring money.
TFC’s only other move during the summer transfer window was the signing of free-agent defender Henry Wingo. Hernandez said the club knew going into the window that it was likely limited to the one acquisition “unless other business happened”
“We knew we had this bucket of money and we knew we were going to go get Henry,” said Hernandez.
While the sale of the highly touted Marshall-Rutty opened up other possibilities, it came on the eve of the transfer window closing. And the team did not like what it saw in the free-agent market.
“A lot of the opportunities we were presented in the free agency space felt more like a short-term, Band-Aid decision versus what actually the club probably needs.”
Hernandez was not willing to take in players who came with a “club-friendly” salary cap charge in 2024 and a much bigger number in 2025.
Instead, Toronto promoted forward Charlie Sharp and wingback Nate Edwards to the first team from TFC 2 ahead of last Friday’s roster freeze.
MLS teams are operating on a salary budget of $5.47 million this season, which covers up to 20 players on the senior roster (clubs can elect to spread that number across 18 players). But the league has several mechanisms that allow those funds to go further, including using allocation money (both general and targeted) to buy down salaries.
Designated players only count $683,750 — the maximum salary charge — against the cap no matter their actual pay. Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne is actually earning $15.4 million with fellow Italian Federico Bernardeschi collecting $6.295 million and Canadian Richie Laryea $1.208 million.
Hernandez says Laryea’s contract can — and “very likely” will — be restructured so as to remove the designated player status.
There are benefits in going with just two designated players rather than three.
Teams that elect to go with two DPs can sign up to four players as part of the league’s “U22 Initiative.” The pluses of that structure include a reduced salary cap charge for the young players and up to an extra $2 million in general allocation money.
Hernandez says the club is currently pondering whether that is the way to go.
Captain Jonathan Osorio who is earning $836,370 this season, restructured his deal to allow the team to sign Laryea as a DP. In doing so, Osorio had his option year guaranteed so his contact runs through 2026.
Hernandez and coach John Herdman will have decisions to make come the end of the year.
The contracts of goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh ($94,200), defenders Kevin Long ($277,500), Shane O’Neill ($413,000) and Kobe Franklin ($100,520), midfielder Alonso Coello ($94,050) and Brandon Servania ($602,710), and forward Prince Owusu ($807,500) — all on the club’s senior roster — expire at the end of 2024 with club options to follow.
While there is more work to do, Hernandez believes TFC is on the right road.
Toronto, which finished last in the league at 4-20-10 in 2023, went into Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus in a playoff position at eighth in the East at 11-15-3.
“By every metric, we are miles ahead of where we were at this point last year,” said Hernandez.
“That’s a low bar, so that’s not saying much,” he added.
But he believes TFC is “quite competitive” when it has all its players at its disposal.
“To get results in this final stretch, we’re going to need our prominent players to really show up and have big performances, and be supported by the rest of the cast.”
After Columbus, TFC plays at Colorado and Chicago and hosts the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami. The club also travels to Vancouver for the Canadian Championship final.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024
Mackenzie Hughes might just be what the International team needs as this year’s Presidents Cup.
Hughes, from Dundas, Ont., is one of three Canadians on the squad competing in the match-play event at Royal Montreal Golf Club next week.
His putting skills, cool demeanour under pressure, pre-existing connections with teammates and clubhouse leadership could help the team — made up of non-American players outside Europe — end a nine-tournament losing skid to the United States at the biennial event.
“I’ve had this one circled on the calendar for a few years now,” said Hughes on joining fellow Canadians Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners as captain’s picks on the 12-player International team. “I pretty much knew that when it was announced the tournament would be in Canada and that Mike Weir was going to be the captain, you pretty much knew where that was going to go.
“To get that call from (Weir) is really special because he’s the guy that I looked up to, we all looked up to, as Canadian golfers.”
Pendrith and Conners are returning to the team after a disappointing 17 1/2 to 12 1/2 loss to the United States at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. in 2022.
Hughes was ranked 14th on the International team standings in 2022 and could have easily been included on that squad after Australia’s Cameron Smith and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann were ruled ineligible after jumping ship to the rival LIV Golf circuit.
However, captain Trevor Immelman of South Africa instead chose the lower ranked Christiaan Bezuidenhout (16th) of South Africa, Pendrith (18th), South Korea’s Kim Si-woo (20th) and Australia’s Cameron Davis (25th).
“I certainly wanted to be on that team but also I understood the picks,” said Hughes, who lives in Charlotte and plays at Quail Hollow regularly. “I think that like a lot of guys that don’t get picked you more so look back on your own play and I wish I had made that selection easier for them.
“I didn’t do myself any favours in the six weeks leading up to it and that’s a hard pill to swallow.”
It may have been a costly oversight on Immelman’s part, as finishing holes was an issue for the International team in 2022 and Hughes is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. This season he’s third in shots gained around the green and fifth in shots gained from putting.
“It doesn’t mean that just because I was there it would have turned the tide, but I’d like to think maybe I could have helped,” said Hughes. “That’s why you play the matches. You have to get out there and do it.”
This year Hughes made it easier for Weir, the Canadian golf legend from Brights Grove, Ont., to choose him. Hughes is 51st in the FedEx Cup Fall standings and has made the cut seven tournaments in a row, including a tie for fourth at last week’s Procore Championship.
“Mac played very solidly all year. Really like his short game, an all-around short game,” said Weir on Sept. 3 after announcing his captain’s picks. “He’s one of the elite and best short game guys on the PGA Tour
“I also love Mac’s grit. So that was the reason I picked him.”
Hughes’s intangible qualities go beyond grit.
He, Pendrith and Conners will arrive at Royal Montreal as a unit within the International squad, having become close friends while playing on Kent State University’s men’s golf team before turning pro. They’re also part of a group of Canadians, including Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin of Abbotsford, B.C., that regularly practice together before PGA Tour events.
“To have those guys with me is really icing on the cake, it’s very special,” said Hughes. “Opportunities like this don’t come around very often: to play this kind of team competition, which is already hard to do, but to play with some of your best friends, it almost seems scripted.”
An 11-year professional, Hughes has also been a member of the PGA Tour’s player advisory council the past two years and has been an outspoken advocate for making professional golf more accessible to fans.
Although Weir relied heavily on analytics to make his captain’s selections, Hughes’s character came up again and again when asked why he was named to the team.
“I just have a gut feeling with Mac that he has what it takes in these big moments,” said Weir. “They’re big pressure moments, and I have a feeling he’s going to do great in those moments.”
DP WORLD TOUR — Aaron Cockerill of Stony Mountain, Man., continues his chase for a spot in the Europe-based DP World Tour’s playoffs. The top 50 players on the Race to Dubai standings make the DP World Tour Championship and Cockerill moved eight spots up to 39th in the rankings after tying for ninth at last week’s Irish Open. He’ll be back at it on Thursday at the BMW PGA Championship at the Wentworth Club in Surrey, England.
KORN FERRY TOUR — Myles Creighton of Digby, N.S., is ranked 38th on the second-tier Korn Ferry Tour’s points list. He leads the Canadian contingent into this week’s Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. He’ll be joined at Ohio State University Golf Club — Scarlet Course in Columbus, Ohio by Edmonton’s Wil Bateman (53rd), Etienne Papineau (65th) of St-Jean-Sur-Richelieu, Que., and Sudarshan Yellamaraju (99th) of Mississauga, Ont.
CHAMPIONS TOUR — Calgary’s Stephen Ames is the lone Canadian at this week’s Pure Insurance Championship. He’s No. 2 on the senior circuit’s points list. The event will start Friday and be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course in Monterey, Calif.
LPGA TOUR — There are four Canadians in this week’s Kroger City Championship. Savannah Grewal (97th in the Race to CME Globe Rankings) of Mississauga, Ont., Hamilton’s Alena Sharp (115th), and Maude-Aimee Leblanc (142nd) of Sherbrooke, Que., will all tee it up at TPC River’s Bend in Maineville, Ohio.
EPSON TOUR — Vancouver’s Leah John is the low Canadian heading into the Murphy USA El Dorado Shootout. She’s 54th in the second-tier tour’s points list. She’ll be joined by Maddie Szeryk (118th) of London, Ont., and Brigitte Thibault (119th) of Rosemere, Que., at Mystic Creek Golf Club in El Dorado, Ark.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
