Americans think gold beats stocks as a long-term investment. Advisors disagree: 'It's more like a speculation' | Canada News Media
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Americans think gold beats stocks as a long-term investment. Advisors disagree: ‘It’s more like a speculation’

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Americans are upbeat on gold and have soured on stocks — perhaps to their detriment.

Twenty-six percent of Americans ranked gold as the best long-term investment in 2023, almost double the 15% who thought so in 2022, according to a recent Gallup poll.

The share surpassed that of stocks: 18% of Americans ranked stocks as the top long-term holding, down from 24% last year, according to the survey.

It was the first time since 2013 that their perception of stocks was below that of gold. Both ranked behind real estate.

While Americans were asked to gauge sentiment about the long term, public perception is guided more by short-term swings in investment performance, said Gallup, which polled a random sample of 1,013 adults between April 3 and 25.

And that recency bias can be dangerous for investors saving for a goal like retirement, which may be decades away.

“As a long-term investment, [gold] is a very poor solution,” said Charlie Fitzgerald, a certified financial planner and principal of Moisand Fitzgerald Tamayo in Orlando, Florida.

“It’s more like a speculation,” he added.

Stocks beat gold over the long term

Stocks generally serve as the long-term growth engine of an investment portfolio, financial advisors said.

The S&P 500 Index of stocks had a 10.43% average annual total return between 1970 and 2022, according to an analysis by Securian Asset Management. Gold had a 7.7% return over the same period. (After the U.S. gold standard ended in 1971, the price of gold was no longer fixed, making the early 1970s a good starting point for a price comparison.)

The price of gold, which is often viewed as a safe haven, typically jumps during times of fear and economic malaise. For example, gold prices surged to multiyear highs in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, and spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) — an exchange-traded fund that tracks gold prices — is up 8.6% so far in 2023. The S&P 500 is up 7.6%.

Investors’ enthusiasm for gold comes amid recent turmoil in the banking sector and as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates aggressively since early last year, to put a lid on high inflation. The Fed, the U.S. central bank, expects the country to tip into a mild recession later this year.

Meanwhile, 2022 was Wall Street’s worst showing since 2008, as the S&P 500 fell by more than 19%. U.S. bonds had their worst year in history.

A debt-ceiling standoff means the U.S. is also staring down the possibility of not being able to pay its bills within weeks — which would be a first in the nation’s history and likely to trigger economic chaos.

“Gold is doing well now because of the current economic condition,” said Ivory Johnson, a CFP and founder of Delancey Wealth Management, based in Washington.

Johnson, a member of CNBC’s Advisor Council, has been recommending more gold to clients over the past year or so.

However, it’s more of a short-term holding — a hedge for investors when gross domestic product (a measure of U.S. economic output) and inflation are both decelerating, as they are right now, Johnson said. If GDP starts to rebound, he’d generally recommend dumping gold and instead buying growth stocks.

“Gold is not a long-term investment,” Johnson said. “It’s not something you just put in the portfolio and keep it there.”

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Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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