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America's CEOs are losing confidence in the economy – CNN

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New York (CNN Business)US business leaders are still upbeat about the economic recovery. But they’re not as confident as they were just a few months ago, and they blame the Delta variant and a super tight labor market for the drop in sentiment.

The Conference Board, a leading business research think tank, reported Thursday a steep slide in its CEO confidence index for the third quarter.
After hitting an all-time high of 82 in the second quarter on hopes that the United States had turned the corner on the pandemic, the index slid to 67 — a nearly 20% dip — in the third quarter.
The good news is that a reading above 50 remains a sign of overall optimism. But the downward trend bears watching, especially since US consumer confidence also slumped earlier this summer.
Covid-19 worries remain top of mind for America’s titans of industry.
“CEO confidence is down from the all-time peak reached in Q2, when Covid-19 appeared on the verge of defeat,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a news release. “A summer surge of the highly infectious Delta variant — coupled with slumping vaccination rates — has brought pandemic uncertainty back to the fore.”
That has tainted the outlook for CEOs.

CEOs less upbeat about economy and worried about finding talent

The Conference Board, which produced the survey in conjunction with the Business Council, reported that 88% of CEOs surveyed in the second quarter had said they expected overall economic conditions to improve over the next six months. But just 60% of respondents felt that way in the third quarter.
What’s more, in the third-quarter survey, just 65% of top executives said they anticipated short-term prospects for their own industry would improve. That’s down from 81% in the second-quarter results.
Job market conditions are another major challenge: 60% of CEOs said they expect to expand headcount, up from 54% in Q2. But open job positions are increasingly difficult to fill.
Nearly three-quarters of the CEOs surveyed said in the third quarter that they’re having trouble finding quality workers, up from 57% in the previous report.
“Businesses are out of pandemic survival mode and eager to expand, invest, and hire,” said Roger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council and a trustee of the Conference Board.
“This has accelerated a return to the severe labor shortages seen before the pandemic —now exacerbated by the virus’s stubborn persistence, which has kept many workers unable or reluctant to reenter the workforce,” added Ferguson, a former Federal Reserve vice chair and the ex-CEO of TIAA.
CEOs reocgnize they have to pay up to attract talent — great news for jobseekers but not good for corporate profits.
Two-thirds of the CEOs surveyed in the third quarter said they expect to increase worker wages by at least 3% over the next year. Only 37% had planned to boost worker pay by that much in the prior survey.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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