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An offer Alberta couldn’t refuse

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This column is an opinion from Max Fawcett, a freelance writer and the former editor of Alberta Oil magazine.

 

 

When Jason Kenney tabled the report from his “fair deal panel” last month, it effectively opened a new front in his own long-running conflict with the federal Liberal government.

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But the latest results from a long-running survey on Canadian attitudes from the Environics Institute suggests he might want to reconsider this particular fight.

After all, the proportion of Albertans who feel so mistreated by the rest of Canada that they support independence dropped from 56 per cent to 43 per cent — and that’s from a survey that was conducted before COVID-19 hit.

Kenney’s government has yet to really thank Ottawa for its numerous interventions. Those include spending $1.7 billion to help Alberta address its growing orphan well problem and a series of loan guarantee programs for the oil and gas industry as well as national programs like the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) or the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS).

Even so, it’s hard to imagine that Albertans will be totally blind to the contributions that Ottawa is making right now — and that they’d somehow be more enthusiastic about the idea of separating from Canada as a result.

But if Justin Trudeau wants to bring western alienation to heel once and for all, he should do something even more radical: actually address the concerns of western Canadians.

 

Ottawa has made numerous contributions to Alberta lately, including spending $1.7 billion to help the province address its growing orphan well problem. (Orphan Well Association)

 

No, that doesn’t mean changing the equalization formula, if only because there is no possible change that would make Alberta a beneficiary of the program.

Despite a downturn in oil and gas prices that has been going on for almost six years now, Albertans still earn far more than other Canadians. According to Statistics Canada, the median household income in Alberta was $72,700 in 2018 — more than $10,000 higher than the national figure.

If those incomes do eventually drop down below the national median, the minutiae of the equalization formula will be the least of Alberta’s concerns.

But it does mean acknowledging that Albertans have been massive net contributors to confederation this century, and doing something to recognize that investment.

Yes, the federal government bought and is building the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, but that’s as much about protecting its financial interests as it is about advancing Alberta’s.

And while Ottawa has expressed a willingness to reconsider the terms of its fiscal stabilization program, which effectively acts as an insurance policy for provinces that experience major decreases in their revenues, the figures being discussed amount to a rounding error on Alberta’s historical contributions.

That’s why the federal government should make Alberta’s political leaders an offer they almost certainly couldn’t refuse.

A program to acknowledge Alberta’s contributions

It should acknowledge those historical outflows, and offer to create a program that would prevent them from happening in the future.

Above a certain threshold — say, $4,000 per capita — any surplus contributions by a province’s taxpayers would be rebated to them by the federal government, on an equal basis to everyone over the age of 18.

For example, Alberta taxpayers kicked in $22.4 billion more than they received back in federal program spending in 2015. Using that $4,000 per capita threshold, that would leave $5.8 billion to distribute to the approximately three million adults in Alberta — or a cheque for nearly $2,000.

This would have a few obvious advantages.

First, it would more closely bind Albertans to the federal government, and remind them of their relationship with Ottawa and the benefits that come from it.

Second, it would help reduce income inequality within the province, as those who paid more in federal taxes would receive proportionately less back in rebates. For a federal government that’s clearly interested in fighting poverty and growing the middle class, this would be an obvious win.

And third, it’s a program that might never actually send much money back to Albertans, given that the days of $100 per barrel oil (and, just as importantly, $5 per mcf natural gas) are pretty clearly behind us.

 

Hundreds of people rallied in Edmonton last year in support of the western provinces separating from Canada. By creating a program that would ensure that Albertans are repaid in kind for their contributions to confederation, the federal government could take the wind out of the sails of western alienation, says Max Fawcett. (Gabriel Brown/CBC)

 

As such, it might ultimately end up as a bluff that never gets called — but one that could still defuse tensions and shore up support for federalism in the regions where it’s most often under attack.

By acknowledging the historical contributions that Albertans have made to confederation, and creating a program that would ensure that they’re repaid in kind in the future, the federal government could permanently take the wind out of the sails of western alienation.

It would be a fitting legacy for a prime minister whose father both defeated one separatist movement while in office and potentially laid the groundwork for another.

Ironically, the biggest hurdle here might be the prime minister’s own partisan interests in Alberta.

Wexit vote split could help Trudeau more

While sending voters cheques with a Canadian flag on them could theoretically help the Liberals win back a few seats in Alberta, allowing the Wexit party to split the federal conservative vote would help far more.

Even a modest splitting of that vote would put a handful of seats in Edmonton and Calgary in play, and possibly position the Liberals to improve on their record four-seat showing in 2015.

Jason Kenney isn’t necessarily safe from any Wexit-related blowback, either.

As University of Alberta political scientist Jared Wesley noted on a recent episode of the West of Centre podcast, “Calling a ‘strategic referendum’ can have unintended consequences. We’ve seen that most recently in the UK a few years ago, when [then prime minister David] Cameron thought he knew what the outcome of the Brexit referendum would be. So they’re playing a very dangerous game.”

That’s a game the federal Liberals may well be tempted to let play out, given the possible upside.

Then again, they may look at the disastrous outcome of Brexit and decide that the risk isn’t worth any partisan reward.

If that’s the case, they should move forward with a promise to return any excess contributions to confederation that Albertans might make in the future.

Yes, that could theoretically cost the federal treasury billions of dollars. But losing Alberta would surely cost much, much more.


Source:- CBC.ca

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Alberta's population surges by record-setting 202,000 people: Here's where they all came from – CBC.ca

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Alberta smashed population-growth records in the past year, mainly due to people moving to the province from across Canada and around the world.

The province’s population surged to just over 4.8 million as of Jan. 1, according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

That’s an increase of 202,324 residents compared with a year earlier, which marks — by far — the largest annual increase on record.

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Alberta also broke a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration, with a net gain of 55,107 people.

“This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972,” Statistics Canada said in a release.


Most of the interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia.

Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, versus 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario, for a net gain of 23,376 people.

Similarly, an estimated 37,650 British Columbians moved to Alberta, compared to 22,400 Albertans who moved to B.C., for a net gain of 15,250.


All told, interprovincial migration accounted for 27 per cent of Alberta’s population growth over the past year.

That put it just ahead of permanent immigration, which accounted for 26 per cent, and well ahead of natural population increase (more births than deaths), which accounted for eight per cent.

The largest component, however, was temporary international migration.

Non-permanent residents from other countries accounted for 39 per cent of the province’s population growth in the past year, reflecting a national trend.


Canada’s population reached 40,769,890 on Jan. 1, according to Statistics Canada estimates, which is up 3.2 per cent from a year ago.

“Most of Canada’s 3.2-per-cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration in 2023,” Statistics Canada noted.

“Without temporary immigration, that is, relying solely on permanent immigration and natural increase (births minus deaths), Canada’s population growth would have been almost three times less (1.2 per cent).”

Alberta’s population, meanwhile, grew by 4.4 per cent year-over-year.

Alberta now represents 11.8 per cent of the country’s population, its largest proportion on record. 

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Why Canada's record population growth is helping – and hurting – the economy – CTV News

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Canada has recorded the fastest population growth in 66 years, increasing by 1.3 million people, or 3.2 per cent, in 2023, according to a new report from Statistics Canada.

The country has not seen such growth since 1957, when the spike was attributed to the baby boom and an influx of immigrants fleeing Hungary.

The vast majority of Canada’s growth last year was due to immigration, with temporary residents — which includes foreign workers and international students — making up the largest proportion of newcomers.

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“We need people coming to Canada to help with our economy,” says Matti Siemiatycki, a professor of planning at the University of Toronto. “There are many jobs and professions where there are vacancies, and that is having an impact, whether in the healthcare sector or trades and construction sector.”

Siemiatycki adds immigrants also bring “ingenuity… resources… and culture” to Canada.

Newcomers are relied on to help keep pace with Canada’s aging population and declining fertility rates, but the influx also presents a challenge for a country struggling to build the homes and infrastructure needed for immigrants.

“It’s an incredibly large shock for the economic system to absorb because of just the sheer number of people coming into the country in a short period of time,” says Robert Kavcic. a senior economist and director with BMO Capital Markets.

“The reality is population can grow extremely fast, but the supply side of the economy like housing and service infrastructure, think health care and schools, can only catch up at a really gradual pace,” Kavcic says. “So there is a mismatch right now.”

The impact of that mismatch can most acutely be seen in the cost of rent, services and housing.

In December, Kavcic wrote in a note that Canada needs to build 170,000 new housing units every three months to keep up with population growth, noting the industry is struggling to complete 220,000 units in a full year.

To address this, Ottawa has announced plans to cap the number of new temporary residents while also reducing the number of international student visas, a move economists say could offer some relief when it comes to housing and the cost of living.

“The arithmetic on the caps actual works relatively well because it would take us back down to 1 per cent population growth which we have been used to over the last decade and which is more or less absorbable by the economy,” Kavcic says. “The question is whether or not we see policy makers follow through and hit those numbers.”

Economists believe these changes could help ease inflationary pressures and may make a Bank of Canada rate cut more likely, but could also lead to slower GDP growth.

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Canada’s population hits 41M months after breaking 40M threshold – Global News

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Nine months after reaching a population of 40 million, Canada has cracked a new threshold.

As of Wednesday morning, it’s estimated 41 million people now call the country home, according to Statistics Canada’s live population tracker.

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The speed at which Canada’s population is growing was also reflected in new data released Wednesday by the federal agency: between Jan. 1 2023 and Jan. 1 2024, Canada added 1,271,872 inhabitants, a 3.2 per cent growth rate — the highest since 1957.

Most of Canada’s 3.2 per cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration. Without it, Canada’s population growth would have been 1.2 per cent, Statistics Canada said.


Click to play video: 'Business News: Job growth fails to keep pace with population'

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Business News: Job growth fails to keep pace with population


From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023, Canada’s population increased by 241,494 people (0.6 per cent), the highest rate of growth in a fourth quarter since 1956.

Usha George, a professor at the Toronto Metropolitan Centre for Immigration and Settlement at Toronto Metropolitan University, told Global News in June a booming population can benefit the economy.

“It is not the bodies we are bringing in; these are bodies that fill in the empty spaces in the labour market,” she said.

“They bring a very-high level of skills.”


Click to play video: 'Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan'

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Canadian millennials surpass baby boomers as dominant generation: StatCan


However, Ottawa has recently sought to ease the flow of temporary immigration in a bid to ease cost-of-living woes.


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Immigration Minister Marc Miller said on March 21 Ottawa would set targets for temporary residents allowed into Canada to ensure “sustainable” growth in the number of temporary residents entering the nation.

The next day, BMO economist Robert Kavcic in a note to clients the new limits will have a positive impact on Canada’s rental market and overall housing crisis.

“We’ve been firm in our argument that Canada has had an excess demand problem in housing, and this is maybe the clearest example,” Kavcic said.

“Non-permanent resident inflows, on net, have swelled to about 800K in the latest year, with few checks and balances in place, putting tremendous stress on housing supply and infrastructure.”

Alberta gains, Ontario loses: A look at Canadian migration in 2023

If Alberta is truly calling, then it appears more Canadians are choosing to answer.

Putting the pun on the provincial government’s attraction campaign aside, Canada’s wild rose country saw the largest net gain in interprovincial migration in 2023, Statistics Canada said in Wednesday’s report.


Click to play video: 'Is Alberta ready for population growth?'

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Is Alberta ready for population growth?


The agency said 55,107 Canadians moved to Alberta last year, which was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data become available in 1972.

“Alberta has been recording gains in population from interprovincial migration since 2022, a reverse of the trend seen from 2016 to 2021, when more people left the province than arrived from other parts of Canada,” Statistics Canada said.

“Approximately 333,000 Canadians moved from one province or territory to another in 2023, the second-highest number recorded since the 1990s and the third straight year that interprovincial migration topped 300,000.”

Meanwhile, British Columbia had 8,624 more residents move out than in in 2023, meaning net interprovincial migration was negative for the first time since 2012, Statistics Canada said.

In general, the largest migration flows for British Columbia and Alberta are with each other, and most of the net loss from British Columbia in 2023 was to Alberta, it added.


Click to play video: '‘Enormous pressure’ expected in Ontario home care due to high growth of senior population'

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‘Enormous pressure’ expected in Ontario home care due to high growth of senior population


It also seems that good things may no longer be growing in Ontario; Canada’s most populous province lost 36,197 people to other regions in 2023, the biggest regional loss in 2023, Statistics Canada said.

That followed a loss of 38,816 people in 2022; the only other times a province has lost more than 35,000 people due to migration to other parts of Canada occurred in Quebec in 1977 and 1978.

Alberta aside, net interprovincial migration was also up in Nova Scotia (+6,169 people), New Brunswick (+4,790) and Prince Edward Island (+818), although all three Maritime provinces gained fewer interprovincial migrants in 2023 than in the two previous years, Statistics Canada said.

— with files from Uday Rana and Sean Previl

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