An offshore sale flops and Newfoundland and Labrador's economy takes a hit - iPolitics.ca | Canada News Media
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An offshore sale flops and Newfoundland and Labrador's economy takes a hit – iPolitics.ca

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An eagerly awaited sale of seventeen blocks of east coast offshore acreage last week was expected to draw hundreds of millions of dollars in bids from international oil companies. Instead it attracted one offer for $ 27 million, loose change for an industry that bid $ 1.8 billion for similar acreage in 2018.

Rob Strong, a Newfoundland and Labrador oil industry veteran, told iPolitics last week’s sale could “mark the end of the offshore oil industry in Newfoundland and Labrador.” In a province where the oil industry represents more than 30% of its GDP, the impact could be crushing.

The economic hole the provincial government finds itself in may have just gotten deeper, but the provincial Minister of Natural Resources, Andrew Parsons, says he is encouraged by plans by CNOOC International, the Canadian subsidiary of the Chinese national oil company, to drill an exploratory well in 2021. The head of the provincial oil industry association, Charlene Johnson, says she is encouraged by significant discoveries announced by Equinor, the Norwegian state majority-owned oil company. The Premier, Andrew Furey, says he is encouraged by talks he is having with Cenovous, the Canadian oil company that just swallowed Husky Energy. Their conversation focused on Husky’s recent decision to suspend work midway through the $ 3.2 billion West White Rose project.

Strong notes that the recent departure of the last drilling rig marks the first time since the 1990s that there is no exploratory drilling off Newfoundland and Labrador. Equinor may be sitting on what the industry describes as “significant discoveries,” but if it costs US $ 50 a barrel to produce and the market for east coast crude is US $ 30, it may be time to reconsider what “significant” means.

Premier Andrew Furey told the House of Assembly that he had a “healthy and good discussion” with the head of Cenovous, but the CEO of the Port of Argentia, where the massive West White Rose gravity based structure was being constructed, told the business news publication allnewfoundlandlabrador.com his focus was now on aquaculture and renewable energy opportunities.

Furey has appointed Moya Greene to head an economic recovery team to advise the province on how to climb out of the deep financial hole it finds itself in. Canadians may recognize the London-based Newfoundland native as the former head of Canada Post from 2005-2010 and later as the head of the Royal Mail in Britain until 2018.

In the latter role Ms. Greene guided the mail service through a controversial process of privatization. In a recent address to the Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Municipalities she hinted at cuts to rural health care and marine transportation as measures to reduce spending in the province, but also touted the need to diversify the economy. That is what offshore oil was supposed to have done.

As winter arrives in Newfoundland and Labrador, a cold reality is sinking in. An oil industry that replaced the cod fishery as the pillar of the province’s economy may be rumbling. The 1992 moratorium on the cod fishery was a grim chapter in the province’s history, throwing 40,000 people out of work, but the economy rebounded with oil. By 2008 the province had shed its status as a “have-not” province.

Newfoundland and Labrador’s sense of pride at becoming a contributor to the national equalization program was captured by Bruce MacKinnon, the editorial page cartoonist with the Halifax Chronicle Herald newspaper.

At a time when east coast oil was on its way to selling for US $ 100 a barrel the Newfoundland and Labrador government headed by Premier Danny Williams was running a budget surplus and paying down the provincial debt. At the same time the Ontario provincial government was running a deficit. Mackinnon took note of the situation in a cartoon in which Williams encounters Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, who is holding out his hat like a beggar on a street corner. As Williams pulls some cash out of his suit jacket pocket he says “. . . ”Heard Any Good Newfie Jokes Lately Dalton? . . . ”

After last week’s disappointing offshore auction, nobody is laughing in Newfoundland and Labrador.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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