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Democrats are justified in being freaked out about November

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On CNN on Tuesday night, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) said what a lot of Democrats seem to be thinking: His party is in deep trouble, less than 120 days before the election.

“This race is on a trajectory that is very worrisome, if you care about the future of this country,” Bennet told CNN host Kaitlan Collins. “Joe Biden was nine points up at this time — the last time he was running. Hillary Clinton was five points up. This is the first time in more than 20 years that a Republican president has been up in this part of the campaign.”

“Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election,” Bennet continued, “and maybe win it by a landslide, and take with him the Senate and the House.”

The Biden campaign has — publicly, at least — been sanguine about his position. In an interview Monday, Biden pointed out that he had been behind in the polls before, referring to the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. In 2020, his campaign famously shrugged at the fretting of his supporters, insisting that it would all work out in the end. And it did, if only thanks to relatively narrow victories in a handful of swing states.

Bennet is correct, though, that things are much more dire now than they were then. The Biden campaign’s presentation relies on the idea that voters will swing back toward him as Election Day nears and the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House becomes more real. But that swing would have to be very big, given where the polls sit now.

The polling averages from 538 indicate that the last time a Democrat was faring as poorly in national polling at this point in a race was 2000, when George W. Bush had a large lead over Al Gore. At every other equivalent point from 2004 to 2016, the Democrat was leading, by one to six percentage points. In 2020, Biden was up nearly 10 points on Trump. Now, he trails by two points.

At the state level, things don’t get much better. The relative paucity of state polling means that the averages compiled by 538 are derived to some extent from national polls. But across swing states — and even including Minnesota, which Biden won easily in 2020 — the race is tied, or (more often) Biden trails.

Biden had an average lead of seven points in these states at this point in 2020. He now trails by about three points on average.

It’s also worth noting that in nearly every state, the polling average shifted toward Trump as the race progressed. The final result in each state was even more favorable to the former president.

In the national poll and across these seven states, the polling margins are now an average of 10 points worse for Biden than they were at this point in 2020.

This is the sort of position that would normally prompt a campaign to engage in some dramatic change. That could be in the cards for Biden’s campaign, certainly — including the unusual possibility that Biden ultimately isn’t his party’s nominee. But there has been no obvious shift since last month’s debate, a clear trigger for Trump’s improved position in national polling and for questions about whether Biden will even be on the ballot in November.

“The White House, in the time since that disastrous debate, I think, has done nothing to really demonstrate that they have a plan to win this election,” Bennet said Tuesday. “That they have a convincing plan to win in the battleground states, where we have to win, in order to win this election. And they need to do that.”

The public position of the Biden campaign has been to act as though the polls are dubious or reflecting a blip — that concerns about Trump will, ultimately, overtake concerns about Biden. Perhaps they will; in an unusual election, unusual things might happen.

But it is not hard to see why Bennet — and many others in his party — are concerned.

 

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Youri Chassin quits CAQ to sit as Independent, second member to leave this month

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Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.

He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.

In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.

Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.

He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.

Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.

He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

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MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.

“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”

“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.

“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.

Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.

The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.

While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.

Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.

He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.

Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.

With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Social media comments blocked: Montreal mayor says she won’t accept vulgar slurs

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Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.

She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.

Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.

They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.

However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.

Her statement on X is closed to comments.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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