For Ken Spain, the moment of doubt came just after Labor Day 2010, when a veteran House Democratic chairman remained politically strong despite a barrage of GOP attack ads.
Politics
Analysis | Has the political environment shifted? Alums of 2010, 2018 wave midterms urge caution. – The Washington Post
For Meredith Kelly, the moment of fear came in early 2018, just after Republicans passed a massive tax-cut package.
But neither’s fears ended up becoming reality.
Instead, both operatives, who were working for the party trying to flip control of the House, learned that it is hard to turn a political environment around ahead of midterm elections. Recent presidential campaigns have featured big surprises — think of a certain FBI letter in late October 2016 or Wall Street’s collapse in fall 2008 — but midterm campaigns have tended to stay on course once voters get a baked-in view of the party in power.
Spain, the top communications aide for the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2010, recalled that the veteran Democrat in question ended up losing, part of the 63-seat gain that propelled Republicans into the majority, despite his seeming resilience in mid-September.
And by spring 2018, GOP campaign committees stopped running ads touting the tax cuts, realizing that they were unpopular and that Democrats were heading for a gain of more than 40 seats in the House.
“We knew we had won that argument,” recalled Kelly, the top communications aide in 2018 for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Alumni of those 2010 and 2018 midterm elections now find themselves looking at the 2022 campaign and considering how much things have changed from just a couple of months ago when there was bipartisan consensus that Democrats were going to be wiped out in November.
Instead, mass shootings in New York and Texas made gun violence a top issue for voters, followed by a Supreme Court ruling overturning a nearly 50-year precedent on abortion rights and then a late-summer flurry of federal legislation that energized liberals who previously felt let down by the Democratic legislative majority.
All this while gas prices fell by more than $1 a gallon throughout the summer. And then came Tuesday’s upset victory by Democrat Pat Ryan in a congressional swing district in Upstate New York after Republicans had held a big early lead.
“The question now is not whether the environment has shifted,” Kelly said, “but whether it can stay that way for 70 days, an eternity in politics.”
Not so fast, according to Spain. “The political environment does not turn on a dime. It’s like the tide. At the end of the day, inflation is likely to remain the defining issue.”
He takes the long view on issues and thinks history has shown that the only change that occurs is that the environment just keeps getting worse for the majority.
That’s how it has played out in the past four midterm elections, with Democrats twice losing big and Republicans twice losing big. The president’s party defied history in 1998 and 2002 by gaining House seats — the only such outcomes of the past 100 years.
In 1998, the midterm elections had unique moments. President Bill Clinton was widely popular because of a soaring economy, and House Republicans decided to nationalize their campaigns against his sex scandal, a move that backfired politically. In 2002, President George W. Bush remained one of the most popular presidents ever after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Biden does not have a soaring economy and is not a popular wartime president, which makes some operatives think that in the current environment, Ryan’s win Tuesday was a temporary political sugar high.
Kelly’s Republican counterpart in 2018 compared Ryan’s win in New York to a famous scene in “I Love Lucy,” when the lead character tries to eat chocolates coming down a conveyor belt but is quickly overwhelmed — it’s easier to win a single race now than to defend dozens in November.
“You can eat one chocolate, but then there’s six more coming down the conveyor belt,” Matt Gorman, the NRCC’s communications director in 2018, said.
Gorman knows the feeling: He felt a level of relief in June 2017 when Republicans narrowly won a special election outside Atlanta that became the most expensive House race ever, as Democrats test-drove their midterm strategy by targeting formerly GOP-leaning suburban districts.
Yes, the race was incredibly close, but his side had won, Gorman said. “We went to war and we won.” Until November.
Jesse Ferguson, who ran the DCCC’s media operation for Southern congressional districts in 2010, recalled a similar misleading feeling of positivity after Democrats won a special election that spring in western Pennsylvania.
Democrats had spent months trying to find the right message as voters grew angry about high unemployment and disenchantment with the Obama administration’s focus on passing the Affordable Care Act. By May 2010, the Democratic candidate focused on accusing Republicans of supporting big corporations that sent jobs offshore.
But, Ferguson said, that issue resonated deeply in western Pennsylvania — a region that had been battered by the steel industry’s decline — but over the next few months, it lost its potency and didn’t resonate in other parts of the nation.
“Sometimes special elections are isolated and sometimes they are indicative of future outcomes,” he said.
Ferguson thinks the Supreme Court’s abortion decision is a sea change of the type that did not emerge in other recent midterm elections; as evidence of the effect of the abortion ruling, he points to four special elections in July and August in which Democrats performed much better than Biden did in those districts in 2020.
Ferguson is quick to note that Democrats still face a tough fight to keep the U.S. House, given that Republicans need a net gain of just five seats and that late legal fights over redistricting broke in the GOP’s favor.
“There’s no longer a gale-force wind in our face,” he said of Democrats’ prospects.
Recent public polling shows that Republicans no longer hold a distinct advantage over Democrats in voter enthusiasm, something that the party in power did not see in 2010 or 2018. Also, the generic ballot question now has voters essentially tied when asked whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or Republican for the House, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
On the eve of the 2010 midterms, Republicans held a more than nine-point edge on that question, while just before the 2018 elections, Democrats held a more than seven-point lead.
Spain thinks Democrats are enjoying a brief uptick because disaffected liberals who were always likely to rally to their candidates have come home earlier than usual.
“Partisan coalescing typically happens post-Labor Day,” a moment that provides a “last gasp of hope” to avert political disaster, he said. “That’s accelerated.”
After Labor Day 2010, Spain couldn’t believe that the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), had withstood weeks of GOP commercials and maintained a lead.
Later that September, Skelton plummeted, as did the standing of Democrats everywhere, reassuring Spain that the political direction had not changed. “You started to see the bottom fall out,” he said.
Gorman also recalled a brief glimmer of hope after Labor Day 2018 as border security became more prominent. Then, by early October, Republicans just could not seal their races.
“It was the opposite,” he said. “Races were coming on line we weren’t expecting.”
Kelly recalled feeling confident of a big win at that same moment, after a crush of advertising played out in races the way Democrats expected. Now, she said, Democrats have to take the lessons from this summer and go full throttle on how a Republican majority would mean less access to abortion and more freedom to carry guns in schools.
Voters need to know, she said, that “their freedoms will be put further at risk.”
Spain contends that even a neutral environment will lead to a GOP majority in the House — and that the Senate can remain in Democratic hands — but he also recalls how things just kept turning his way in 2010.
The day before those midterms, NRCC staffers gathered in his office, making their predictions. Most guessed they would gain about 40 to 50 seats.
They unrolled Spain’s piece of paper to see that he predicted a 61-seat again, prompting laughter at his bold call. He agreed it was outlandish and threw the paper away. He was off by just two seats.
“I wish I kept that paper,” Spain said.
NEW YORK (AP) — In a new video posted early Election Day, Beyoncé channels Pamela Anderson in the television program “Baywatch” – red one-piece swimsuit and all – and asks viewers to vote.
In the two-and-a-half-minute clip, set to most of “Bodyguard,” a four-minute cut from her 2024 country album “Cowboy Carter,” Beyoncé cosplays as Anderson’s character before concluding with a simple message, written in white text: “Happy Beylloween,” followed by “Vote.”
At a rally for Donald Trump in Pittsburgh on Monday night, the former president spoke dismissively about Beyoncé’s appearance at a Kamala Harris rally in Houston in October, drawing boos for the megastar from his supporters.
“Beyoncé would come in. Everyone’s expecting a couple of songs. There were no songs. There was no happiness,” Trump said.
She did not perform — unlike in 2016, when she performed at a presidential campaign rally for Hillary Clinton in Cleveland – but she endorsed Harris and gave a moving speech, initially joined onstage by her Destiny’s Child bandmate Kelly Rowland.
“I’m not here as a celebrity, I’m not here as a politician. I’m here as a mother,” Beyoncé said.
“A mother who cares deeply about the world my children and all of our children live in, a world where we have the freedom to control our bodies, a world where we’re not divided,” she said at the rally in Houston, her hometown.
“Imagine our daughters growing up seeing what’s possible with no ceilings, no limitations,” she continued. “We must vote, and we need you.”
The Harris campaign has taken on Beyonce’s track “Freedom,” a cut from her landmark 2016 album “Lemonade,” as its anthem.
Harris used the song in July during her first official public appearance as a presidential candidate at her campaign headquarters in Delaware. That same month, Beyoncé’s mother, Tina Knowles, publicly endorsed Harris for president.
Beyoncé gave permission to Harris to use the song, a campaign official who was granted anonymity to discuss private campaign operations confirmed to The Associated Press.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Outside of sports and a “Cold front coming down from Canada,” American news media only report on Canadian events that they believe are, or will be, influential to the US. Therefore, when Justin Trudeau’s announcement, having finally read the room, that Canada will be reducing the number of permanent residents admitted by more than 20 percent and temporary residents like skilled workers and college students will be cut by more than half made news south of the border, I knew the American media felt Trudeau’s about-face on immigration was newsworthy because many Americans would relate to Trudeau realizing Canada was accepting more immigrants than it could manage and are hoping their next POTUS will follow Trudeau’s playbook.
Canada, with lots of space and lacking convenient geographical ways for illegal immigrants to enter the country, though still many do, has a global reputation for being incredibly accepting of immigrants. On the surface, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver appear to be multicultural havens. However, as the saying goes, “Too much of a good thing is never good,” resulting in a sharp rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, which you can almost taste in the air. A growing number of Canadians, regardless of their political affiliation, are blaming recent immigrants for causing the housing affordability crises, inflation, rise in crime and unemployment/stagnant wages.
Throughout history, populations have engulfed themselves in a tribal frenzy, a psychological state where people identify strongly with their own group, often leading to a ‘us versus them’ mentality. This has led to quick shifts from complacency to panic and finger-pointing at groups outside their tribe, a phenomenon that is not unique to any particular culture or time period.
My take on why the American news media found Trudeau’s blatantly obvious attempt to save his political career, balancing appeasement between the pitchfork crowd, who want a halt to immigration until Canada gets its house in order, and immigrant voters, who traditionally vote Liberal, newsworthy; the American news media, as do I, believe immigration fatigue is why Kamala Harris is going to lose on November 5th.
Because they frequently get the outcome wrong, I don’t take polls seriously. According to polls in 2014, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals were in a dead heat in Ontario, yet Wynne won with more than twice as many seats. In the 2018 Quebec election, most polls had the Coalition Avenir Québec with a 1-to-5-point lead over the governing Liberals. The result: The Coalition Avenir Québec enjoyed a landslide victory, winning 74 of 125 seats. Then there’s how the 2016 US election polls showing Donald Trump didn’t have a chance of winning against Hillary Clinton were ridiculously way off, highlighting the importance of the election day poll and, applicable in this election as it was in 2016, not to discount ‘shy Trump supporters;’ voters who support Trump but are hesitant to express their views publicly due to social or political pressure.
My distrust in polls aside, polls indicate Harris is leading by a few points. One would think that Trump’s many over-the-top shenanigans, which would be entertaining were he not the POTUS or again seeking the Oval Office, would have him far down in the polls. Trump is toe-to-toe with Harris in the polls because his approach to the economy—middle-class Americans are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance during Trump’s first three years in office—and immigration, which Americans are hyper-focused on right now, appeals to many Americans. In his quest to win votes, Trump is doing what anyone seeking political office needs to do: telling the people what they want to hear, strategically using populism—populism that serves your best interests is good populism—to evoke emotional responses. Harris isn’t doing herself any favours, nor moving voters, by going the “But, but… the orange man is bad!” route, while Trump cultivates support from “weird” marginal voting groups.
To Harris’s credit, things could have fallen apart when Biden abruptly stepped aside. Instead, Harris quickly clinched the nomination and had a strong first few weeks, erasing the deficit Biden had given her. The Democratic convention was a success, as was her acceptance speech. Her performance at the September 10th debate with Donald Trump was first-rate.
Harris’ Achilles heel is she’s now making promises she could have made and implemented while VP, making immigration and the economy Harris’ liabilities, especially since she’s been sitting next to Biden, watching the US turn into the circus it has become. These liabilities, basically her only liabilities, negate her stance on abortion, democracy, healthcare, a long-winning issue for Democrats, and Trump’s character. All Harris has offered voters is “feel-good vibes” over substance. In contrast, Trump offers the tangible political tornado (read: steamroll the problems Americans are facing) many Americans seek. With Trump, there’s no doubt that change, admittedly in a messy fashion, will happen. If enough Americans believe the changes he’ll implement will benefit them and their country…
The case against Harris on immigration, at a time when there’s a huge global backlash to immigration, even as the American news media are pointing out, in famously immigrant-friendly Canada, is relatively straightforward: During the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration, illegal Southern border crossings increased significantly.
The words illegal immigration, to put it mildly, irks most Americans. On the legal immigration front, according to Forbes, most billion-dollar startups were founded by immigrants. Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, to name three, have immigrants as CEOs. Immigrants, with tech skills and an entrepreneurial thirst, have kept America leading the world. I like to think that Americans and Canadians understand the best immigration policy is to strategically let enough of these immigrants in who’ll increase GDP and tax base and not rely on social programs. In other words, Americans and Canadians, and arguably citizens of European countries, expect their governments to be more strategic about immigration.
The days of the words on a bronze plaque mounted inside the Statue of Liberty pedestal’s lower level, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” are no longer tolerated. Americans only want immigrants who’ll benefit America.
Does Trump demagogue the immigration issue with xenophobic and racist tropes, many of which are outright lies, such as claiming Haitian immigrants in Ohio are abducting and eating pets? Absolutely. However, such unhinged talk signals to Americans who are worried about the steady influx of illegal immigrants into their country that Trump can handle immigration so that it’s beneficial to the country as opposed to being an issue of economic stress.
In many ways, if polls are to be believed, Harris is paying the price for Biden and her lax policies early in their term. Yes, stimulus spending quickly rebuilt the job market, but at the cost of higher inflation. Loosen border policies at a time when anti-immigrant sentiment was increasing was a gross miscalculation, much like Trudeau’s immigration quota increase, and Biden indulging himself in running for re-election should never have happened.
If Trump wins, Democrats will proclaim that everyone is sexist, racist and misogynous, not to mention a likely White Supremacist, and for good measure, they’ll beat the “voter suppression” button. If Harris wins, Trump supporters will repeat voter fraud—since July, Elon Musk has tweeted on Twitter at least 22 times about voters being “imported” from abroad—being widespread.
Regardless of who wins tomorrow, Americans need to cool down; and give the divisive rhetoric a long overdue break. The right to an opinion belongs to everyone. Someone whose opinion differs from yours is not by default sexist, racist, a fascist or anything else; they simply disagree with you. Americans adopting the respectful mindset to agree to disagree would be the best thing they could do for the United States of America.
______________________________________________________________
Nick Kossovan, a self-described connoisseur of human psychology, writes about what’s
on his mind from Toronto. You can follow Nick on Twitter and Instagram @NKossovan.
Politics
RFK Jr. says Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water. ‘It’s possible,’ Trump says
PHOENIX (AP) — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent proponent of debunked public health claims whom Donald Trump has promised to put in charge of health initiatives, said Saturday that Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water on his first day in office if elected president.
Fluoride strengthens teeth and reduces cavities by replacing minerals lost during normal wear and tear, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The addition of low levels of fluoride to drinking water has long been considered one of the greatest public health achievements of the last century.
Kennedy made the declaration Saturday on the social media platform X alongside a variety of claims about the heath effects of fluoride.
“On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water,” Kennedy wrote. Trump and his wife, Melania Trump, “want to Make America Healthy Again,” he added, repeating a phrase Trump often uses and links to Kennedy.
Trump told NBC News on Sunday that he had not spoken to Kennedy about fluoride yet, “but it sounds OK to me. You know it’s possible.”
The former president declined to say whether he would seek a Cabinet role for Kennedy, a job that would require Senate confirmation, but added, “He’s going to have a big role in the administration.”
Asked whether banning certain vaccines would be on the table, Trump said he would talk to Kennedy and others about that. Trump described Kennedy as “a very talented guy and has strong views.”
The sudden and unexpected weekend social media post evoked the chaotic policymaking that defined Trump’s White House tenure, when he would issue policy declarations on Twitter at virtually all hours. It also underscored the concerns many experts have about Kennedy, who has long promoted debunked theories about vaccine safety, having influence over U.S. public health.
In 1950, federal officials endorsed water fluoridation to prevent tooth decay, and continued to promote it even after fluoride toothpaste brands hit the market several years later. Though fluoride can come from a number of sources, drinking water is the main source for Americans, researchers say.
Officials lowered their recommendation for drinking water fluoride levels in 2015 to address a tooth condition called fluorosis, that can cause splotches on teeth and was becoming more common in U.S. kids.
In August, a federal agency determined “with moderate confidence” that there is a link between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The National Toxicology Program based its conclusion on studies involving fluoride levels at about twice the recommended limit for drinking water.
A federal judge later cited that study in ordering the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to further regulate fluoride in drinking water. U.S. District Judge Edward Chen cautioned that it’s not certain that the amount of fluoride typically added to water is causing lower IQ in kids, but he concluded that mounting research points to an unreasonable risk that it could be. He ordered the EPA to take steps to lower that risk, but didn’t say what those measures should be.
In his X post Saturday, Kennedy tagged Michael Connett, the lead attorney representing the plaintiff in that lawsuit, the environmental advocacy group Food & Water Watch.
Kennedy’s anti-vaccine organization has a lawsuit pending against news organizations including The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy is on leave from the group but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.
What role Kennedy might hold if Trump wins on Tuesday remains unclear. Kennedy recently told NewsNation that Trump asked him to “reorganize” agencies including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the Food and Drug Administration and some agencies under the Department of Agriculture.
But for now, the former independent presidential candidate has become one of Trump’s top surrogates. Trump frequently mentions having the support of Kennedy, a scion of a Democratic dynasty and the son of former Attorney General Robert Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy.
Kennedy traveled with Trump Friday and spoke at his rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump said Saturday that he told Kennedy: “You can work on food, you can work on anything you want” except oil policy.
“He wants health, he wants women’s health, he wants men’s health, he wants kids, he wants everything,” Trump added.
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