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Analysis | Please stop the macabre fantasies about how covid deaths might change politics – The Washington Post

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Whenever I write about how the effects of the coronavirus pandemic overlap with partisan politics, the same whispers can be heard: The Republicans are killing their voters! Good riddance!

That most of those who are unvaccinated are Republican and that it is Republican counties that are disproportionately losing residents to covid-19 has spurred a macabre bit of political analysis. Surely if more Republicans are dying, that could help shift the national political picture more to the left, no? Republican rhetoric on the virus is undercutting their own political base.

My first response to this is: Stop. My second response to this is: Anyway, no.

The United States has seen nearly 900,000 deaths from covid-19 since the pandemic began — at least, given that experts think the actual toll has been undercounted. That’s certainly a lot of people, a death toll that pushed the number of deaths in the country to a record high in 2020. But in the scale of all U.S. residents? It’s about a quarter of a percentage point.

If those deaths were distributed across the United States’ 3,100 or so counties, it’s about 290 in each place. That’s not many, by itself an indicator that the effects would be small. But, of course, U.S. counties come in a wide range of population sizes. Counties in New York City saw far, far more deaths than many other counties — than some states.

So let’s look at the question at a county level. How would the death toll in each county have affect the statewide presidential vote in 2020?

To answer this, we have to first consider an unknown variable: To what extent are deaths actually centered among Republicans? If we look at data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on how those deaths have been distributed by age, we get a hint. Deaths from covid have been disproportionately among older Americans, a population that’s much more heavily Republican. If we compare those deaths with 2020 American National Election Study data on party distribution and then do a little math, we see that — excluding all other factors — we would assume that slightly more Republicans than Democrats had died of covid.

Since we’re considering how the 2020 vote would have changed, I only used deaths since the election. After all, the deaths before the election are already baked into the results. So applying our uniform assessment of the party split of the decedents on a county level and then tallying the results for every county in every state (except Alaska, where results are tallied differently), we see the effects of the post-November 2020 pandemic deaths.

Almost nothing. You can see that below; the arrows (red for states that preferred Donald Trump in 2020 and blue for ones that supported President Biden) showing the change in vote margin before and after our death toll barely budge.

On average, state results shifted 0.02 percentage points to the right. Essentially, each state moved slightly more toward the candidate it already preferred. Using this estimate, no county moved more than 1.3 percentage points in margin. No counties at all flipped from red to blue.

That was all things being equal, of course. The available data suggests that Republicans are more at risk due to lower vaccination rates. So if we assume that 55 percent of deaths were among Republicans, how does that change the math?

Not a lot. Now the average shift among states is 0.02 percentage points to the left. No state flips. The biggest county-level shift in margin is 1.4 points to the left — and no counties actually go from supporting one candidate to the other.

In fact, if we make a wildly unsupported assumption that every death since November 2020 has been a Republican, we can run the same analysis. And the effects don’t change much.

If every death since Nov. 3, 2020, was a Republican, the average state-level shift is 0.4 percentage points to the left. The biggest shift is in New Mexico, obviously not changing the results of that Biden-voting state. At the county level, the biggest movement is 3.2 points to Biden — but only three counties in the country would actually flip. (If you’re curious, those are New York’s Orange and Warren counties and Rice County, Minn.) The effect of 634,000 Republicans dying is that the 2020 election looks much as it did previously.

On average, even if every covid death was of a Republican, the reduction in Republican votes in a county would equal about 2.4 percent of the total number of Democratic voters in the county. So in a county with 10,000 Democrats and 11,000 Republicans, the Republican advantage would fall from 1,000 to 760 votes. Only in close elections even at the county level would that make a difference.

In reality, of course, the effects here would be even smaller. After all, not every person who died of covid-19 was old enough to vote, nor was every death of someone who was registered to vote. Not only is our calculus rough, it’s also inherently overestimating the importance of those deaths.

So that’s that. There will likely be no significant effect, particularly at the national level, from the scale of loss during the coronavirus pandemic. Perhaps that gives people an apparently needed extra reason not to look for some silver lining in a mass mortality event.

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A look back at nearly three decades of British Columbia provincial elections

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British Columbians are voting in the next provincial election on Oct. 19. The NDP is hoping to hold on to power, while those on the right are running in a new political landscape after the former Opposition BC United folded and its Leader Kevin Falcon placed his support behind the B.C. Conservatives.

Here’s a look at B.C. elections over the past three decades:

British Columbia New Democratic Party, 1996

The NDP win a majority government under Glen Clark despite Gordon Campbell’s Liberals winning the largest portion of the popular vote at 41.8 per cent. Clark became leader after former premier Mike Harcourt resigned over money from charity bingo events being siphoned into the party.

British Columbia Liberal Party, 2001

The NDP and then premier Ujjal Dosanjh suffer a resounding defeat at the hands of the British Columbia Liberal party and are only able to hold on to two seats in the legislature. Former premier Glen Clark had resigned in 1999 after he was accused of receiving free renovations from a neighbour who had an application for a casino licence before the government.

British Columbia Liberal Party, 2005

Gordon Campbell’s Liberal party maintains its majority government status though the party drops from 77 seats to 46. The NDP — which came into the election without party status in the legislature with only two seats — grew its support to 33 seats under leader Carole James.

British Columbia Liberal Party, 2009

The Liberals form a majority government again, under Premier Gordon Campbell. He would resign before the next election over his government’s decision to adopt an unpopular Harmonized Sales Tax.

British Columbia Liberal Party, 2013

The Liberals win a fourth straight majority, this time under Christy Clark. She was defeated in her Vancouver Grey-Point riding by lawyer and NDP political rookie David Eby but later won a seat in the legislature in a byelection in the Westside-Kelowna riding. The BC Greens earned their first seat in the legislature, with Andrew Weaver winning in Oak Bay-Gordon Head.

British Columbia New Democratic Party in coalition with Green Party of British Columbia, 2017

The Liberals win a small minority following the 2017 election, but leader Christy Clark loses a confidence vote and resigned. The NDP’s John Horgan became the next premier, after signing a confidence and supply agreement with the support of the three Green members of the legislature. The two parties had a total off 44 seats, the minimum required for a majority.

British Columbia New Democratic Party, 2020

John Horgan calls a snap election one year ahead of the province’s fixed election date and in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Horgan tells reporters he’s calling the election early because the province can’t afford “partisan hectoring and uncertainty about whether bills will pass or not.” The New Democrats win a majority.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Anita Anand sworn in as transport minister after Pablo Rodriguez resigns

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OTTAWA – Treasury Board President Anita Anand has been sworn in as federal transport minister at a ceremony at Rideau Hall, taking over a portfolio left vacant after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet and the Liberal caucus on Thursday.

Anand thanked Rodriguez for his contributions to the government and the country, saying she’s grateful for his guidance and friendship.

She sidestepped a question about the message it sends to have him leave the federal Liberal fold.

“That is a decision that he made independently, and I wish him well,” she said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was not present for the swearing-in ceremony, nor were any other members of the Liberal government.

The shakeup in cabinet comes just days after the Liberals lost a key seat in a Montreal byelection to the Bloc Québécois and amid renewed calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down and make way for a new leader.

Anand said she is not actively seeking leadership of the party, saying she is focused on her roles as minister and as MP.

“My view is that we are a team, and we are a team that has to keep delivering for our country,” she said.

The minority Liberal government is in a more challenging position in the House of Commons after the NDP ended a supply-and-confidence deal that provided parliamentary stability for more than two years.

Non-confidence votes are guaranteed to come from the Opposition Conservatives, who are eager to bring the government down.

On Thursday morning, Rodriguez made a symbolic walk over the Alexandra Bridge from Parliament Hill to Gatineau, Que., where he formally announced his plans to run for the Quebec Liberal party leadership.

He said he will now sit as an Independent member of Parliament, which will allow him to focus on his own priorities.

“I was defending the priorities of the government, and I did it in a very loyal way,” he said.

“It’s normal and it’s what I had to do. But now it’s more about my vision, the vision of the team that I’m building.”

Rodriguez said he will stay on as an MP until the Quebec Liberal leadership campaign officially launches in January.

He said that will “avoid a costly byelection a few weeks, or months, before a general election.”

The next federal election must be held by October 2025.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he will try to topple the government sooner than that, beginning with a non-confidence motion that is set to be debated Sept. 24 and voted on Sept. 25.

Poilievre has called on the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to support him, but both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet have said they will not support the Conservatives.

Rodriguez said he doesn’t want a federal election right away and will vote against the non-confidence motion.

As for how he would vote on other matters before the House of Commons, “it would depend on the votes.”

Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, a non-cabinet role Rodriguez held since 2019.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees and Dylan Robertson

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Political parties cool to idea of new federal regulations for nomination contests

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OTTAWA – Several federal political parties are expressing reservations about the prospect of fresh regulations to prevent foreign meddlers from tainting their candidate nomination processes.

Elections Canada has suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates, requiring parties to publish contest rules and explicitly outlawing behaviour such as voting more than once.

However, representatives of the Bloc Québécois, Green Party and NDP have told a federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference that such changes may be unwelcome, difficult to implement or counterproductive.

The Canada Elections Act currently provides for limited regulation of federal nomination races and contestants.

For instance, only contestants who accept $1,000 in contributions or incur $1,000 in expenses have to file a financial return. In addition, the act does not include specific obligations concerning candidacy, voting, counting or results reporting other than the identity of the successful nominee.

A report released in June by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians expressed concern about how easily foreign actors can take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities to support preferred candidates.

Lucy Watson, national director of the NDP, told the inquiry Thursday she had concerns about the way in which new legislation would interact with the internal decision-making of the party.

“We are very proud of the fact that our members play such a significant role in shaping the internal policies and procedures and infrastructure of the party, and I would not want to see that lost,” she said.

“There are guidelines, there are best practices that we would welcome, but if we were to talk about legal requirements and legislation, that’s something I would have to take away and put further thought into, and have discussions with folks who are integral to the party’s governance.”

In an August interview with the commission of inquiry, Bloc Québécois executive director Mathieu Desquilbet said the party would be opposed to any external body monitoring nomination and leadership contest rules.

A summary tabled Thursday says Desquilbet expressed doubts about the appropriateness of requiring nomination candidates to file a full financial report with Elections Canada, saying the agency’s existing regulatory framework and the Bloc’s internal rules on the matter are sufficient.

Green Party representatives Jon Irwin and Robin Marty told the inquiry in an August interview it would not be realistic for an external body, like Elections Canada, to administer nomination or leadership contests as the resources required would exceed the federal agency’s capacity.

A summary of the interview says Irwin and Marty “also did not believe that rules violations could effectively be investigated by an external body like the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections.”

“The types of complaints that get raised during nomination contests can be highly personal, politically driven, and could overwhelm an external body.”

Marty, national campaign director for the party, told the inquiry Thursday that more reporting requirements would also place an administrative burden on volunteers and riding workers.

In addition, he said that disclosing the vote tally of a nomination contest could actually help foreign meddlers by flagging the precise number of ballots needed for a candidate to be chosen.

Irwin, interim executive director of the Greens, said the ideal tactic for a foreign country would be working to get someone in a “position of power” within a Canadian political party.

He said “the bad guys are always a step ahead” when it comes to meddling in the Canadian political process.

In May, David Vigneault, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time, said it was very clear from the design of popular social media app TikTok that data gleaned from its users is available to the Chinese government.

A December 2022 CSIS memo tabled at the inquiry Thursday said TikTok “has the potential to be exploited” by Beijing to “bolster its influence and power overseas, including in Canada.”

Asked about the app, Marty told the inquiry the Greens would benefit from more “direction and guidance,” given the party’s lack of resources to address such things.

Representatives of the Liberal and Conservative parties are slated to appear at the inquiry Friday, while chief electoral officer Stéphane Perrault is to testify at a later date.

After her party representatives appeared Thursday, Green Leader Elizabeth May told reporters it was important for all party leaders to work together to come up with acceptable rules.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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