But in yet another hectic year for news coverage, climate change still made headlines – not least because of the thousands of peer-reviewed journal papers about climate and energy that are published every year.
These studies were picked up around the world by online news outlets and shared on social media platforms, including Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn. Tracking all these “mentions” was Altmetric, an organisation that scores academic papers according to the media attention they receive.
Using Altmetric data for 2022, Carbon Brief has compiled its now-traditional list of the 25 most talked-about climate or energy-related papers that were published the previous year.
From megafloods to megadroughts and insects to polar bears, last year saw a broad range of headline-grabbing research – as well as a new record-high Altmetric score for a paper in a Carbon Brief annual review.
The infographic above shows which papers made it into the top 10, while the chart at the end of the article shows which journals feature most frequently in the top 25.
Pandemic prominence
As in 2020 and 2021, the most talked-about scientific research of the past year has been about Covid-19.
All but five of the 50 highest scoring papers of 2022 relate to the coronavirus. Those five include twopapers on monkeypox (since renamed “mpox”), one on the global burden of drug-resistant bacteria, one that identifies the Epstein-Barr virus as “the leading cause of multiple sclerosis”, and one finding that, in 2020, firearms became the main cause of deaths in children in the US.
Continuing the theme, the most talked-about climate and energy paper of 2022 also relates to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Just outside the overall top 50, in 56th place, is “Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk”. Published in Nature, the study warns that mammals forced to move to cooler climes amid rising global temperatures are “already” spreading their viruses further – with “undoubtable” impacts for human health.
The research uses modelling to map how climate change could shift the geographic ranges of 3,100 mammal species and the viruses they carry by 2070. It finds that climate change is increasingly driving new encounters between mammal species, raising the risk of novel disease spread. The world’s “biodiversity hotspots” and densely populated parts of Asia and Africa are most likely to be affected.
“Species are going to show up in new combinations because of climate change and, when they do, that’s an opportunity for them to share viruses with each other.”
The relevance of the work was “reinforced by the Covid-19 pandemic”, the paper says, “which began only weeks after the completion of this study”. The authors note that Covid-19 “probably originated in south-east Asian horseshoe bats and may have spread to humans through an as-yet-unknown bridge host”. They add:
“Although we caution against over-interpreting our results as explanatory of the current pandemic, our findings suggest that climate change could easily become the dominant anthropogenic force in viral cross-species transmission, which will undoubtedly have a downstream effect on human health and pandemic risk.”
The paper clocks in with an Altmetric score of 7,803 – the highest score for any climate paper featured in Carbon Brief’s annual reviews and only the second time the top-scoring paper has surpassed 7,000.
(For Carbon Brief’s previous Altmetric articles, see the links for 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015.)
The research was the most talked about on Twitter of any of the top 25 climate papers included here. The paper’s URL was included in more than 10,000 tweets from more than 9,000 accounts, which collectively have almost 39 million followers.
Considering the paper’s timing, it is “not surprising” that connecting climate change with pandemics “gathered a bit of attention”, Carlson tells Carbon Brief.
However, he says, “there’s still a weird pattern where climate gets left out of the conversation [around pandemics] a lot compared to biodiversity loss or wildlife trade”. He adds:
“I think I’ve started to see that change finally, and if we played a part in that, that’s wonderful. Most of my work focuses on the health impacts of climate change, and I think time and time again, we underestimate how bad they’ll be…Climate change is an existential threat to human and animal health, and I hope our study and the conversation around it helped push that envelope a bit.”
His work provides the first comprehensive assessment of climate-related tipping points since the 2008 paper. It identifies 16 climate tipping elements – shown below – and finds a “significant likelihood” that multiple tipping points will be crossed if global temperatures exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
The location of the Earth’s tipping points and when they are likely to be crossed. Credit: Map by Tom Prater, based on McKay et al (2022).
The study was mentioned in 667 news stories from 397 outlets – including the Guardian, New Scientist and BBC News. It received the highest number of mentions in blog posts and Wikipedia pages of the top 25 climate papers – at 55 and 34, respectively. The study also featured in more than 6,000 tweets.
The study was strategically published just days before researchers, economists and civil society representatives gathered in McKay’s home town of Exeter for a conference on the topic of climate tipping points. Carbon Brief attended the conference, and summarised the key talking points, ideas and proposals that emerged.
It is well known that Arctic temperatures are rising much faster than the global average. Previous estimates suggest that the region is warming twice or even three times as quickly as the rest of the world. However, this new study finds that the Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average over the past four decades.
Dr Mika Rantanen – a researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute and lead author on the study – tells Carbon Brief that “Arctic warming and its consequences have become one of the biggest manifestations of climate change”. As such, he says he and his co-authors expected the paper to attract media attention.
True to his expectations, the article was picked up in 765 news stories from 525 outlets, including the Independent, New York Times, Scientific American and Washington Post. “I think that choosing an attractive title was one reason why the paper was picked up so widely,” Rantanen tells Carbon Brief.
The study finds that the “imbalance” of the Greenland ice sheet caused by global warming means it is already committed to contributing “at least” 274mm to global sea levels in future, “regardless of 21st-century climate pathways”.
The research also warned that if Greenland melt was consistently as large as the high-melt year of 2012, this would commit 782mm to sea levels, which serves as “an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a 21st century of warming”.
The study was picked up by 867 news stories from 658 outlets. These include, for example, a Guardian headline warning that major sea level rise from Greenland was now “inevitable”, and an Associated Press article leading on the idea of “zombie ice”:
“That’s doomed ice that, while still attached to thicker areas of ice, is no longer getting replenished by parent glaciers now receiving less snow. Without replenishment, the doomed ice is melting from climate change and will inevitably raise seas.”
“It’s dead ice. It’s just going to melt and disappear from the ice sheet…This ice has been consigned to the ocean, regardless of what climate (emissions) scenario we take now.”
The paper was also picked up by 37 blog posts and 1,671 tweets.
It finds that nearly 60% of pathogen-caused diseases that affect humans have been “at some point aggravated” by climate-related “hazards”, such as warming and drought.
Specifically, the researchers identify how 375 infectious diseases around the world have been affected by a range of climatic hazards. They find that while 16% of infectious diseases have “at times” been reduced by climate hazards, there are more than 1,000 “unique pathways” by which pathogenic diseases were exacerbated by climate change.
The authors warn that these pathways are “too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations” and say that this work highlights the “urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing [greenhouse gas] emissions”.
With an overall Altmetric tally of 6,079, the paper would have scored high enough to secure top spot last year. It was covered by 803 news stories from 582 outlets, 31 posts from 28 blogs, and 2,571 tweets from 2,277 users.
Top 10
Just missing out on a spot in the top five is a “perspective” paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “Climate endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios”. This less-than-cheery article on “catastrophic” outcomes of climate change was referenced in 556 news stories from 428 outlets. The BBC News coverage of the study says:
“Catastrophic climate change outcomes, including human extinction, are not being taken seriously enough by scientists, a new study says. The authors say that the consequences of more extreme warming – still on the cards if no action is taken – are ‘dangerously underexplored’. They argue that the world needs to start preparing for the possibility of what they term the ‘climate endgame’.”
The annual Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change report clocks in at number eight. The paper – under the heading “health at the mercy of fossil fuels” – was mentioned in 521 news stories from 386 outlets. In a striking summary, the report says:
“Worldwide, people are seeing their health increasingly affected by climate change amidst the compounding impacts of Covid-19 and the cost of living and energy crises; governments and companies continue to prioritise fossil fuels over a healthy future despite climate commitments; and rapid, holistic action is the only route to ensuring a just and healthy future.”
The research was picked up in 1,187 new stories – more than any of the other 25 papers included here – including American publications the New York Times, the Washington Post, NBC News and NPR. The paper also topped the tables for blog post mentions, with 76.
The study finds that three-quarters of the Amazon rainforest has lost “resilience” since 2003 – making it more vulnerable to extreme events such as droughts. The work shows we are “approaching a tipping point”, the lead author of the study told journalists at a press conference.
Elsewhere in the top 25
The rest of the top 25 contains a varied mix of papers, including how agriculture and climate change are “reshaping” insect biodiversity worldwide (12th) and the discovery of a “genetically distinct and functionally isolated” population of polar bears from south-eastern Greenland (19th).
Just missing out on the top 10 is, “Global carbon budget 2022”, in 11th place. Published in the journal Earth System Science Data, the paper details the annually estimated “global carbon budget” as produced by the Global Carbon Project.
The latest data shows that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement increased by 1.0% in 2022, hitting a new record high of 36.6bn tonnes of CO2. This rise was “primarily driven by a strong increase in oil emissions as global travel continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic”, the article says, adding that “coal and gas emissions grew more slowly, though both had record emissions in 2022”.
There are several energy-related papers in the top 25. This includes a paper in 15th place from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which finds that “corn-based ethanol in the US has failed to meet the policy’s own greenhouse gas emissions targets and negatively affected water quality, the area of land used for conservation, and other ecosystem processes”. Another is a Joule paper in 20th, which finds that “compared to continuing with a fossil fuel-based system, a rapid green energy transition is likely to result in trillions of net savings”.
The topic of public health features again in the top 25. For example, in 14th place is a Communications Earth & Environment study warning that, under 2C of warming, the exposure to dangerous heat stress “will likely increase by 50-100% across much of the tropics and increase by a factor of 3-10 in many regions throughout the mid-latitudes”.
Research into extreme weather also appears in the top 25. This includes a Nature Communications study in 18th place on the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season – the most active on record – which finds that “human-induced climate change increased the extreme three-hourly storm rainfall rates and extreme three-day accumulated rainfall amounts…for observed storms that are at least tropical storm strength”. A Science Advances paper in 23rd place warns that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing a catastrophic “megaflood” in California.
Finally, rounding out the top 25 is a Nature Geoscience study showing that the Thwaites glacier in west Antarctica has seen “sustained pulses of rapid retreat” in the past two centuries and similar pulses “are likely to occur in the near future”.
All the final scores for the top 25 climate papers of 2022 can be found in this spreadsheet.
Top journals
Across the top 25 papers in Carbon Brief’s leaderboard this year, Nature Climate Change features most frequently with four papers. Nature Climate Change also took first place in 2021 (jointly with Nature) and 2016 (jointly with Science).
In joint-second place is Nature and Science with three papers each. Nature is perennially high-placed in this analysis, taking first – or joint first – spot in Carbon Brief’s top 25 in 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2015.
For the rest of the top 25, there are four journals that appear twice and seven that appear once.
Sutherland House Experts is Empowering Quiet Experts through Compelling Nonfiction in a Changing Ideas Landscape
TORONTO, ON — Almost one year after its launch, Sutherland House Experts is reshaping the publishing industry with its innovative co-publishing model for “quiet experts.” This approach, where expert authors share both costs and profits with the publisher, is bridging the gap between expertise and public discourse. Helping to drive this transformation is Neil Seeman, a renowned author, educator, and entrepreneur.
“The book publishing world is evolving rapidly,” publisher Neil Seeman explains. “There’s a growing hunger for expert voices in public dialogue, but traditional channels often fall short. Sutherland House Experts provides a platform for ‘quiet experts’ to share their knowledge with the broader book-reading audience.”
The company’s roster boasts respected thought leaders whose books are already gaining major traction:
• V. Kumar Murty, a world-renowned mathematician, and past Fields Institute director, just published “The Science of Human Possibilities” under the new press. The book has been declared a 2024 “must-read” by The Next Big Ideas Club and is receiving widespread media attention across North America.
• Eldon Sprickerhoff, co-founder of cybersecurity firm eSentire, is seeing strong pre-orders for his upcoming book, “Committed: Startup Survival Tips and Uncommon Sense for First-Time Tech Founders.”
• Dr. Tony Sanfilippo, a respected cardiologist and professor of medicine at Queen’s University, is generating significant media interest with his forthcoming book, “The Doctors We Need: Imagining a New Path for Physician Recruitment, Training, and Support.”
Seeman, whose recent and acclaimed book, “Accelerated Minds,” explores the entrepreneurial mindset, brings a unique perspective to publishing. His experience as a Senior Fellow at the University of Toronto’s Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, and academic affiliations with The Fields Institute and Massey College, give him deep insight into the challenges faced by people he calls “quiet experts.”
“Our goal is to empower quiet, expert authors to become entrepreneurs of actionable ideas the world needs to hear,” Seeman states. “We are blending scholarly insight with market savvy to create accessible, impactful narratives for a global readership. Quiet experts are people with decades of experience in one or more fields who seek to translate their insights into compelling non-fiction for the world,” says Seeman.
This fall, Seeman is taking his insights to the classroom. He will teach the new course, “The Writer as Entrepreneur,” at the University of Toronto, offering aspiring authors practical tools to navigate the evolving book publishing landscape. To enroll in this new weekly night course starting Tuesday, October 1st, visit: https://learn.utoronto.ca/programs-courses/courses/4121-writer-entrepreneur
“The entrepreneurial ideas industry is changing rapidly,” Seeman notes. “Authors need new skills to thrive in this dynamic environment. My course and our publishing model provide those tools.”
About Neil Seeman: Neil Seeman is co-founder and publisher of Sutherland House Experts, an author, educator, entrepreneur, and mental health advocate. He holds appointments at the University of Toronto, The Fields Institute, and Massey College. His work spans entrepreneurship, public health, and innovative publishing models.
Hallmark launching a streaming service with two new original series, and Bill Skarsgård out for revenge in “Boy Kills World” are some of the new television, films, music and games headed to a device near you.
Also among the streaming offerings worth your time as selected by The Associated Press’ entertainment journalists: Alex Garland’s “Civil War” starring Kirsten Dunst, Natasha Rothwell’s heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone” and Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts.
NEW MOVIES TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15
— Alex Garland’s “Civil War” is finally making its debut on MAX on Friday. The film stars Kirsten Dunst as a veteran photojournalist covering a violent war that’s divided America; She reluctantly allows an aspiring photographer, played by Cailee Spaeny, to tag along as she, an editor (Stephen McKinley Henderson) and a reporter (Wagner Moura) make the dangerous journey to Washington, D.C., to interview the president (Nick Offerman), a blustery, rising despot who has given himself a third term, taken to attacking his citizens and shut himself off from the press. In my review, I called it a bellowing and haunting experience; Smart and thought-provoking with great performances. It’s well worth a watch.
— Joey King stars in Netflix’s adaptation of Scott Westerfeld’s “Uglies,” about a future society in which everyone is required to have beautifying cosmetic surgery at age 16. Streaming on Friday, McG directed the film, in which King’s character inadvertently finds herself in the midst of an uprising against the status quo. “Outer Banks” star Chase Stokes plays King’s best friend.
— Bill Skarsgård is out for revenge against the woman (Famke Janssen) who killed his family in “Boy Kills World,” coming to Hulu on Friday. Moritz Mohr directed the ultra-violent film, of which Variety critic Owen Gleiberman wrote: “It’s a depraved vision, yet I got caught up in its kick-ass revenge-horror pizzazz, its disreputable commitment to what it was doing.”
— The year was 2006. Snow Patrol, the Northern Irish-Scottish alternative rock band, released an album, “Eyes Open,” producing the biggest hit of their career: “Chasing Cars.” A lot has happened in the time since — three, soon to be four quality full-length albums, to be exact. On Friday, the band will release “The Forest Is the Path,” their first new album in seven years. Anthemic pop-rock is the name of the game across songs of love and loss, like “All,”“The Beginning” and “This Is the Sound Of Your Voice.”
— For fans of raucous guitar music, Jordan Peele’s 2022 sci-fi thriller, “NOPE,” provided a surprising, if tiny, thrill. One of the leads, Emerald “Em” Haywood portrayed by Keke Palmer, rocks a Jesus Lizard shirt. (Also featured through the film: Rage Against the Machine, Wipers, Mr Bungle, Butthole Surfers and Earth band shirts.) The Austin noise rock band are a less than obvious pick, having been signed to the legendary Touch and Go Records and having stopped releasing new albums in 1998. That changes on Friday the 13th, when “Rack” arrives. And for those curious: The Jesus Lizard’s intensity never went away.
— Hallmark launched a streaming service called Hallmark+ on Tuesday with two new original series, the scripted drama “The Chicken Sisters” and unscripted series “Celebrations with Lacey Chabert.” If you’re a Hallmark holiday movies fan, you know Chabert. She’s starred in more than 30 of their films and many are holiday themed. Off camera, Chabert has a passion for throwing parties and entertaining. In “Celebrations,” deserving people are surprised with a bash in their honor — planned with Chabert’s help. “The Chicken Sisters” stars Schuyler Fisk, Wendie Malick and Lea Thompson in a show about employees at rival chicken restaurants in a small town. The eight-episode series is based on a novel of the same name.
— Natasha Rothwell of “Insecure” and “The White Lotus” fame created and stars in a new heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone.” She plays Mel, a broke, go-along-to-get-along, single, airport employee who, after a near-death experience, makes the conscious decision to take risks and pursue her dreams. Rothwell has been working on the series for the past eight years and described it to The AP as “the most vulnerable piece of art I’ve ever put into the world.” Like Mel, Rothwell had to learn to bet on herself to make the show she wanted to make. “In the Venn diagram of me and Mel, there’s significant overlap,” said Rothwell. It premieres Friday on Hulu.
— Shailene Woodley, DeWanda Wise and Betty Gilpin star in a new drama for Starz called “Three Women,” about entrepreneur Sloane, homemaker Lina and student Maggie who are each stepping into their power and making life-changing decisions. They’re interviewed by a writer named Gia (Woodley.) The series is based on a 2019 best-selling book of the same name by Lisa Taddeo. “Three Women” premieres Friday on Starz.
— Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts Sunday on Paramount+. Stallone plays Dwight Manfredi, a mafia boss who was recently released from prison after serving 25 years. He’s sent to Tulsa to set up a new crime syndicate. The series is created by Taylor Sheridan of “Yellowstone” fame.
— One thing about the title of Focus Entertainment’s Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 — you know exactly what you’re in for. You are Demetrian Titus, a genetically enhanced brute sent into battle against the Tyranids, an insectoid species with an insatiable craving for human flesh. You have a rocket-powered suit of armor and an arsenal of ridiculous weapons like the “Chainsword,” the “Thunderhammer” and the “Melta Rifle,” so what could go wrong? Besides the squishy single-player mode, there are cooperative missions and six-vs.-six free-for-alls. You can suit up now on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S or PC.
— Likewise, Wild Bastards isn’t exactly the kind of title that’s going to attract fans of, say, Animal Crossing. It’s another sci-fi shooter, but the protagonists are a gang of 13 varmints — aliens and androids included — who are on the run from the law. Each outlaw has a distinctive set of weapons and special powers: Sarge, for example, is a robot with horse genes, while Billy the Squid is … well, you get the idea. Australian studio Blue Manchu developed the 2019 cult hit Void Bastards, and this Wild-West-in-space spinoff has the same snarky humor and vibrant, neon-drenched cartoon look. Saddle up on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S, Nintendo Switch or PC.
Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of a significant financial decision that could have far-reaching implications for both his personal wealth and the future of his fledgling social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). As the lockup period on his shares in TMTG, which owns Truth Social, nears its end, Trump could soon be free to sell his substantial stake in the company. However, the potential payday, which makes up a large portion of his net worth, comes with considerable risks for Trump and his supporters.
Trump’s stake in TMTG comprises nearly 59% of the company, amounting to 114,750,000 shares. As of now, this holding is valued at approximately $2.6 billion. These shares are currently under a lockup agreement, a common feature of initial public offerings (IPOs), designed to prevent company insiders from immediately selling their shares and potentially destabilizing the stock. The lockup, which began after TMTG’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), is set to expire on September 25, though it could end earlier if certain conditions are met.
Should Trump decide to sell his shares after the lockup expires, the market could respond in unpredictable ways. The sale of a substantial number of shares by a major stakeholder like Trump could flood the market, potentially driving down the stock price. Daniel Bradley, a finance professor at the University of South Florida, suggests that the market might react negatively to such a large sale, particularly if there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the supply. This could lead to a sharp decline in the stock’s value, impacting both Trump’s personal wealth and the company’s market standing.
Moreover, Trump’s involvement in Truth Social has been a key driver of investor interest. The platform, marketed as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media, has attracted a loyal user base largely due to Trump’s presence. If Trump were to sell his stake, it might signal a lack of confidence in the company, potentially shaking investor confidence and further depressing the stock price.
Trump’s decision is also influenced by his ongoing legal battles, which have already cost him over $100 million in legal fees. Selling his shares could provide a significant financial boost, helping him cover these mounting expenses. However, this move could also have political ramifications, especially as he continues his bid for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race.
Trump Media’s success is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes. The company’s stock has shown volatility in response to developments in the presidential race, with Trump’s chances of winning having a direct impact on the stock’s value. If Trump sells his stake, it could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in his own political future, potentially undermining both his campaign and the company’s prospects.
Truth Social, the flagship product of TMTG, has faced challenges in generating traffic and advertising revenue, especially compared to established social media giants like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. Despite this, the company’s valuation has remained high, fueled by investor speculation on Trump’s political future. If Trump remains in the race and manages to secure the presidency, the value of his shares could increase. Conversely, any missteps on the campaign trail could have the opposite effect, further destabilizing the stock.
As the lockup period comes to an end, Trump faces a critical decision that could shape the future of both his personal finances and Truth Social. Whether he chooses to hold onto his shares or cash out, the outcome will likely have significant consequences for the company, its investors, and Trump’s political aspirations.
