Newly elected Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) voted his conscience on Jan. 13, 2021. A week after rioters overran the U.S. Capitol, he joined with the Democratic majority in the House to impeach President Donald Trump for having stoked the violence that had filled the surrounding hallways. It was a principled stand, if to many an obvious one, and one that Meijer soon understood to be imperiling his own political future.
Politics
Analysis | The complicated, often cynical politics of fighting for democracy – The Washington Post
On Tuesday, that peril was manifested. Meijer’s bid for a second term was blocked when Republican primary voters in his district cast more ballots for John Gibbs, a former Trump administration official who had embraced Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election. One of the first votes Meijer took in Congress would be central to his ouster.
But, as you may know, that’s not the whole story. Unlike other Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, Meijer represented a district that wasn’t solidly red. To critics of Trump, he deserved praise for being willing to buck his party on the impeachment vote. But to Democrats tasked with holding the House, he was still a Republican, one who was otherwise reliable in casting votes with his party’s caucus against the narrow Democratic majority. So a complicated chain of reasoning ensued: Meijer’s district could elect a Republican but not one who could point to his voting record to appeal to voters from both parties. Get someone like Gibbs in there, someone whose track record would be viewed with unmitigated distaste by Democrats and many independents, and maybe gain more breathing space in the party’s uphill fight for a 2023 majority.
So the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) spent about as much on an ad promoting Gibbs than Gibbs himself had raised as of the middle of last month. And then Gibbs won.
This situation, a distillation of various tensions on the right, on the left and nationally, has been subject to significant scrutiny over the past few weeks. It is, in fact, revealing about all sides involved — but some useful nuance has been lost.
Let’s consider the results in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, then, by asking three questions.
- Did Meijer lose because of the Democratic intervention?
- How much support did Gibbs have?
- Was this just the grim art of politics?
Should you not wish to read further, the answers are “probably not,” “enough” and “no.”
Did Meijer lose because of the Democratic intervention?
A quiet secret in politics is that much of it is less science than art. Campaign consultants will tell you they know how to win for the same reason that weight-loss systems will tell you they know how to help you shed unwanted pounds. But in part because elections are increasingly complicated systems with a lot of moving parts and because there are often poor controls for measuring effectiveness, a lot of campaigning comes down to guesswork, instinct, habit and luck.
In close races, things get more complicated still. If your candidate wins narrowly, lots of factors might have contributed to the win — and lots of people who were involved in those factors (creating direct mail, endorsing, calling voters) will try to take credit for the narrow margin.
The Meijer-Gibbs race was relatively close but not a squeaker. Gibbs won by just under 4 percentage points, enough of a margin that observers could call the race on election night. In other words, this was likely not a race in which a small push made the difference.
Was the DCCC ad a small push? The committee spent a bit under $500,000 on a spot that began running in late July. That’s more than a month after early voting began in the contest, though. And in recent years, Republicans have been more likely to vote on Election Day itself. It seems to have been designed to be a last-minute prod for voters — perhaps to reduce the likelihood that Republican primary voters would hear news reports about Democrats being more worried about facing Meijer in November.
It’s hard to argue that the ad — run when election ad time was at its most expensive — was the sole reason that Gibbs got about 4,000 more votes than Meijer. I don’t think many people would argue that individual last-minute TV spots can make a 4-point difference in a House primary. Again, it’s hard to know what would have happened had the spot not run, but there is certainly reason to think that Meijer’s fate was affected more by Trump’s endorsement of Gibbs last year than the DCCC’s intervention in this one.
How much support did Gibbs have?
Speaking to CNN on Wednesday morning, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) blasted the DCCC’s ad. “If Peter’s opponent wins and goes on in November to win, the Democrats own that. Congratulations,” he said on CNN’s “New Day.”
Kinzinger also voted to impeach Trump in January 2021. But he has gone further, serving on the House select committee investigating the Capitol riot and embracing the role of one of the foremost anti-Trump voices within his party.
“Don’t keep coming to me asking where are all the good Republicans that defend democracy,” he continued on CNN, “and then take your donors’ money to spend half a million dollars promoting one of the worst election deniers that’s out there.”
Kinzinger’s “the Democrats own that” is interesting. That’s not simply because of the question of ownership, which we just assessed, but also because it attributes full culpability to the left. The implication for a viewer is clear: Meijer lost because of the DCCC.
Yet consider Kinzinger himself. Like several other Republicans who voted to impeach, Kinzinger decided to retire instead of battling through a Republican primary. (His House district was redrawn to force him into competition with another incumbent representative — one who didn’t vote to impeach. Meijer’s was also redrawn to make it more blue, contributing to the DCCC’s decision to target it.) Kinzinger’s retirement has clearly colored how he understood his party to have shifted and by the recognition that his view of Trump and the 2020 election was unpopular with the GOP.
Consider our first question in a different context. If Michael Jordan scores 90 of the Bulls’ 96 points in a 5-point win over the Nets, should the win be credited to the 6 points scored by Scottie Pippen? Even if those were the last 6 points scored, wouldn’t it be sensible to give Jordan substantial credit for the win? (Extending this analogy to Michigan, of course, we don’t know how many points Pippen scored. Maybe none! But that’s beside the immediate point.)
In other contexts, Kinzinger recognizes that Republicans have moved from a party that might appreciate holding Trump accountable for the Capitol riot to one that demands that its candidates demonstrate loyalty to Trumpism. The DCCC ad, shown above, simply elevates the mutual appreciation between Gibbs and Trump. It explicitly aims to leverage the existing predilection for Trumpism within the electorate. It’s Pippen scoring points because Jordan is under quadruple coverage.
Writing for the Bulwark, Jonathan Last used a different analogy. If he ran ads for poison suggesting that it was healthy, and people drank the poison, it’s his fault that they got sick. If, however, he ran spots noting the poison’s toxic effects, but people drank it anyway — who’s to blame?
Was this just the grim art of politics?
But there is a totally fair point to raise in response to that analogy: If you knew that even your negative spot might lead more people to drinking the poison, why would you run it?
Some Democrats have waved away the DCCC’s intervention as normal political jockeying. There have certainly been past examples of party committees boosting fringe candidates in the (often successful) hope that they will prove to be easier to beat in the general election. The most common example here is Sharron Angle, who Sen. Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) helped win her party’s primary in 2010 just to beat her that November.
What’s happening at the moment, though, is different. Democrats and Republicans like Kinzinger and Meijer have been raising alarms about the threat to democracy itself posed by pro-Trump candidates and rhetoric. The DCCC has the very direct goal of winning as many seats as possible. But in this case it actively sought to do so by helping to increase the likelihood that the House will have one more member who might reject the results of a close election.
Writing for the New Yorker, Amy Davidson Sorkin points out that the effects are not solely electoral.
“[E]ven if it helps the Democrats win some seats … it habituates Republicans — voters, activists, local officials — in the practice of uniting behind extremists after the primary,” she wrote. “It cajoles them into discarding whatever taboos might be left at this point. And making the most conspiratorial voices the loudest changes the tone of the political conversation.”
In other words, the DCCC spot and other similar interventions aim to intentionally leverage and stoke distrust of the system. They’re using reverse psychology to sell poison. As writer Josh Barro notes, this may itself be a cynical long-term play: making it less likely that any moderate (and potentially more-viable) Republican candidate will want to set up shop in a poison-focused bazaar.
“The Democrats are justifying this political jiu-jitsu by making the argument that politics is a tough business. I don’t disagree,” Meijer wrote earlier this week. “But that toughness is bound by certain moral limits: Those who participated in the attack on the Capitol, for example, clearly fall outside those limits. But over the course of the midterms, Democrats seem to have forgotten just where those limits lie.”
He went on to note (as I have in the past) that this sort of hyperclever selection of preferred candidates is particularly fraught in a year that continues to show significant signs of being a particularly good one for Republicans. The year 2010 was also good for Republicans (for many of the same reasons), but if Sharron Angle won, it meant one fewer Democratic vote. Her win didn’t increase the number of federal officials open to subverting elections themselves.
On Wednesday, Meijer and Gibbs participated in an event in Michigan at which Meijer offered Gibbs his endorsement for November. It was billed as a “unity” event, one in which the two candidates set aside their primary season differences to come together as Republicans.
The irony of such an event is obvious. Meijer lost in large part because he is disunited from his party on a central issue — an issue that was at the center of his fight against Gibbs, who took the opposite position. But for Meijer, as for the DCCC, having that vote for his party in the House took priority.
Not that he would be inclined at this point to make the DCCC’s job any easier.
Canada called for “all parties” to de-escalate rising tensions in the Mideast following an apparent Israeli drone attack against Iran overnight.
G7 foreign ministers, including Canada’s, and the High Representative for the European Union released a public statement Friday morning. The statement condemned Iran’s “direct and unprecedented attack” on April 13, which saw Western allies intercept more than 100 bomb-carrying drones headed towards Israel, the G7 countries said.
Prior to the Iranian attack, a previous airstrike, widely blamed on Israel, destroyed Iran’s consulate in Syria, killing 12 people including two elite Iranian generals.
“I join my G7 colleagues in urging all parties to work to prevent further escalation,” wrote Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly in a post on X Friday.
More details to come.
Politics
Politics Briefing: Labour leader targets Poilievre, calls him 'anti-worker politician' – The Globe and Mail
Hello,
Pierre Poilievre is a fraud when it comes to empowering workers, says the president of Canada’s largest labour organization.
Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, targeted the federal Conservative Leader in a speech in Ottawa today as members of the labour movement met to develop a strategic approach to the next federal election, scheduled for October, 2025.
“Whatever he claims today, Mr. Poilievre has a consistent 20-year record as an anti-worker politician,” said Bruske, whose congress represents more than three million workers.
She rhetorically asked whether the former federal cabinet minister has ever walked a picket line, or supported laws to strengthen workers’ voices.
“Mr. Poilievre sure is fighting hard to get himself power, but he’s never fought for worker power,” she said.
“We must do everything in our power to expose Pierre Poilievre as the fraud that he is.”
The Conservative Leader, whose party is running ahead of its rivals in public-opinion polls, has declared himself a champion of “the common people,” and been courting the working class as he works to build support.
Mr. Poilievre’s office today pushed back on the arguments against him.
Sebastian Skamski, media-operations director, said Mr. Poilievre, unlike other federal leaders, is connecting with workers.
In a statement, Skamski said NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has sold out working Canadians by co-operating with the federal Liberal government, whose policies have created challenges for Canadian workers with punishing taxes and inflation.
“Pierre Poilievre is the one listening and speaking to workers on shop floors and in union halls from coast to coast to coast,” said Mr. Skamski.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mr. Singh are scheduled to speak to the gathering today. Mr. Poilievre was not invited to speak.
Asked during a post-speech news conference about the Conservative Leader’s absence, Bruske said the gathering is focused on worker issues, and Poilievre’s record as an MP and in government shows he has voted against rights, benefits and wage increases for workers.
“We want to make inroads with politicians that will consistently stand up for workers, and consistently engage with us,” she said.
This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.
TODAY’S HEADLINES
Pierre Poilievre’s top adviser not yet contacted in Lobbying Commissioner probe: The federal Lobbying Commissioner has yet to be in touch with Jenni Byrne as the watchdog probes allegations of inappropriate lobbying by staff working both in Byrne’s firm and a second one operating out of her office.
Métis groups will trudge on toward self-government as bill faces another setback: Métis organizations in Ontario and Alberta say they’ll stay on the path toward self-government, despite the uncertain future of a contentious bill meant to do just that.
Liberals buck global trend in ‘doubling down’ on foreign aid, as sector urges G7 push: The federal government pledged in its budget this week to increase humanitarian aid by $150-million in the current fiscal year and $200-million the following year.
Former B.C. finance minister running for the federal Conservatives: Mike de Jong says he will look to represent the Conservatives in Abbotsford-South Langley, which is being created out of part of the Abbotsford riding now held by departing Tory MP Ed Fast.
Ottawa’s new EV tax credit raises hope of big new Honda investment: The proposed measure would provide companies with a 10-per-cent rebate on the costs of constructing new buildings to be used in the electric-vehicle supply chain. Story here.
Sophie Grégoire Trudeau embraces uncertainty in new memoir, Closer Together: “I’m a continuous, curious, emotional adventurer and explorer of life and relationships,” Grégoire Trudeau told The Globe and Mail during a recent interview. “I’ve always been curious and interested and fascinated by human contact.”
TODAY’S POLITICAL QUOTES
“Sometimes you’re in a situation. You just can’t win. You say one thing. You get one community upset. You say another. You get another community upset.” – Ontario Premier Doug Ford, at a news conference in Oakville today, commenting on the Ontario legislature Speaker banning the wearing in the House of the traditional keffiyeh scarf. Ford opposes the ban, but it was upheld after the news conference in the provincial legislature.
“No, I plan to be a candidate in the next election under Prime Minister Trudeau’s leadership. I’m very happy. I’m excited about that. I’m focused on the responsibilities he gave me. It’s a big job. I’m enjoying it and I’m optimistic that our team and the Prime Minister will make the case to Canadians as to why we should be re-elected.” – Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, before Question Period today, on whether he is interested in the federal Liberal leadership, and succeeding Justin Trudeau as prime minister.
THIS AND THAT
Today in the Commons: Projected Order of Business at the House of Commons, April. 18, accessible here.
Deputy Prime Minister’s Day: Private meetings in Burlington, Ont., then Chrystia Freeland toured a manufacturing facility, discussed the federal budget and took media questions. Freeland then travelled to Washington, D.C., for spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. Freeland also attended a meeting of the Five Eyes Finance Ministers hosted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and held a Canada-Ukraine working dinner on mobilizing Russian assets in support of Ukraine.
Ministers on the Road: Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly is on the Italian island of Capri for the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting. Heritage Minister Pascale St-Onge, in the Quebec town of Farnham, made an economic announcement, then held a brief discussion with agricultural workers and took media questions. Privy Council President Harjit Sajjan made a federal budget announcement in the Ontario city of Welland. Families Minister Jenna Sudds made an economic announcement in the Ontario city of Belleville.
Commons Committee Highlights: Treasury Board President Anita Anand appeared before the public-accounts committee on the auditor-general’s report on the ArriveCan app, and Karen Hogan, Auditor-General of Canada, later appeared on government spending. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Gary Anandasangaree appears before the status-of-women committee on the Red Dress Alert. Competition Bureau Commissioner Matthew Boswell and Yves Giroux, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, appeared before the finance committee on Bill C-59. Former Prince Edward Island premier Robert Ghiz, now the president and chief executive officer of the Canadian Telecommunications Association, is among the witnesses appearing before the human-resources committee on Bill C-58, An act to amend the Canada Labour Code. Caroline Maynard, Canada’s Information Commissioner, appears before the access-to-information committee on government spending. Michel Patenaude, chief inspector at the Sûreté du Québec, appeared before the public-safety committee on car thefts in Canada.
In Ottawa: Governor-General Mary Simon presented the Governor-General’s Literary Awards during a ceremony at Rideau Hall, and, in the evening, was scheduled to speak at the 2024 Indspire Awards to honour Indigenous professionals and youth.
PRIME MINISTER’S DAY
Justin Trudeau met with Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe at city hall. Sutcliffe later said it was the first time a sitting prime minister has visited city hall for a meeting with the mayor. Later, Trudeau delivered remarks to a Canada council meeting of the Canadian Labour Congress.
LEADERS
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet held a media scrum at the House of Commons ahead of Question Period.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre attends a party fundraising event at a private residence in Mississauga.
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May attended the House of Commons.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in Ottawa, met with Saskatchewan’s NDP Leader, Carla Beck, and, later, Ken Price, the chief of the K’ómoks First Nation,. In the afternoon, he delivered a speech to a Canadian Labour Congress Canadian council meeting.
THE DECIBEL
On today’s edition of The Globe and Mail podcast, Sanjay Ruparelia, an associate professor at Toronto Metropolitan University and Jarislowsky Democracy Chair, explains why India’s elections matter for democracy – and the balance of power for the rest of the world. The Decibel is here.
PUBLIC OPINION
Declining trust in federal and provincial governments: A new survey finds a growing proportion of Canadians do not trust the federal or provincial governments to make decisions on health care, climate change, the economy and immigration.
OPINION
On Haida Gwaii, an island of change for Indigenous land talks
“For more than a century, the Haida Nation has disputed the Crown’s dominion over the land, air and waters of Haida Gwaii, a lush archipelago roughly 150 kilometres off the coast of British Columbia. More than 20 years ago, the First Nation went to the Supreme Court of Canada with a lawsuit that says the islands belong to the Haida, part of a wider legal and political effort to resolve scores of land claims in the province. That case has been grinding toward a conclusion that the B.C. government was increasingly convinced would end in a Haida victory.” – The Globe and Mail Editorial Board.
The RCMP raid the home of ArriveCan contractor as Parliament scolds
“The last time someone was called before the bar of the House of Commons to answer MPs’ inquiries, it was to demand that a man named R.C. Miller explain how his company got government contracts to supply lights, burners and bristle brushes for lighthouses. That was 1913. On Wednesday, Kristian Firth, the managing partner of GCStrategies, one of the key contractors on the federal government’s ArriveCan app, was called to answer MPs’ queries. Inside the Commons, it felt like something from another century.” – Campbell Clark
First Nations peoples have lost confidence in Thunder Bay’s police force
“Thunder Bay has become ground zero for human-rights violations against Indigenous Peoples in Canada. Too many sudden and suspicious deaths of Indigenous Peoples have not been investigated properly. There have been too many reports on what is wrong with policing in the city – including ones by former chair of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission Murray Sinclair and former Toronto Police board chair Alok Mukherjee, and another one called “Broken Trust,” in which the Office of the Independent Police Review Director said the Thunder Bay Police Service (TBPS) was guilty of “systemic racism” in 2018. – Tanya Talaga.
The failure of Canada’s health care system is a disgrace – and a deadly one
“What can be said about Canada’s health care system that hasn’t been said countless times over, as we watch more and more people suffer and die as they wait for baseline standards of care? Despite our delusions, we don’t have “world-class” health care, as our Prime Minister has said; we don’t even have universal health care. What we have is health care if you’re lucky, or well connected, or if you happen to have a heart attack on a day when your closest ER is merely overcapacity as usual, and not stuffed to the point of incapacitation.” – Robyn Urback.
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GOP strategist reacts to Trump’s ‘unconventional’ request
Donald Trump’s campaign is asking Republican candidates and committees using the former president’s name and likeness to fundraise to give at least 5% of what they raise to the campaign, according to a letter obtained by CNN. CNN’s Steve Contorno and Republican strategist Rina Shah weigh in.
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