Both situations rely on a Foreign Policy 101 premise: Threat equals hostile intent plus capability. If you’re America, France’s nuclear arsenal isn’t a threat (capability but no intent), while keeping Iran from getting nukes is about preventing intent from acquiring capability.
The analogy is far from perfect. Trump is no Putin, much as he admires the Russian leader. But you could hear echoes of the intent-plus-capability equation through the weekend news media analysis of Trump’s current and future role in American politics.
On Sunday, my colleagues Michael Scherer and Josh Dawsey looked at an aspect of the former president’s capability to grab the 2024 GOP nomination: His hold on the party, over which he wields unquestionably vast influence that is maybe waning.
“[C]lashes between Republican leaders and the candidates Trump has embraced have been playing out across the country with growing ferocity in recent months, a chaotic sign that Trump’s once unchallenged hold on the party and rank-and-file supporters is waning, even if by degrees,” Mike and Josh wrote.
“The former president’s power within the party and his continued focus on personal grievances is increasingly questioned behind closed doors at Republican gatherings, according to interviews with more than a dozen prominent Republicans in Washington and across the country, including some Trump advisers. Many spoke on the condition of anonymity because there remains significant fear of attracting Trump’s public wrath.”
Now, the idea that lots of people say Trump’s sway over the GOP is weakening, but will only do so if they can stay anonymous to avoid his wrath, doesn’t exactly sound like his influence has collapsed.
Over at the New York Times, Jonathan Martin took a look at Trump resistance among some top Republicans, zeroing in on efforts by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and former president George W. Bush to enlist non-Trump-y candidates.
“As Mr. Trump works to retain his hold on the Republican Party, elevating a slate of friendly candidates in midterm elections, Mr. McConnell and his allies are quietly, desperately maneuvering to try to thwart him. The loose alliance, which was once thought of as the G.O.P. establishment, for months has been engaged in a high-stakes candidate recruitment campaign, full of phone calls, meetings, polling memos and promises of millions of dollars. It’s all aimed at recapturing the Senate majority, but the election also represents what could be Republicans’ last chance to reverse the spread of Trumpism before it fully consumes their party,” Jonathan wrote.
“Mr. McConnell for years pushed Mr. Trump’s agenda and only rarely opposed him in public. But the message that he delivers privately now is unsparing, if debatable: Mr. Trump is losing political altitude and need not be feared in a primary.”
As Jonathan noted, sitting senators have spurned Trump’s calls to repudiate McConnell. But enlisting Senate candidates isn’t going according to plan.
“History doesn’t bode well for such behind-the-scene efforts to challenge Mr. Trump, and Mr. McConnell’s hard sell is so far yielding mixed results. The former president has rallied behind fewer far-right candidates than initially feared by the party’s old guard. Yet a handful of formidable contenders have spurned Mr. McConnell’s entreaties, declining to subject themselves to Mr. Trump’s wrath all for the chance to head to a bitterly divided Washington.”
Also over at the New York Times, Shane Goldmacher and Eric Lipton noted the definite upside of the will-he-won’t-he for Trump’s personal finances, as he broadens his empire in a way that “has thoroughly blurred the lines between his political ambitions and his business interests.”
Shane and Eric chronicled how Trump promotes his private merchandise at rallies and markets MAGA gear online. They also highlight how Trump’s political entities spend lavishly at his properties — in effect, fattening his wallet with political donations.
“In 2021, Mr. Trump’s political committees spent more than $600,000 on Trump properties for rent, meals, meeting expenses and hotel stays, records show. His PAC continued to make monthly $37,541.67 rent payments to Trump Tower Commercial LLC.”
“The roughly $375,000 the PAC paid in Trump Tower rent was more than the total of $350,000 that Mr. Trump’s group donated to the scores of federal and state-level political candidates he endorsed in 2021,” they wrote.
And that could speak to intent.
Putin leaves a door to diplomacy open, as European, U.S. leaders race to defuse Ukraine crisis
“Russian President Vladimir Putin left the door open Monday to further talks with Western leaders on his efforts to end NATO’s open door policy, when his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the scope for dialogue was ‘far from exhausted’ and called for intensified talks with Washington and NATO,” Robyn Dixon, Loveday Morris and Rachel Pannett report.
Father of Parkland shooting victim protests on construction crane near White House
“The father of one of the 17 people killed four years ago in the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., protested from a construction crane Monday morning near the White House, where he tweeted a video requesting a meeting with President Biden,” Ellie Silverman and Peter Hermann report.
John Eastman claims attorney-client privilege over documents sought by Jan. 6 investigators
“Attorney John Eastman, a close ally of Donald Trump amid his effort to subvert the 2020 election, has attempted to shield more than 10,000 pages of emails and counting from congressional investigators, citing attorney client or attorney work-product privileges,” Poltico’s Kyle Cheney reports.
“The staggering total comes amid a court-ordered review by Eastman of more than 94,000 pages of emails the Jan. 6 select committee has subpoenaed from Eastman’s former employer, Chapman University. Eastman sued to block the subpoena but a federal judge last month denied that effort and ordered him to begin reviewing the emails and itemizing his privilege claims.”
Lunchtime reads from The Post
Activists who defended VP Harris now mobilizing for Supreme Court pick
“Black activists and women’s groups that banded together to protect Kamala D. Harris from racist and sexist attacks before and after the 2020 election are remobilizing for the battle over President Biden’s upcoming Supreme Court nomination, concerned that the president’s pledge to pick a Black woman has sparked racially charged challenges that are already impacting potential candidates,” Annie Linskey reports.
“The efforts … reflect the turbulent politics surrounding the first Black woman to sit on the Supreme Court, whom Biden plans to pick by month’s end. Civil rights groups note that this will be only the eighth person in the court’s more than two centuries of history who is not a White man, but some Republicans are casting Biden’s pledge as a form of racial tokenism.”
‘Survival mode’: Inflation falls hardest on low-income Americans
“While inflation is rising everywhere, price hikes are particularly devastating to lower-income households with already tight budgets. Nearly all their expenses go to necessities — food, energy, housing — which have seen some of the largest increases at different points over the past year,” Rachel Siegel and Andrew Van Dam report.
“Of the 10 categories with the highest levels of pandemic inflation analyzed by The Washington Post, lower earners spent a greater share of their total spending on most of them, from natural gas to beef. (The highest earners outspent the lowest on cars and furniture.)”
What the week ahead could mean for the fate of Ukraine
“A convergence of events over the coming week could determine whether the stalemate is resolved peacefully or Europe is at war. At stake are Europe’s post-Cold War security architecture and long-agreed limits on the deployment of conventional military and nuclear forces there.”
The Judiciary Committee wants you to know it’s past the Kavanaugh drama
“It’s hard to overstate how personal the animosity on the Senate Judiciary Committee became during the Kavanaugh fight, as late-breaking accusations of sexual assault against the judge pitted furious Democrat against seething Republican. Those tensions still ripple through the panel as it prepares to consider the nation’s first Black woman Supreme Court nominee this year,” Politico’s Marianne Levine reports.
“Judiciary members on both sides of the aisle predict that the still-unnamed nominee’s confirmation hearing will be civil. But the panel’s handling of her forthcoming selection by Joe Biden, the first former Judiciary chair in modern history to send the chamber a Supreme Court hopeful, will challenge senators to set a new tone with each other — and the pick herself. Washington will be watching whether the often contentious committee can offer the public a less divisive and politicized image of the high court.”
Outrage in Afghanistan after Biden’s decision on frozen funds
“The move, which would effectively bankrupt the country’s central bank, adds to the growing animosity that many Afghans have felt toward the United States since the troop withdrawal that paved the way for the Taliban’s takeover of the country in August.”
On Parkland anniversary, Biden urges Congress on gun control
“Four years after 17 people were gunned down at Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, President Joe Biden says his administration stands with the advocates working to end gun violence and is urging the nation to uphold the ‘solemn obligation’ to ‘keep each other safe,’” the Associated Press’s Zeke Miller and Colleen Long report.
Biden’s free covid tests plan shortchanges Americans of color and hardest-hit communities, say health workers and activists
“When President Biden first announced plans to ship 500 million free coronavirus tests to Americans, the move was largely lauded. But some public health experts and community activists say the plan’s limit of four tests per household will force the tens of millions of Americans who live in multigenerational homes to make difficult — and risky — decisions about who gets to use them,” Silvia Foster-Frau reports.
Pressed on inflation, Biden calls Lester Holt a ‘wise guy’
“’I think it was back in July, you said inflation was going to be temporary,’ he asked Biden. ‘I think a lot of Americans are wondering what your definition of temporary is?’”
“The president pushed back: ‘Well, you’re being a wise guy with me a little bit. And I understand, that’s your job.’”
Florida’s redistricting, visualized
“Days before the Florida state Senate was to vote on new congressional district lines in January, DeSantis presented a dramatically more partisan map that boosted Republican seats and eliminated a district where a plurality of voters are Black,” our colleagues explain how Gov. Ron DeSantis scrambles Florida’s redistricting debate.
Greenberg: Democrats must speak to working-class discontent
“I am a pollster and political strategist with long experience advising Democratic candidates. Now, more than ever, Democratic victories are necessary to prevent Republicans from locking up the system. My plan is to focus on working-class voters—white, Black, Hispanic, Asian—and figure out every legal and ethical way possible for Democratic candidates to regain even a few extra points of support from them.”
- “The voters who have defected to Republicans are still open to voting for Democrats. They resent big corporations writing the rules at work and in politics. But when they hear Democrats are offering bold economic and political changes, they are surprised.”
Enes Kanter Freedom talks Olympics, China and more: ‘This is bigger than NBA and basketball’
“First off, people need to understand, the IOC, International Olympic Committee, is scared to talk about human rights because they know China is one of the worst in this regard. They will rather take China’s might than talk about values. The reality is, the people need to understand, the IOC is in bed … with the Chinese government. They do not care about human rights. They care about publicity and money,” Kanter said.
“I mean, they just organized [the Olympic] games in a country where there is press brutality, torture, mass arrest, execution, labor camps, religious suppression, and pretty much genocide. Pretty much genocide. So I feel like we should definitely call out this IOC because they are part of the problem, and they’re helping Chinese government to spread their propaganda.”
Biden does not have any public events scheduled for this afternoon.
“For the first time ever, the Super Bowl featured a halftime show centered on rap and hip-hop — and as NBC sportscaster Maria Taylor announced just before it kicked off, ‘It will likely be the greatest halftime performance of all time,’” Emily Yahr reports.
So, did it live up to the hype? Emily answers some of your burning questions (Including but not limited to: ‘Why was 50 Cent upside down?’) and rehashes some of the highlights.
Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.
