LONDON (Reuters) – The world may be less dependent on oil now than it was during the energy shocks of the 1970s, but the Ukraine conflict is stark evidence of a stubborn craving that can still disrupt economies, confound policymakers and spark political strife.
When the Yom Kippur War of 1973 triggered an Arab State oil embargo that convulsed world markets and sent inflation into double-digits, oil made up nearly half the global energy mix – a figure that has since dropped to around one third.
The shift came as rich countries focused more on services, factories became more efficient and electricity generation switched away from using oil to coal and natural gas instead.
A Columbia University study last year found that the same economic growth which half a century ago required one barrel of oil could now be had with less than half a barrel.
Some analysts had in recent years even speculated that the world economy could take future oil shocks in its stride. Others pointed to the COVID-19 lockdowns of the past two years as evidence that the economy could – in an albeit different form – function with dramatically lower oil consumption.
But the roaring back of oil demand in 2021 and the spike in oil prices triggered by the Ukraine conflict has highlighted again the size of the effort that will be needed to wean the global economy from an oil habit ingrained over decades.
Shifting oil demand is difficult in the short term as it requires trillions of dollars to replace legacy infrastructure such as vehicles and equipment, said Alan Gelder, VP refining, chemicals, and oil markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
“Investment is needed to reduce the linkage of economic activity and oil demand,” he said.
The latest rally in oil prices – up 50% since the start of the year – has buried the hopes nurtured last year by the world’s central banks that the inflation stoked by pandemic-era stimulus packages would be “transitory”.
Instead it has made it only too clear just how deeply oil permeates the internal mechanics of the global economy.
PETROL PUMP ANGER
Americans are driving less and airlines are charging higher fares. From the petrochemicals used in plastics or crop fertilizers to the fuel burned simply to ship goods around the world, crude oil derivatives are a big part of the higher prices that consumers are now paying for all kinds of essential goods.
Graphic: Oil and inflation expectations: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/byvrjbrjrve/Pasted%20image%201648127138669.png
In the United States, the Fed estimates that every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices cuts GDP growth by 0.1 percentage point and increases inflation by 0.2 percentage point. In the euro zone, as a rule of thumb, every 10% rise in the oil price in euro terms increases euro zone inflation by 0.1 to 0.2 points, according to European Central Bank research.
Inevitably, that most visible impact is at the petrol pump.
Europe’s oil-importing nations are racing to offer motorists fuel rebates and other concessions, mindful of how their anger can spill over into wider protest – as it did with the “yellow vest” movement in France back in 2018.
Asia, as the region with not only the world’s largest demand for oil but also the fastest growth in demand, is also badly hit. Japan and South Korea are among those who are raising fuel subsidies to offset higher prices.
The world’s biggest oil producer, the United States, should be better shielded than others. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted on Monday that the country is clearly better able to withstand an oil shock now than in the 1970s.
But that did not stop him from delivering his strongest message to date on his battle with too-high inflation, suggesting the central bank could move “more aggressively” to keep an upward price spiral from getting entrenched.
EXPENSIVE HABIT TO KICK
If it took five decades for oil’s share in the global energy mix to fall from 45% to 31%, it remains an open question how quickly the world – now with its avowed goal of net-zero carbon economies – can further reduce that share.
Motorists’ switch to electric vehicles is expected to cause a tipping point in global oil demand, sending it into decline. Passenger vehicles are the sector with the largest oil demand use, consuming around one-quarter of the oil used worldwide.
“Oil intensity will from now on fall much faster, as global oil demand will peak within the next few years, thereafter to decline, while GDP will continue to grow,” said Sverre Alvik, energy transition programme director at energy adviser DNV, which sees electric vehicles reaching 50% of new passenger vehicle sales in 10 years.
Yet that is only one side of the story.
The rising demand for oil in Asia, plus the fact that key sectors like shipping, aviation, freight and petrochemicals are much further behind the auto sector in switching to alternative fuels, mean large areas of oil demand remain firmly entrenched.
“Our projections suggest that dependence on oil, particularly imported oil, is unlikely to disappear quickly,” IEA analysts concluded in a 2019 note entitled “The world can’t afford to relax about oil security”.
Such outlooks suggest that, even in a best-case scenario, the world’s transition from oil and other fossil fuel sources will pose new challenges for consumers and policymakers alike.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel this month used the term “fossil-flation” for the price to be paid for what she called “the legacy cost of the dependency on fossil energy sources”.
For Schnabel, that cost stems partly from how policies like carbon pricing make fossil fuels more expensive but more so because of how energy producers can create artificially tight markets to push prices up at the expense of importers.
Add to that the embargoes imposed on Russian oil by the United States and Britain, and Europe’s goal of cutting its Russian gas imports, and she concluded: “A marked decline of fossil energy prices, as indicated by current futures prices, seems rather unlikely from this perspective.”
(Reporting by Sarah McFarlane and Mark John; Editing by Susan Fenton)
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
