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Analysts cautious on big bank earnings amid recessionary headwinds

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CANADIAN BANK BUILDINGS ON BAY STREET.

Analysts are erring on the side of caution in their earnings forecasts for the Big Six banks, as recession risks loom and a combination of factors are working against the country’s major lenders.

At least two analysts have revised their earnings expectations for the fourth quarter, pointing to volatile markets, the need to set more money aside for bad loans and and increasing funding costs among other headwinds.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce analyst Paul Holden and his team slashed adjusted earnings estimates across the sector by about 1.5 per cent on average for the fourth quarter and by 1.6 per cent for full-year in 2023.

“The biggest drivers are lower capital markets revenue, less wealth management revenue and higher operating expenses,” Holden wrote in a Nov. 18 note, adding that the two dominant themes for the quarter would be net interest margin expansions and higher credit provisioning. “Overall, our adjusted (earnings per share) estimates imply earnings will be down two per cent (year-over-year) and (quarter-over-quarter) on average.”

Expanding net interest margins, or the spread a bank earns between interest income and interest expenses, has been a leading theme for the banks this year as the Bank of Canada engaged in an aggressive rate hiking cycle that brought the policy rate from near-zero to 3.75 per cent in October. The hikes created a trade-off in that while they dampened demand for loans, they also increased the amount of interest the banks can charge as they moved their prime rates up in tandem with each central bank hike.

CIBC analysts expect expanding net interest margins to remain as the banks’ primary drivers, benefitting Toronto-Dominion bank and the Royal Bank of Canada the most since they would have the best operating leverage.

Scott Chan, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity, and his also revised adjusted earning estimates down three per cent, pointing to growing macroeconomic concerns for dragging on bank stocks this year.

“With macro concerns continued at the forefront (e.g. inflation, housing, geopolitical, recession fears), the Big Six banks have modestly underperformed the TSX Composite since (the third quarter 2022) reporting season and (year-to-date),” Chan wrote in an Nov. 21 note.

Most of Canada’s biggest banks have seen their stock performance lag this year with shares of RBC slipping just over one per cent since the beginning of the year, the Bank of Montreal’s stock falling nearly six per cent, TD down over eight per cent, CIBC off 13 per cent, and the Bank of Nova Scotia tumbling the most at 21 per cent. Shares of National Bank managed to eke out a slight gain.

National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine said recession risks were keeping Canada’s bank stocks “in check,” and that the share prices currently indicate a 55 per cent probability of a recession.

Despite the headwinds, Dechaine took a more optimistic tone in his preview note, pointing primarily to margin expansion as an upside as the banks had a seven-basis point boost in their margins in the last quarter. Dechaine was also less deterred by provisions for loan losses.

“(Third quarter 2022) marked the first quarter of performing provision additions across the Big Six since (fourth quarter 2020),” Dechaine wrote in a Nov. 17 note to clients. “The shift resulted from banks taking a more cautious outlook for credit risk, given the higher probability of an upcoming recession. However, the performing (allowance for credit loss) ratio actually declined (quarter-over-quarter), as loan growth outpaced provision ‘build.’”

Dechaine also pointed to the Bank of Canada’s more dovish pivot and expectations that the current rate hiking cycle may be nearing its end as a positive sign for the banks as slowing mortgage demand risks could moderate.

The upcoming quarter will give investors a better look under the hood on how the banks are closing out 2022 and how well-positioned they are to withstand an economic downturn.

Scotiabank will kick off earnings week on the morning of Nov. 29.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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