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Analysts warn London, Ont., real estate is poised to become an 'extreme sellers' market' in 2021 – CBC.ca

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Analysts are warning real estate in the London, Ont., region is poised to become an ‘extreme sellers’ market’ in 2021, driven by an influx of out-of-town buyers seeking more space in the coronavirus pandemic and a dwindling supply of homes for sale. 

The prediction for 2021 caps off a 2020 housing market characterized by extreme volatility due to the pandemic, which paralyzed sales in the traditionally busy spring market and held back sales over the summer, causing pent up demand to finally be released in a torrent of sales over the fall and winter months. 

In addition to the sales surge at a time when the market would normally be cooling off, the central bank lowered interest rates to a record low, signalling they would likely there until at least 2023

Add to that an influx of out-of-town buyers seeking more space and value for their money and it’s created a real estate market in the London, Ont., area that’s in no mood for low-ball offers. 

‘Extreme sellers’ market conditions’

The year 2020 saw some unusual trends in London, Ont., real estate such as the sudden popularity of pools that, until the pandemic, did not traditionally add value to a home. (Colin Butler/CBC News)

“Price growth has been extremely strong, it’s been in double digit territory, actually 20 per cent year-over-year for the last few months, so everything is pointing to the extreme sellers’ market conditions,” said Anthony Passarelli, a senior analyst with the Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation who keeps a close eye on the London market. 

In fact, the market has been so volatile Passarelli said the CMHC has had to revise its forecasting because the pandemic has thrown off the normal seasonal rhythm of the industry. 

While he doesn’t have exact numbers for where 2021 is going, he does predict prices will continue to push upward despite the lockdown. 

“The sales activity might come back down a bit because of that, but there seems to be too low supply of listings to satisfy the number of buyers out there and that will continue to push prices up.”

Supply is such an issue, Passarelli said, that even with a record number of housing starts in the London area, a large number of potential home buyers will kept from buying because demand has been so strong with people using the sale of their big city home to pay for their retirement in London. 

‘Builders can’t build fast enough’

Housing starts in the London, Ont., are up as buyers look to build given the dearth of existing homes for sale. (Colin Butler/CBC News)

“In London, the sales have grown and the listings have not,” he said. “That’s indicative of  more buyers in the area that don’t add to the listings, but only add to the sales. Obviously those buyers would be from another region. They’re listing the home where they were.”

Not only are those buyers not freeing up an existing house for someone else to buy, they’re also coming armed with a large amount of cash they can use to outbid competing buyers, something real estate agents have been seeing on the ground during the closing months of 2020.

“The last three months of the year so far have been really strong sellers’ territory with bidding wars and multiple offers being the norm and I think that’s going to continue and probably only intensify for the short period,” said Blair Campbell, president of the London St Thomas Real Estate Association. 

“Obviously that’s a frustrating situation. The supply situation is extremely low. Builders quite honestly can’t build fast enough.”

Average London home could get close to $600K in 2021

Spring and summer saw a slowdown in construction in the region, but things quickly caught up in the fall driven in part by record low interest rates from the Bank of Canada. (Colin Butler/CBC News)

Campbell said competition among buyers has been so fierce in just the last month he’s seen homes in the $600,000 range that normally sit on the market for months sell in a flash. Agents are inundated with anywhere from 30 to 60 offers. 

In many cases, he said, people will buy the house without ever visiting it in person. 

“Probably more homes sold, at least for me, virtually without the buyer actually seeing the home.”

Back in November, the Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted that the average home in Canada will likely hit an average price of $620,000 in the New Year. 

“I think certainly there’s a potential, but I don’t think it will reach that high,” he said. “At some point in time it has to start to level off, so I think $620,000 is unlikely.”

That reckoning will come, but it will take some time. Campbell said the pent up demand caused by the pandemic will take some time to work its way out of the market. 

Still, he’s worried the pace of market activity is unsustainable and that while agents are seeing record-setting sales now, it won’t last forever. 

“It’s really moving to that situation where you can’t have records because there’s nothing to sell. I don’t see a quick solution to the supply issue that we currently have.”

“It’s still going to be a challenging time for a number of years.”  

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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