Though he is no longer leader of the Conservative Party or Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, Andrew Scheer says he plans to stay on as an MP and run in the next election. If he follows through, he’ll join a short list of past party leaders who have decided to prolong their parliamentary careers after giving up one of the top political jobs in the country.
On Sunday, Scheer told reporters that he will run for his seventh consecutive term as the MP for the Saskatchewan riding of Regina–Qu’Appelle, which he has represented since 2004.
That is already a long time to have served in office. Most past leaders who have resigned their positions as prime ministers or Official Opposition leaders while still holding a seat in the House haven’t attempted re-election, putting Scheer in a small minority.
Only one-third of past prime ministers or Official Opposition leaders have run for re-election after resigning their posts. Scheer will become just the eighth to do it.
It’s a largely modern phenomenon. Alexander Mackenzie, Canada’s second prime minister, stuck around after he resigned the Liberal leadership in 1880. No party leader attempted to stay in office after losing the leadership for another 70 years after that — Progressive Conservative leader John Bracken attempted re-election after stepping down as leader in 1948.
The others in whose footsteps Scheer is following include former prime ministers John Diefenbaker and Joe Clark and former opposition leaders Preston Manning, Stockwell Day and Stéphane Dion.
Some of these people had long careers in Parliament after their resignations. Mackenzie stayed on as an MP for 12 more years — the longest post-leadership career to date, narrowly beating out Diefenbaker. (Diefenbaker, however, successfully attempted re-election four more times, beating Mackenzie’s record by one.)
Day and Dion also stayed on for many years after their resignations, though they had cabinet posts to keep them busy for part of the time.
Others had only brief stays in Parliament after their resignations. Manning remained as an MP for one more election and for less than two years after failing to secure the leadership of the Canadian Alliance. Bracken was defeated in the 1949 election, less than a year after he gave up his post as Official Opposition leader.
Length and success of pre-resignation career a factor
Not surprisingly, the success of a leader’s time in office appears to have played a role in determining whether a resigning leader tries to prolong it. Those who have served as Official Opposition leaders or prime ministers and have run again after resigning have averaged only 1.9 election campaigns as party leaders, compared to 2.9 election campaigns for those leaders who decide to go off into the sunset.
As is the case with Scheer, half of those leaders who stayed on after resigning lost their one and only elections as leaders. Leaders like Mackenzie and Clark stayed on after losing their second campaigns.
Former prime minister John Diefenbaker stayed on as an MP for 12 years after resigning as leader of the Progressive Conservatives in 1967. (Fred Chartrand / Canadian Press)
Diefenbaker — to whom Scheer has looked to for political inspiration — was an exception. He already had waged five campaigns as PC leader when he resigned in 1967 and he was ready for more. He was an unsuccessful candidate in the leadership race that was meant to find his replacement.
Leaders with better track records have tended to leave politics with winning legacies. Official Opposition leaders and prime ministers who did not seek re-election as MPs after resigning won about 53 per cent of the elections in which they were party leaders. Those who tried to prolong their parliamentary careers had an election-winning record of just 27 per cent.
Future political prospects for former leaders differ
A number of party leaders who never served in one of the top two offices in the land stayed on as MPs after resigning, including former NDP leaders Tommy Douglas and Alexa McDonough. After resigning as Green leader in November, Elizabeth May said she’ll seek re-election as an MP.
But the prospects for MPs in federal parties that have never been close to government are different from those enjoyed by MPs belonging to the parties that contend for power in every election — as the Conservatives can be expected to do whenever the next vote is held.
Scheer has said that he wants to be part of the team that replaces Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. If that happens, presumably he would like to be around the cabinet table in an Erin O’Toole-led Conservative government — a place he never reached during Stephen Harper’s tenure.
There’s no guarantee he will get that opportunity. Bracken lost his first post-leadership re-election bid and Mackenzie and Manning never got another chance to be in government. After a 16-year stint on the opposition benches, the PCs had only been back in office for a matter of weeks when Diefenbaker died in 1979.
That doesn’t mean Diefenbaker was idle in the meantime. He spent much of his time as an opposition MP sniping at Robert Stanfield, his successor as PC leader. He also proved to be a critic of Clark when he took over in 1976.
After briefly serving as prime minister, Joe Clark, left, served as secretary of state for external affairs for most of Brian Mulroney’s (centre) time in office. (Fred Chartrand / Canadian Press)
Others, though, had more success. Day served in a number of cabinet portfolios under Harper, including public safety and international trade and as president of the Treasury Board. Both Clark and Dion served as foreign affairs ministers; Clark held the office for most of the Brian Mulroney era. Dion served in the role for less than two years before taking an ambassadorial posting in Europe.
Clark, of course, also had a second act as PC leader in 1998.
So, there is certainly a chance that Scheer will have a second chance at a high-profile political job in the years to come.
He definitely has the time for one. At 41 years old, he is the youngest former leader to try to stay on as an MP. Clark, who had perhaps the most successful post-leadership career, was only two years older when he resigned as PC leader. The others averaged nearly 60 years old, with Diefenbaker topping the list at 72.
We haven’t seen the last of Andrew Scheer, politician. But how much more we’ll see of him will depend on the success and generosity of O’Toole as Conservative leader — and, if Scheer sticks around as long as his idol Diefenbaker did, on whoever replaces O’Toole as well.
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the NDP is caving to political pressure from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre when it comes to their stance on the consumer carbon price.
Trudeau says he believes Jagmeet Singh and the NDP care about the environment, but it’s “increasingly obvious” that they have “no idea” what to do about climate change.
On Thursday, Singh said the NDP is working on a plan that wouldn’t put the burden of fighting climate change on the backs of workers, but wouldn’t say if that plan would include a consumer carbon price.
Singh’s noncommittal position comes as the NDP tries to frame itself as a credible alternative to the Conservatives in the next federal election.
Poilievre responded to that by releasing a video, pointing out that the NDP has voted time and again in favour of the Liberals’ carbon price.
British Columbia Premier David Eby also changed his tune on Thursday, promising that a re-elected NDP government would scrap the long-standing carbon tax and shift the burden to “big polluters,” if the federal government dropped its requirements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Simon Jolin-Barrette, minister responsible for consumer protection, has tabled a bill to force merchants to calculate tips based on the price before tax.
That means on a restaurant bill of $100, suggested tips would be calculated based on $100, not on $114.98 after provincial and federal sales taxes are added.
The bill would also increase the rebate offered to consumers when the price of an item at the cash register is higher than the shelf price, to $15 from $10.
And it would force grocery stores offering a discounted price for several items to clearly list the unit price as well.
Businesses would also have to indicate whether taxes will be added to the price of food products.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
