WASHINGTON — Voters in the U.S. presidential election faced a public health crisis and a wounded economy, but neither candidate emerged as the clear choice to handle both of those issues, according to AP Votecast.
More voters — both nationwide and in key battlegrounds — said former Vice-President Joe Biden would be better able to handle the coronavirus pandemic, the top concern for about 4 in 10 voters. But President Donald Trump edged out Biden on the question of who would be better to rebuild an economy besieged by nearly 11 million job losses and small businesses staring down a bleak winter. About 3 in 10 voters nationally ranked the economy as the most pressing issue.
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The competing concerns dominated the race between Trump and Biden, which concluded Tuesday with the candidates locked in tight races across the battleground states. Biden warned that the economy can never fully heal unless the coronavirus is first contained and businesses can fully reopen. Trump argued that the economy should not be a casualty of the disease and maintained, without evidence, that the nation was “rounding the turn.”
Even as Tuesday night passed without a victor, clear lines were drawn in the electorate. Three-quarters of all voters said they knew all along who they supported. And Trump weighed heavily on their minds — two-thirds said their decision was driven by their opinion of the untraditional president, either for or against.
Voters grouped themselves into two coalitions with little common ground — with Republicans seeing a solid economy where Democrats saw fragility. Issues such as racism and climate change were concerns for the majority of Biden voters, but they resonated less with Trump backers.
Trump voters overwhelmingly endorsed their president. About 8 in 10 said their vote was in support of him, not in opposition to Biden, and roughly as many said Trump has changed the way things work in Washington for the better.
Trump continued to draw support from a coalition of white men, white voters without a college degree and those living in small towns and rural communities. Biden enjoyed more backing from women, college graduates, young people and Black, Hispanic and Asian voters.
A majority of Biden voters — about 6 in 10 — said the pandemic was the most important issue, more than twice the share of Trump voters.
AP VoteCast is a nationwide survey of more than 133,000 voters and nonvoters conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago.
Millions of voters rushed to cast their ballots early, and did so with a clear sense of anxiety and worry. About 6 in 10 voters — including most Biden voters and about a quarter of Trump voters — said they think things in the country are on the wrong track.
Trump’s campaign tried to make the handling of the economy a top selling point for his reelection, an uphill battle as unemployment spiked to double digits this spring. A comeback has recently showed signs of stalling as federal aid lapsed because the Trump administration and House Democrats could not reach a compromise. Only about 4 in 10 voters said the economy was good or excellent, with the rest describing conditions as not so good or poor.
The coronavirus outbreak has claimed more than 230,000 American lives and has been surging across the country in recent weeks. Still, voters were divided on whether the nation has contained the spread of the virus. About half of voters said the virus is at least somewhat under control, while roughly half described the coronavirus as out of control.
Voters in key battleground states shared anxieties about the virus and its spread. In Wisconsin, which saw an October spike in cases, close to half of voters said the pandemic was the top issue facing the country and about 6 in 10 said it was not under control. About two-thirds said the government should prioritize stopping its spread even if it means economic pain.
About half of Wisconsin voters said that Biden would do a superior job combating the virus, roughly the same as in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump had an edge in stewarding the economy, with roughly half of voters in these states saying he would do better than Biden.
More than 100 million Americans rushed to vote early and by mail, taking advantage of new rules intended to make voting safer and easier during the pandemic. Trump has sought to sow doubt about the new voting systems and the legitimacy of the count, and claimed without evidence that some voters would cheat. The survey found about 3 in 10 expressing doubts that their votes would be accurately counted.
Concerns about voting were somewhat higher in Pennsylvania, another key state in the election, compared with other states: 36% were not confident the vote count would be accurate.
Tensions over structural racism increased this summer after the police killings of several Black Americans, which set off peaceful protests and in some cases riots, looting and violence. Trump positioned himself as a defender of police and cast the protesters as radicals — part of an appeal to suburban and older voters who he thought would embrace a law and order message.
Nationally, about three-quarters of voters called racism a serious challenge for society as a whole and close to as many said that of policing in particular. About a quarter said they want to see the police be tougher on crime; about a third think police are too tough. But Trump’s pitch to suburbanites appeared to have limited impact. When asked which candidate would be better able to handle policing and justice issues, suburban voters preferred Biden to Trump by a narrow margin.
Notably, majorities of voters in two battleground states — Wisconsin and Minnesota — disapproved of protests over policing. Both states saw violence and destruction during demonstrations after police shootings of Black men.
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AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of 110,484 voters was conducted for eight days, concluding as polls closed. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability basedAmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated to be plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.
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For AP’s complete coverage of the U.S. presidential elections: https://apnews.com/hub/election-2020
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
