Apple Stock, and 5 More That Benefit as China’s Economy Surges - Barron's | Canada News Media
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Apple Stock, and 5 More That Benefit as China’s Economy Surges – Barron's

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A shopping area in Beijing during the October Golden Week holiday.


Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

China’s economic rebound hasn’t relented. Several U.S. stocks stand out as notable beneficiaries.

While most countries’ economies will shrink as a result of the coronavirus crisis, China’s gross domestic product is expected to grow 1.9% for 2020. The country reopened quickly after its lockdowns and got its economy back on track faster than most.

That is great news for companies that sell to China. Data from the investment bank Evercore underscores the point.

The firm runs a weekly survey of 21 U.S. companies—one-third manufacturers of capital goods and chemicals and the rest in consumer products—that export to China, or sell within the country. A “sales to China” index it generates from the data fell to less then 35 in March, but has trended higher since then.

The result on Friday was 56.3, the highest since June 2011.

Evercore doesn’t disclose which companies it surveys, but a strengthening Chinese economy is a powerful benefit for companies with considerable sales there.

Apple is one such company. The stock (ticker: AAPL) is up 127% between March 23, its bear-market low, and Friday. That smokes the 65% the

S&P 500

has gained in that time.

Apple’s long-term earnings growth depends on its fast-growing and higher-margin services business, but rebounding Phone sales offer a near-term benefit as well. The stock recently jumped in response to news that Apple now plans to produce 96 million iPhones in 2021, for a 30% year-over-year increase.

The Wall Street consensus calls for Apple to sell 215 million iPhones in 2021, for revenue of $165 billion. The revenue figure would amount to an increase of 20% year over year, but Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives tells Barron’s that sales estimates are now bound to rise. Much of the apparent strength in demand is coming from China, he said.

“China is tracking above expectations” for the current quarter, Ives said. Apple gets roughly 7% of its revenue from China, according to FactSet estimates, but 20% of iPhone demand is China-based, Ives estimated.

Sales in China account for 16% of

Nike

‘s (NKE) revenue. Expectations that sales there will increase 17% in the fiscal year ending in May have helped the stock to almost double the percentage gain on the S&P 500 since March 23. The stock has also benefited, of course, as higher-margin direct-to consumer sales account for a bigger portion of revenue.


Starbucks

(SBUX). meanwhile, gets more than 10% of revenue from China. Its stock is up 83% since March 23.

The casino operator

Wynn Resorts

(WYNN) receives 70% of its revenue from Macau, the former Portuguese colony and gambling hub, which depends on visitors from the mainland China. The stock is up 167% from its March 18 bear-market low.


Chemours

(CC) sees more than 11% of revenue from China, while

Caterpillar

brings in 5%. Chemours is up 278% from its April 3 low, while Caterpillar has risen 96% since March 23.

“Investors see stable-to-slightly better growth in China next year as they have fewer headwinds from COVID currently and are a beneficiary of global growth and stimulus,” wrote Oscar Sloterbeck, macro research analyst at Evercore, in a research note.

Write to Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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