BUENOS AIRES/NEW YORK (Reuters) – Argentina’s Peronist government has had a wild ride in its first year of government: a sovereign default, mammoth debt restructurings, sliding reserves, a currency crisis and a weak economy battered by COVID-19.
There have been wins and losses since taking office in December last year. Debt deals were struck that allowed the government to revamp some $110 billion in foreign currency bonds and push repayments well into the future. Crunch talks with the International Monetary Fund remain positive.
On the flip-side, weakness in the peso has drained foreign reserves, while the central bank was forced into printing money to bolster the pandemic-hit economy. Exports have been sluggish amid devaluation fears.
Shamaila Khan, New York based head of EM debt strategies at AllianceBernstein said Argentina had a “credibility issue,” but has taken step to get itself back into the global economy despite its ninth sovereign default in May.
“The fact is, the country has really taken care of their debt repayment issues and it’s in a good position to benefit from what we think will be a much better global environment for EM in general and for commodities, starting next year,” she said.
Some investors warn that issues reviving growth could lead to another default before long. The country’s risk index dropped sharply after restructuring, but borrowing costs remains sky-high. Argentine bond prices also remain in default territory.
“The restructuring was a necessary condition to resolve Argentina’s macro-economic problems,” Guzman told Reuters in an interview last week. “Economic recovery is a necessary condition for stability.”
Guzman forecasts an exit from recession in the first half of next year, but the economic recovery has been far from simple, hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. The economy is expected to contract some 11-12% this year and poverty has climbed.
(Graphic: Argentina’s economic drop – https://graphics.reuters.com/ARGENTINA-GDP/xklvyjzampg/chart.png)
The pandemic has helped bring down inflation, though it remains at nearly 40% on an annual basis and is expected to make a comeback as consumption recovers and as savings are released into the real economy.
Camilo Tiscornia at consultancy C&T Asesores Económica said monetary issuance to mitigate the impact of the virus, wage hikes and fewer prize freezes would revive inflation.
“It is very difficult to think that next year’s inflation will end lower than this year,” he said.
The peso has been at the heart of the country’s turbulent ride. It crashed sharply mid-last year, causing a rush to the safe haven of dollars. The government imposed tough currency controls, which have been tightened this year.
With tightly limited access to dollars, people flocked to alternative and black markets, willing to pay a steep premium to access greenbacks – driving a wide gap with the official rate.
The central bank, which had shelled out funds to prop up the peso and to fund government spending, moved in recent months to ease fears about its dwindling reserves, which some banks and analysts estimate is around zero in net terms.
(Graphic: Argentina’s dollar drain – https://graphics.reuters.com/ARGENTINA-CURRENCY/RESERVES/jznvnnnekvl/chart.png)
Argentina is now in crunch talks with the IMF for a deal to restore confidence in its markets. The two are trying to craft a better relationship and write-over an acrimonious history.
“We do think post an IMF program there will be more of a policy anchor, which Argentina very much needs, and that will help bridge that credibility deficit that exists today,” said Khan.
(Graphic: IMF credit outstanding in billion USD – https://graphics.reuters.com/ARGENTINA-DEBT/IMF/qmyvmalzjvr/chart.png)
(Reporting by Eliana Raszewski; Editing by Nicolas Misculin, Adam Jourdan and Nick Zieminski)
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
