As China’s economy, population implode, Xi is looking to start a war | Canada News Media
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As China’s economy, population implode, Xi is looking to start a war

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China’s severe workforce woes have caught the attention of President Joe Biden.

Last Thursday at a Democratic Party fundraiser in Utah, he said the country had the “highest unemployment rate going.”

Biden could not have been referring to the official urban unemployment rate, which was listed as 5.2 percent in June. He had to be thinking of the figure for the out-of-work young people. Beijing reported that in June, 21.3 percent of China’s urban youth — those in the 16-24 age cohort — were unemployed.

Yet that shockingly high figure is deceptively low. For March, Beijing reported youth unemployment of 19.7 percent. It might have been 46.5 percent, however. Zhang Dandan of the prestigious Peking University wrote that perhaps as many as 16 million in the youth cohort had given up looking for a job that month. Add them into the pool, and the unemployment rate of course soars.

So what happens when almost half of a country’s young are without work?

For one thing, many of China’s unemployed young are refusing to have children themselves. “Sorry, we are the last generation, thanks!” was a popular Chinese hashtag in May of last year before authorities censored it.

Moreover, tens of thousands of young people now identify themselves on social media sites as “full-time children,” those returning to live with parents as they did in secondary school “because they simply can’t get work.”

Unemployment is driving others to turn their backs on society in different ways. The University of Pennsylvania’s Victor Mair put it this way in his Language Log: “‘Lying flat,’ ‘Buddha whatever,’ ‘Kong Yijiism,’ ‘involution’ — China today has so many memes for opting out.”

Other young people are opting out of China altogether by leaving their country permanently. There has been an unprecedented surge in Chinese migrants entering the U.S. over its southern border, many of them apparently in the under-25 age group. Customs and Border Protection reports that the number of apprehensions of migrants from China in the first five months of the current federal fiscal year was more than 1,000 percent larger than the number during the comparable period in the preceding fiscal year.

And there is always the possibility of radical political change. The Chinese people, young and old, are generally unhappy. There was a series of extraordinary protests late last year, including those across the country in major cities, in November.

People in November were enraged by a fire that claimed 10 lives in an apartment block in Urumqi, in the northwestern part of the country, because COVID-control measures had prevented firefighters from reaching the scene of the tragedy in time. Nationwide demonstrations occurred without coordination, leadershipor organization.

“This is people past their breaking point,” tweeted CNN’s Selina Wang.

In Shanghai, young people chanted “Down with Xi Jinping!” and “Down with the Communist Party!”

In Beijing, the Telegraph’s Simina Mistreanu reported that a crowd numbering at least 100 began marching toward Tiananmen Square.

“The fact that they intended to protest at Tiananmen,” she wrote, “is wild.” As Mistreanu reported, the demonstrators in the Chinese capital were shouting: “We want freedom, equality, democracy, rule of law,” and “We don’t want dictatorship.”

China throughout the Communist period has seen demonstrations, but most of them were, as Charles Burton at the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute told me last year, “highly localized” and “directed at malfeasance, corruption, and incompetence of lower level Communist functionaries.” Now, however, the anger is directed at the party itself.

“China is in trouble,” Biden correctly pointed out last Thursday, calling the country “a ticking time bomb.”

“They have got some problems,” the president said. “That’s not good because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.”

Biden by “bad folks” was undoubtedly referring to Xi Jinping, who is now in war mode. For one thing, he cannot stop talking about war. His regime is fast making preparations for waging one, implementing the largest military buildup since the Second World War. He is also trying to sanction-proof the Chinese regime, stockpiling grain and other commodities, surveying America, mobilizing China’s civilians for battle, and purging China’s military of high-ranking officers.

The regime is also conducting “campaigns to instill loyalty to the Communist Party,” according to the New York Times.

And at the same time, as Richard Fisher of the International Assessment and Strategy Center told me last week, “the Chinese Communist Party has devoted enormous resources for cultivating ‘worship’ of the military among the young.”

Throughout Chinese history, young, unemployed Chinese males have brought down dynasties, such as the Yuan and the Ming. The last dynasty, the Qing, was rocked by such young men during the Boxer Rebellion.

Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer, in their much-discussed work “Bare Branches: Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population,” suggest a link between large numbers of unmarriageable males — the so-called “bare branches”— and the adoption of risk-taking foreign policies. Xi prides himself on being a student of his country’s past.

He also knows he is now being blamed for domestic difficulties. His policies are deepening the country’s economic and other problems, and he is probably thinking his best option is to rally people with a war, fought by the legions of the unemployed.

Gordon G. Chang is the author of “The Coming Collapse of China.” Follow him on Twitter @GordonGChang

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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