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As inflation ticks ever higher, Macklem won't rule out super-sized rate hike – CBC News

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With inflation showing no signs of abating despite hitting its highest level in more than 30 years, the head of the Bank of Canada opened the door to bigger and faster rate hikes to try to rein in the runaway increase in the cost of living.

Speaking from Washington, D.C., on Thursday, where he was attending meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group as well as meetings of G7 and G20 central bank governors and finance ministers, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem didn’t rule out increasing the central bank’s benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points or more at its next policy meeting in June.

Like most central banks around the world, the Bank of Canada slashed its interest rate when the pandemic started in March 2020 in an attempt to assuage fears and make sure borrowing was as affordable as possible to encourage investment. Typically, central banks lower their interest rate to encourage borrowing and investing to stimulate a sluggish economy, and they raise rates to cool things down amid high inflation.

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Two years after slashing borrowing costs to as low as they’ve ever been, those record-low rates have been accused of contributing to inflation, which has risen to its highest level in decades. In March, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by a tiny amount, 25 basis points or a quarter of a per cent, to signal the era of cheap lending was coming to an end.

Central banks prefer to move cautiously in any direction, moving rates in 0.25-percentage-point increments when possible, so it was noteworthy when the bank followed that small hike with a larger one, of 50 basis points this month. That moved the bank’s rate to one per cent, still well below where the rate was before the pandemic, but it was the first time in more than 20 years that the bank hiked by that much in one fell swoop.

With Canada’s inflation rate at an eye-watering 6.7 per cent, investors in financial instruments known as swaps suggest another big hike of half a percentage point at the bank’s next meeting in June is all but certain. And there’s even a decent chance of an even bigger one of 75 basis points or more.

“It could certainly happen,” Bank of Montreal economist Doug Porter told CBC News in an interview Friday. He noted that the next planned rate decision in early June is more than a month away, and the bank will have a slew of important data points between now and then, including another inflation number for April.

“Why not consider … very unusual possibilities? Because we are in a fairly exceptional circumstance here,” Porter said.

WATCH | Canada’s inflation jumps to 31-year high:

Canada’s inflation rate spikes to 6.7% in biggest jump since 1991

2 days ago

Duration 2:00

The inflation rate in Canada jumped to 6.7 per cent in March, hitting a 31-year high. Economists warn borrowers should expect further interest rate hikes as the Bank of Canada tries to cool rising inflation. 2:00

Macklem did little to douse those speculative flames in his comments. Although CBC was not able to attend his virtual remarks and there was no transcript, Scotiabank economist Derek Holt quoted Macklem as saying he was “not going to rule anything out” in terms of the size of any rate hike. “We’re prepared to be as forceful as needed and I’m really going to let those words speak for themselves,” Macklem reportedly said.

Macklem also said ongoing supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine and spike in COVID-19 cases in China will likely make high inflation linger for longer than anticipated. Earlier this month, the bank said it doesn’t expect inflation to get back into the range of between one and three per cent that it targets until the latter half of next year.

“He also reiterated how a pause would only be entertained once the policy rate was in the neutral rate range,” Holt said, referring to the level where interest rates reach a Goldilocks level where they are neither stimulating the economy, nor holding it back. Most economists think that so called “neutral range” is a bank rate of somewhere between two and three per cent, well above its current level.

“There remains somewhat of an inconsistency between saying they are not on autopilot while also saying they won’t pause until they get into a neutral range,” Holt said.

Canada isn’t the only country mulling faster and bigger rate hikes. Earlier Thursday, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that a 50 basis point interest rate hike is possible in May, after one Fed member had suggested a 75 basis point jump can’t be ruled out as inflation there is now up to 8.5 per cent, it’s highest level since 1982.

It wouldn’t be the first time the U.S. Federal Reserve has moved by 75 points in living memory, since they did so more than once starting in 1995. 

“It’s not out of the realm of memory for some of us,”  Porter said. “So I wouldn’t say it’s that extremely unusual if they chose to go by three quarters of a percentage point.”

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Calgary breaks all-time record in housing starts but increasing demand keeps inventory low – CBC.ca

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Soaring housing demands in Calgary led to an all-time record for new residential builds last year, but inventory levels of completed and unsold units remained low due to demand outpacing supply.

According to the latest report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), total housing starts increased by 13 per cent in Calgary, reaching a total of 19,579 units with growth across all dwelling types in the city.

That compares to a decline of 0.5 per cent overall for housing starts in the six major Canadian cities surveyed by CMHC.

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Calgary also had the highest housing starts by population.

“Part of the reason why we think that might have happened is that developers are responding to low vacancies in the rental market,” said Adebola Omosola, a housing economics specialist with CMHC.

“The population of Calgary is still growing, a record number of people moved here last year, and we still expect that to remain at least in the short term.”

Earlier this year, the Calgary Real Estate Board also predicted that demand, especially for rental apartments, wouldn’t let up any time soon. 

Industry can cope with demand, expert says

According to numbers from the report, average construction times were higher in 2023 for all dwelling types except for apartments.

The agency’s report suggests the increase in the number of under-construction residential projects might mean builders are operating at or near full capacity.

However, there’s optimism the construction industry can match the increasing need.

Brian Hahn, CEO of BILD Calgary Region, said despite concerns around about construction costs, project timelines and labour shortages, the industry has kept up with the demand for new builds.

Demand is expected to remain robust, but the construction industry can keep up, according to BILD Calgary region CEO Brian Hahn.
Demand is expected to remain robust, but the construction industry can keep up, according to BILD Calgary Region chief executive officer Brian Hahn. (Shaun Best/Reuters)

“I’ve heard that kind of conversation at the end of 2022 and I heard it in 2023,” Hahn said.

“Yet here we are early in 2024, and January and February were record numbers again.”

Hahn added he believes the current pace of construction will continue for at least the next six months and that the industry is looking at initiatives to attract more people to the trades.

Increase in row house and apartment construction

Construction growth was largely driven by new apartment projects, making up almost half of the housing starts in Calgary in 2023.

The federal housing agency says 9,034 apartment units were started that year, an increase of 17 per cent from the previous year. Of those, about 54 per cent were purpose-built rentals.

Apartments made up around two-thirds of all units under construction, CMHC said, with the total number of units under construction reaching 23,473.

Growth, however, was seen across all dwelling types. Row homes increased by 34 per cent from the previous year while groundbreaking on single-detached homes grew by two per cent.

“Notwithstanding challenges, our members and the industry counterparts that support them managed to produce a record amount of starts and completions,” Hahn said.

“I have little doubt that the industry will do their very best to keep pace at those levels.”

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Ottawa real estate: House starts down, apartments up in 2023 – CTV News Ottawa

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Rental housing dominated construction in Ottawa last year, according to a new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

Residential construction declined significantly in 2023, with housing starts dropping to 9,245 units, a 19.5 per cent decline from the record high observed in 2022. But while single-detached and row housing starts fell compared to 2022, new construction for rental units and condominiums rose.

“There’s been a shift toward rental construction over the past two years. Rental housing starts made up nearly one third of total starts in 2023, close to double the average of the previous five years,” the report stated.

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Apartment starts reached their highest level since the 1970s.

“The trend toward rental and condominium apartment construction follows increased demand in these market segments due to population growth, households looking for affordable options, and some seniors downsizing to smaller units,” the CMHC said.

Demand from international migration and students, the high cost of home ownership, and people moving to Ottawa from other parts of Ontario were the main drivers for rental housing starts in 2023. The CMHC says rental and condominium apartment starts made up 63 per cent of total starts in 2023, compared to the average of 37 per cent for the period 2018-2022.

There was a modest increase in rental housing starts in 2023 over the record-high seen the year prior and a jump in new condominiums. The report shows 5,846 new apartments were built in Ottawa last year, up 2.1 per cent compared to 2022.

Housing starts in Ottawa by year. (CMHC)

Big demand for condos

The CMHC said condo starts reached a new high in 2023, increasing 3 per cent from 2022 numbers.

“As of the end of 2023, there were only 13 completed and unsold condominium units, highlighting continued demand for new units,” the CMHC said.

Condominum starts increased in areas such as Chinatown, Hintonburg, Vanier and Alta Vista, as well as some suburban areas like Kanata, Stittsville, and western Orléans. Condo apartment construction declined in denser parts of the city like downtown, Lowertown and Centretown, the report says.

Taller buildings are also becoming more common, as the cranes dotting the skyline can attest. The CMHC notes that buildings with more than 20 storeys accounted for nearly 10 per cent of apartment structure starts in 2022 and 2023, compared to an average of 2 per cent over the 2017-2021 period. The number of units per building also rose 7 per cent compared to 2022.

Apartment building heights in Ottawa by year. (CMHC)

Single-detached home construction down significantly

The number of new single-detached homes built in Ottawa last year was the lowest level seen in the city since the mid 1990s, CMHC said.

“The Ottawa area experienced a slowdown in residential construction in 2023, driven by a significant decline in single-detached and row housing starts,” the CMHC said.

Single-detached housing starts were down 45 per cent compared to 2022. Row house starts dropped by 38 per cent compared to 2022, marking a third year of declines in a row.

“Demand for single-detached and row houses also declined in 2023. Higher mortgage rates and home prices have led to a shift in demand toward more affordable rental and condominium units,” the report said.

There were 1,535 single-detached housing starts in Ottawa last year, 208 new semi-detached homes and 1,678 new row houses.

The majority of single-detached and row housing starts were built in suburban communities such as Barrhaven, Stittsville, Kanata, Orléans and rural parts of the city.

“Increased construction costs resulting from higher financing rates and inflation that occurred in 2022 and 2023 contributed to the decline in construction in the region,” the CMHC said. 

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Trump’s media company ticker leads to fleeting windfall for some investors

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A man looks at a screen that displays trading information about shares of Truth Social and Trump Media & Technology Group, outside the Nasdaq Market site in New York City, U.S., March 26.Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Possible confusion over the new stock symbol for former President Donald Trump’s Truth Social (DJT-Q) saw some investor brokerage balances briefly jump by hundreds of thousands of dollars on Tuesday, the first day Trump’s “DJT” ticker traded.

Several people complained on social media about briefly seeing the value of their DJT stock holdings on Charles Schwab platforms inflated to figures more in line with what they would be worth if the shares traded at the level of the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

Some users said they faced a similar issue in pre-market hours on Morgan Stanley’s E*Trade trading platform.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group opened Tuesday at $70.90, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average started the session at 15,937.73 points.

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For one trader, the Schwab brokerage balance jumped by more than $1 million due to the error, according to a screen grab shared on social media platform X. Reuters was unable to contact the trader or independently verify the brokerage balance.

“It sure was nice seeing millions in the account, even if it wasn’t real,” another person, going by the username @DanielBenjamin8, who faced the issue in his E*Trade account, posted on X.

Two X users and one on Reddit surmised that the inflated balances were due to the ticker symbol for the company being nearly identical to the index.

A spokeswoman for Charles Schwab said that certain users on some of Schwab’s trading platforms saw their brokerage balances briefly inflated due to a technical issue.

The issue has been resolved and investors are able to trade equities and options on Schwab platforms, she said. Schwab declined to describe the exact cause of the issue.

E*Trade did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside of regular business hours.

Trump Media & Technology Group and S&P Dow Jones Indices, which maintains the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index, did not immediately comment on the issue.

While social media users said the issue appeared to have been resolved, many rued not being able to cash out their supposed gains from the error.

“I better go tell my boss that I’m actually not retiring,” the trader whose account balance had briefly jump by more than $1 million, wrote on X.

Trump Media & Technology Group shares surged more than 36% on Tuesday in their debut on the Nasdaq that comes more than two years since its merger with a blank-check firm was announced.

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