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As pandemic relief winds down, Canadian banks brace for a new reality – Yahoo Canada Finance

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FILE PHOTO: A Royal Bank of Canada logo is seen on Bay Street in the heart of the financial district in Toronto

By Nichola Saminather

TORONTO (Reuters) – Canadian banks are warning of a rise in credit impairments over the next year as the unwinding of government aid and loan deferral programs in coming months exposes lenders to the real damage to customers from the coronavirus crisis.

Bank executives say they are preparing for a long and choppy recovery from the pandemic, which has pushed the Canadian economy into a recession.

Customer relief measures have so far kept a lid on bad loans, and five of the top six banks reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits this week, helped by strong capital markets and trading activities.

“The real test of the recovery will come once government support programs start to wind down,” Dave McKay, chief executive officer of Royal Bank of Canada <RY.TO>, the nation’s biggest lender, told an analyst call.

“It may take one or two years for us to get back to where we were before.”

Banks have already ended mortgage deferrals for some customers and most banks reported declines in loan balances subject to deferral. So far, most customers who exited had resumed repayments, executives said on analyst calls, in large part assisted by extraordinary government aid.

The top six banks reported Canadian mortgage deferrals of 13.5% in the three months through July, from a peak of 16% at the end of the previous quarter.

Bank of Montreal’s <BMO.TO> Chief Risk Officer Patrick Cronin said on an analyst call he expects delinquencies of between 1% and 5% of total loans as deferrals end.

CAPITAL BUFFER

The six biggest banks have set aside C$17 billion over the past two quarters for expected loan losses, and most said they expect these to be sufficient to cover an anticipated increase in impairments, barring a worsening of economic conditions.

Banks expect most of the deferrals to end in October or November and Canada will replace its pandemic-related unemployment benefit program with an expanded employment insurance plan that requires people to be seeking jobs to qualify.

Even though banks’ reserves are far in excess of charge-offs and impairments seen so far, loan loss provisions are set to remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels in future quarters, Edward Jones analyst James Shanahan said.

“Our 2021 estimates (for earnings) are probably still, on average, 15% lower than what the banks reported for 2019.”

While this will be driven in large part by provisions, it is also due to slower loan growth and lower margins, he said.

Toronto-Dominion Bank <TD.TO> and RBC said they have also given increased weighting to their pessimistic macro-economic scenarios, which envision elevated unemployment and lower home prices for longer, which is reflected in their reserves.

“In Canada, unemployment numbers are higher, GDP lower… that’s what’s driving our allowance (for losses) up,” TD Chief Risk Officer Ajai Bambawale told analysts on Thursday.

($1 = 1.3126 Canadian dollars)

(Reporting By Nichola Saminather; editing by Richard Pullin)

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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