Economy

As U.S. economic recovery leads the world, Trump seeks credit

Published

9 months ago

January 31, 2024

For those rooting for the U.S. economy, there’s been plenty of good news worth celebrating lately. The combination of historically low unemployment, economic growth, shrinking inflation, rising wages, and a rising stock market have given Americans renewed optimism about the health of the resilient economy.

Just as notably, the economy in the United States isn’t just strong from a historical perspective, it’s also strong by an international perspective. The Washington Post reported over the weekend on an underappreciated detail: Our economy is outpacing our peer nations abroad, which means Americans are experiencing “the world’s best recovery.”

The European economy, hobbled by unfamiliar weakness in Germany, is barely growing. China is struggling to recapture its sizzle. And Japan continues to disappoint. But in the United States, it’s a different story. Here, despite lingering consumer angst over inflation, the surprisingly strong economy is outperforming all of its major trading partners.

The Post quoted Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist, who said, “The U.S. has really come out of this into a place of strength and is moving forward like covid never happened. We earned this; it wasn’t just a fluke.”

From a purely political perspective, this creates some serious challenges for Republicans. Part of the problem, of course, is that GOP officials were hoping to capitalize on perceptions of a weak economy in this year’s elections, and reality is clearly getting in the way.

Making matters worse, the reason the U.S. economy is outpacing recoveries elsewhere is that the federal government has invested heavily in the economy in recent years — which is necessarily at odds with Republican orthodoxy that says government spending does not fuel growth.

But for Trump, the challenges are especially acute.

As regular readers might recall, ahead of Election Day 2020, the then-president repeatedly warned the public that if Joe Biden were elected, the U.S. economy would collapse. His rhetoric wasn’t based on anything real or substantive; he just hoped to scare voters into re-electing him.

It led the Republican to declare at the final debate of the 2020 cycle, “They say the stock market will rule if I’m elected. If he’s elected, the stock market will crash.” Around the same time, Trump also told supporters that Democratic policies would “unleash an economic disaster of epic proportions” and force the country “into depression.”

Everything he said and predicted was wrong — which leaves the GOP’s presumptive nominee in a bit of a bind.

On the one hand, Trump appears desperate to convince people that the healthy U.S. economy isn’t healthy at all. On Dec. 29, he published an item to his social media account assuring the public that the national economy is “TERRIBLE,” the truth notwithstanding, adding a prediction that if President Biden is re-elected, we’ll suffer a “‘CRASH’ WORSE THAN THAT OF 1929 — A GREAT DEPRESSION!!!”

The former president soon after campaigned in New Hampshire and described a dystopia that bore no resemblance to our reality. “[B]anks are collapsing,” Trump said, pointing to events that are unfolding only in his imagination. He added, “We are a nation whose economy is collapsing into a cesspool of ruin, whose supply chain is broken, whose stores are not stocked.”

None of this was even remotely true. It was also soon contradicted by Trump’s own attempts to claim credit for good economic news. CNBC reported:

Former President Donald Trump on Monday admitted that the stock market is on the rise under his successor, President Joe Biden — but Trump still tried to take credit for it. “THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET,” Trump wrote in an all-caps Truth Social post.

So let’s take stock of what the likely Republican presidential nominee wants voters to believe. First, the economy is terrible, and people should definitely blame Biden. Second, parts of the economy are great, and people should definitely credit Trump.

And third, when people see economic data that might make them feel better about the resilient U.S. economy, they should assume that the figures are “fake,” unless Trump likes the data, in which case he’ll claim credit for the good news.

The former president, impervious to shame, is pushing each of these lines simultaneously, creating an utterly incoherent message.

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Economy

Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

Published

14 hours ago

October 21, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

Published

5 days ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

Published

5 days ago

October 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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