Asian share markets were mixed on Monday as risk assets found support from the upbeat U.S. October payrolls report, but faced another test later in the week from a reading on U.S. inflation that could spook the rate horses.
The congressional passage of a long-delayed U.S. $1 trillion infrastructure bill cheered investors, though a broader social safety net plan remains elusive.
Data out over the weekend also showed China’s exports beat forecasts in October to deliver a record trade surplus, although a miss on imports added to evidence of a slowing in domestic demand.
Moves were modest with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan off 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei lost early gains to dip 0.1%, short of a recent five-week peak.
Chinese blue chips dithered either side of flat, stuck in a range that has held for almost four months.
Nasdaq futures were off 0.4%, after 10 straight sessions of gains which left the index looking overextended. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.2%, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures eased 0.1% and FTSE futures were flat.
Friday’s robust U.S. payrolls report included upward revisions to the previous couple of months and another strong reading on wages.
Tightness in the labour market combined with dislocation in global supply chains should result in another high reading for U.S. consumer prices due on Wednesday, with any upside surprise likely to rekindle talk of an earlier Federal Reserve hike.
Analysts note an alternative measure of core trimmed mean inflation has already picked up markedly to an annual 3.6%.
“Another acceleration in the monthly annualised trimmed CPI will reinforce our view that the Fed is behind the curve,” said Kim Mundy, a senior economist & currency strategist at CBA.
“The longer the FOMC waits to tighten monetary policy, the greater the risk the FOMC tightens more to bring inflation back under control.”
No less than six Fed officials are speaking on Monday, with the most attention likely on Vice Chair Richard Clarida who is talking on Fed and ECB policy.
After some wild swings, Treasuries still managed to end last week with a rally, thanks partly to a huge drop in UK bond yields where short-dated debt enjoyed its best week since 2009 after the Bank of England skipped a chance to hike.
That led the market to push out the likely timing and pace of tightening not just there, but in Europe and the United States too. Fed Funds now have a rate rise fully priced by September 2022, instead of July, a second not until February 2023 instead of December 2022.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries dived 10 basis points on the week and were last at 1.47%.
The drop took a little steam out of the dollar, which had hit a more than one-year high after the payrolls data. The dollar index was holding at 94.331, from a top of 94.634.
Still, the BoE’s shock decision left sterling down 1.4% over last week and trading at $1.3473, while the euro touched a 16-month trough before steadying at $1.1556.
The dollar was also trying to sustain its bull run on the Japanese yen at 113.54, above support around 113.25.
The retreat in bond yields was a boon for gold, which offers no fixed return, and lifted it to $1,818 an ounce.
Oil prices firmed after OPEC+ producers rebuffed a U.S. call to accelerate output increases even as demand nears pre-pandemic levels. [O/R]
Saudi Aramco also raised its official selling price of crude to all buyers across the globe.
Brent rose another $1.01 to $83.75 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained $1.07 to $82.34.
(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Richard Pullin)
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
