Asia to `come roaring back' in Q4 oil demand, Vitol's Muller says - S&P Global | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Business

Asia to `come roaring back' in Q4 oil demand, Vitol's Muller says – S&P Global

Published

 on


Highlights

OPEC+ 400,000 b/d monthly output boost not enough

More Iran crude seen for mid-year 2022

IAEA director general in Tehran on Sept. 12

Asia, led by China, will account for most of the incremental oil demand in the fourth quarter after a faster drawdown of global inventories in August that was partly due to the OPEC+ alliance not providing adequate supplies, the head of Vitol Asia said Sept. 12.

Not registered?

Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.


Register Now

“There is an expectation in the market that Asia is going to come roaring back,” Mike Muller told the Gulf Intelligence webinar. “There is no question if you are looking at fundamentals at this time of the year, it is Asia that will be responsible for the most of incremental oil demand over the next three months of trading.”

OPEC+’s decision to ease production cuts by 400,000 b/d per month between August and December is not enough to cater to global oil demand because inventory drawdowns are faster, according to Muller. “China is growing and will keep consuming more oil that’s a given,” he said.

The August drawdown of 2 million b/d was five times more than OPEC’s 400,000 b/d tapering of cuts. And OPEC+ wasn’t able to fully take advantage of the loosened quotas as crude production only climbed 50,000 b/d in August, according to the latest S&P Global Platts estimates. OPEC’s 13 members pumped 26.97 million b/d in the month, a rise of 140,000 b/d from July, while nine non-OPEC partners led by Russia added 13.29 million b/d, a drop of 90,000 b/d.

Continued drawdown

“The OPEC+ policy of putting 400,000 b/d in market is commonly believed to be not enough to satisfy demand growth at this time of the year and therefore it is going to allow a continued drawing of inventories,” Muller said.

Seeing hearty global oil demand ahead, OPEC and its allies agreed Sept. 1 to hike their collective crude production by 400,000 b/d in October, sticking to their plans to keep easing back their historic output cuts.

With crude prices above $70/b, economic growth firm and rival US production growth still relatively subdued, OPEC+ ministers saw no reason to change course.

The 23-country OPEC+ group, which collectively controls about half of the world’s oil production capacity, has been gradually tapering the record 9.7 million b/d output cuts as demand recovers from the crash caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

During their discussions, ministers reviewed an internal forecast that indicated global oil demand would far exceed supply through the rest of the year, by 1 million b/d in September, 1.1 million b/d in October, 800,000 b/d in November and 400,000 b/d in December, according to a copy seen by Platts.

OPEC is scheduled to release its monthly oil market report on Sept. 13.

Iranian crude

A potential return of Iranian crude, which is likely to come in the middle of next year if a nuclear deal with the US is struck, will be “very important for balances,” Muller said.

A signal that deadlocked nuclear talks could be restarted emerged on Sept. 11 when the International Atomic Energy Agency said its director general Rafael Grossi was set to meet in Tehran on Sept. 12 with Mohammed Elslami, Iranian vice president and head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.

The nuclear talks have stalled since mid June when both sides paused for the Iran elections and were expected to start up shortly after President Ebrahim Raisi took office in early August. The talks revolve around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the 2015 agreement between Iran and China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK and the US that limited Tehran’s nuclear capabilities and its uranium enrichment levels. However, the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 under the Donald Trump administration prompted Iran to back-track on commitments.

Robert Malley, lead US negotiator, went to Paris and Moscow for talks with Russian and European diplomats over Sept. 7-10 about the “need to quickly reach and implement an understanding on a mutual return to compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” the State Department said Sept. 7.

Platts Analytics still expects the US and Iran to reach a new nuclear deal by October or November, allowing the Biden administration to remove sanctions on Tehran’s oil, shipping, petrochemical and other sectors. But Platts Analytics added a no-deal scenario to its outlook as doubts have grown about whether Washington and Tehran can break the impasse.

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

Published

 on

 

Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

Published

 on

 

CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

Published

 on

 

BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version