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Asian governments brace for economic effects of coronavirus – Aljazeera.com

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Policymakers in Japan on Friday braced for a sharp contraction in October-December growth and warned of a drop in output and consumption due to the coronavirus outbreak, as Asian economies sounded the alarm over darkening economic outlooks.

Singapore‘s economy could enter recession due to the blow from the coronavirus outbreak, its prime minister said on Friday, while neighbouring Malaysia said it would announce a stimulus package to mitigate the negative effects of the virus outbreak.

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Meanwhile, in China, at least two economists at government-linked think-tanks have in recent weeks projected a loss of up to one percentage point from China’s growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 and even for the full year.

Bank of Japan Executive Director Eiji Maeda said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) may have suffered a “big contraction” in the final quarter of last year due to sluggish overseas demand and damage to consumption from last year’s sales tax increase.

“Japan’s economy is expected to continue expanding moderately as a trend,” thanks to robust capital expenditure and government spending, Maeda told Parliament.

“But we need to be vigilant against various risks such as the impact the coronavirus outbreak could have on output and spending by inbound tourists,” he said.

Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura also told reporters the virus outbreak, as well as unusually warm weather that hurts sales of winter clothing, were “fresh factors weighing on the economy”.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect Japan’s economy to have shrunk an annualised 3.7 percent in the October-December quarter, which would be the fastest pace of decline since 2014. The GDP data is due 8:50am on Monday (23:50 GMT on Sunday).

Japan is among the countries worst affected by the epidemic outside China, with 251 confirmed cases including those on a cruise ship.

Some analysts expect Japan’s economy to suffer another contraction in the current quarter as China’s virus outbreak hurts exports, output and consumption through a sharp drop in overseas tourists.

A separate Reuters poll released on Friday showed the coronavirus epidemic is expected to shave up to 0.2 percentage points off Japan’s economic growth rate this year.

The government decided on Friday to spend 10.3 billion yen ($93.8m) from budget reserves to respond to the coronavirus.

Finance Minister Taro Aso said the government was ready to take additional steps depending on how big the effect from the outbreak could be.

BOJ’s Maeda said the central bank will support the economy by maintaining its enormous stimulus programme but stopped short of signalling additional monetary support.

Maeda’s remarks suggest the BOJ does not see the virus impact as big enough yet to alter its economic projections.

Stimulus packages

In Singapore, the government is set to roll out a hefty package of budget measures on Tuesday to cushion the economic blow from the epidemic, with some analysts expecting it to run its biggest deficit in more than a decade.

Economists at Citi and Maybank expect a virus relief package of at least 700 million Singapore dollars ($505m) after Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loon said the effects of the coronavirus would be “significant”.

“The impact will be significant at least in the next couple of quarters. It is a very intense outbreak,” Lee said in a video interview posted on his Facebook page.

“I can’t say whether we will have a recession or not. It’s possible, but definitely our economy will take a hit,” Lee said in remarks made to media at Singapore’s main Changi airport.

Lee said business at the airport had suffered with flights down by a third.

Singapore has in effect banned all visitors from China, its biggest source of tourists, while some countries have advised against travel to Singapore which has one of the highest virus infection tallies outside China at 58.

The Asian business hub had just been showing signs of recovery from its lowest growth rate in a decade last year – a paltry 0.7 percent – when the outbreak spread to the city-state in late January.

Singapore is due to release final fourth-quarter growth data on Monday, and economists are anticipating revisions to its 2020 growth forecast range of 0.5-2.5 percent.

Meanwhile, Malaysia’s Ministry of Finance said in a statement on Friday that it would announce a stimulus package in the coming week to mitigate the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak

Assistance will be given to the affected sectors, Minister of Finance Lim Guan Eng said. The government said on Tuesday that the stimulus package would be earmarked for the aviation, retailing and tourism industries.

SOURCE:
Reuters news agency

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Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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