Asia’s economic growth outlook slashed on China, Ukraine fears - Al Jazeera English | Canada News Media
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Asia’s economic growth outlook slashed on China, Ukraine fears – Al Jazeera English

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Asian Development Bank forecasts region’s developing economies to grow 4.6 percent in 2022 amid worsening conditions.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has slashed its economic forecasts for Asia, citing deteriorating conditions due to China’s “zero COVID” lockdowns, rising interest rates in developed economies and the war in Ukraine.

Asia’s developing economies, which include China and India, are expected to grow 4.6 percent in 2022 and 5.2 percent in 2023, according to the ABD’s latest economic outlook released on Thursday.

The ADB in April predicted the region’s developing bloc would expand 5.2 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively.

China’s economy is forecast to expand 4 percent, revised down from 5 percent, amid “disruption from new COVID-19 lockdowns” and “weaker global demand”.

Defying a global trend towards living with COVID-19, authorities in the world’s second-largest economy are continuing to roll out lockdowns and travel restrictions as part of a draconian “dynamic zero COVID” policy aimed at stamping the virus out.

India’s economy is predicted to grow 7.2 percent this year, down from a 7.5 percent expansion forecast in April, although growth is anticipated to rebound to 7.8 percent in 2023.

Bucking the negative trend, Pacific island nations’ growth outlook was revised upward to 4.7 percent, from 3.9 percent, amid a stronger-than-expected rebound in tourism in Fiji.

“The economic impact of the pandemic has declined across most of Asia, but we’re far from a full and sustainable recovery,” ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said.

“On top of the slowdown in the PRC, fallout from the war in Ukraine has added to inflationary pressure that’s causing central banks around the world to raise interest rates, acting as a brake on growth. It’s crucial to address all these global uncertainties, which continue to pose risks to the region’s recovery.”

While facing less severe price pressures than other parts of the world, developing Asia is also expected to experience worsening inflation over the next two years.

Inflation is forecast to hit 4.2 percent in 2022 and 3.5 percent in 2023, compared with previous forecasts of 3.7 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively.

The ADB’s sombre outlook is the latest warning shot for the global economy as China’s economic slowdown, interest rate hikes in advanced economies, and the Ukraine crisis raise fears of a global economic downturn.

The International Monetary Fund earlier this month said it would “substantially” downgrade its outlook for the global economy in its next update after already slashing its growth forecast for 2022 from 4.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent to take into account Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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