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Asteroid 2007 FT3 Will Not Hit Us, And Other Predictions For 2024. Suppose It Did Hit Us.

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In the past I have predicted certain things at the start of certain years.  This is a selection of those which I recall, along with issues I am watching out for the next year.  They include a solar eclipse that will happen, and an asteroid that is not likely to impact us.

A prediction made in 2011 was that the German Economy would suffer in part due to the lack of nuclear power.  This has happened but for reasons I did not predict. cnn.com   The war in Ukraine and the collapse of the Russian gas strategy revealed a weakness in Germany’s non-nuclear power strategy.  Even without the war the fact they were so dependent on natural gas proves the green energy strategy had failed.  Green energy without nuclear cannot work.  Not unless we are talking about an all-up program to build solar power collection in orbit using resources mined in space. Basically, the beginning of a Dyson swarm.

Don’t worry 2007 FT3 which was briefly seen in 2007, and has a small chance of impact in 2024 is very unlikely to hit us.  This being the 2020’s when everything unlikely happens, I will discuss below, WHAT IF it did.

Past Predictions Right And Wrong
An article full of predictions for the 2020’s  Let’s see how they have done so far.    I did predict that SUSY string theory would be with us for decades even if evidence for it was not found.  Instead it seems that SUSY string theory is fading.  That said I would not be shocked if someone does try to reformulate SUSY string/ M theory in a way that does comply with available data.  It is too tempting to model everything as being a “vibration” of a fundamental object of some kind.

I predicted that gravitational wave observations, and multi-messenger astronomy, will give us new clues on General Relativity.  So far this has been the case.

The TMT being finally constructed remains to be seen.  At this point if it is not constructed I think part of it will be due to the increase in light pollution due to satellites such as star link.

Dark matter has so far not been directly detected.  Quantum gravity theories other than string/M theory gaining more traction has come to pass.  As have the advance of ideas similar to those of mine, but perhaps better executed, by better known names have also gained some traction.  Namely the idea that we need to not so much quantize gravity.  I called this idea relativization, gave APS  talks and published in low impact places a set of axioms on how to do this using algebraic quantum field theory on a dynamically curved space time.    I am just happy to see advancement.

LISA making great strides to be deployed.  I don’t think I was personally involved with LISA when I predicted this.  I can say we are making steady progress to launch.

I have been WRONG so far about Boeing giving us access to space bur right about Space X.    I am no longer confident that SpaceX will put humans in lunar orbit before NASA does this again.

I am also no longer confident that we will see desktop quantum computing by 2030.  I’d love to be wrong about this.

I have been wrong that we would call this decade “the 20’s” by 2022.  At some point in the 2020’s we will stop using the 20 before the decade in daily speech.

No Impact Is Likely.

In 2024 we will not be hit by asteroid 2007 FT3.  A report first written in November and updated a couple days ago puts the chance of impact as one in 10 million for March 3 2030 and one in 11.5 million for October 5th 2024. (GBnews.com) In other words don’t quit your day job because of this.  The odds are comparable to that of winning the lottery.

NASA has responded to this simply stating that “There are no known asteroid impact threads to Earth at any time in the next century.” (standard.co.uk)  Meaning fearing asteroid impacts would be like planning retirement based on playing the lottery or fearing lighting on a random sunny day.   That said if an asteroid is ever about to impact Earth it will be visible with a telescope for some time before hand.  Research grade telescopes would find it, and appropriate actions hopefully would be taken.

If the odds of this come down, and the chance of impact is MUCH more it might even be a good thing.  Hopefully humanity would band together to deflect this relatively small asteroid.   However, you will see sensational fearmongering stories about this in the lead up to the event.  At worst it would be like preventing Y2K or taking measures against covid.  One of those things we manage to handle but in doing so some people will think the whole event was made up or at least overblown.

WHAT IF it did hit though? 

All of that said this is the 2020’s.  Every unlikely bad thing seems to happen in this decade.  If one power block of countries thinks that they can gain by allowing another one to get the full brunt of this impact, they may just not help out.  This would not be a Chicxulub size impactor.  This would cause local total devastation and a degree of impact winter, but not enough to threaten survival of global civilization.   2007 FT3 is between 0.29 and 0.59 km in diameter.  This is a very big rock but not by asteroid standards.  The impact would have 2739 MT of equivalent explosive power.   All of this is according to Spacereference.org.   A fun little website called asteroid launcher has this nice tool for visualizing such an impact. Worse still if it hit and hit the ocean it would mean a 450 meter tall tsunami in the middle of the ocean and certainly a meters to tens of meters tall tsunami around the rim of whichever ocean it hit.

Hopefully the world would come together to use our resources to prevent such a catastrophe if it were to happen.  On the other hand, there are some who if the US was hit would rejoice.  There are some who if Russia or China was hit would rejoice.  There are some who would think well … maybe it’ll help out with that global warming/ climate change.  A shockingly large number of people would think that kinda way about this.   We are unlikely to ever find out.

 

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Here’s how Helene and other storms dumped a whopping 40 trillion gallons of rain on the South

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More than 40 trillion gallons of rain drenched the Southeast United States in the last week from Hurricane Helene and a run-of-the-mill rainstorm that sloshed in ahead of it — an unheard of amount of water that has stunned experts.

That’s enough to fill the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium 51,000 times, or Lake Tahoe just once. If it was concentrated just on the state of North Carolina that much water would be 3.5 feet deep (more than 1 meter). It’s enough to fill more than 60 million Olympic-size swimming pools.

“That’s an astronomical amount of precipitation,” said Ed Clark, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. “I have not seen something in my 25 years of working at the weather service that is this geographically large of an extent and the sheer volume of water that fell from the sky.”

The flood damage from the rain is apocalyptic, meteorologists said. More than 100 people are dead, according to officials.

Private meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former NOAA chief scientist, calculated the amount of rain, using precipitation measurements made in 2.5-mile-by-2.5 mile grids as measured by satellites and ground observations. He came up with 40 trillion gallons through Sunday for the eastern United States, with 20 trillion gallons of that hitting just Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Florida from Hurricane Helene.

Clark did the calculations independently and said the 40 trillion gallon figure (151 trillion liters) is about right and, if anything, conservative. Maue said maybe 1 to 2 trillion more gallons of rain had fallen, much if it in Virginia, since his calculations.

Clark, who spends much of his work on issues of shrinking western water supplies, said to put the amount of rain in perspective, it’s more than twice the combined amount of water stored by two key Colorado River basin reservoirs: Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

Several meteorologists said this was a combination of two, maybe three storm systems. Before Helene struck, rain had fallen heavily for days because a low pressure system had “cut off” from the jet stream — which moves weather systems along west to east — and stalled over the Southeast. That funneled plenty of warm water from the Gulf of Mexico. And a storm that fell just short of named status parked along North Carolina’s Atlantic coast, dumping as much as 20 inches of rain, said North Carolina state climatologist Kathie Dello.

Then add Helene, one of the largest storms in the last couple decades and one that held plenty of rain because it was young and moved fast before it hit the Appalachians, said University of Albany hurricane expert Kristen Corbosiero.

“It was not just a perfect storm, but it was a combination of multiple storms that that led to the enormous amount of rain,” Maue said. “That collected at high elevation, we’re talking 3,000 to 6000 feet. And when you drop trillions of gallons on a mountain, that has to go down.”

The fact that these storms hit the mountains made everything worse, and not just because of runoff. The interaction between the mountains and the storm systems wrings more moisture out of the air, Clark, Maue and Corbosiero said.

North Carolina weather officials said their top measurement total was 31.33 inches in the tiny town of Busick. Mount Mitchell also got more than 2 feet of rainfall.

Before 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, “I said to our colleagues, you know, I never thought in my career that we would measure rainfall in feet,” Clark said. “And after Harvey, Florence, the more isolated events in eastern Kentucky, portions of South Dakota. We’re seeing events year in and year out where we are measuring rainfall in feet.”

Storms are getting wetter as the climate change s, said Corbosiero and Dello. A basic law of physics says the air holds nearly 4% more moisture for every degree Fahrenheit warmer (7% for every degree Celsius) and the world has warmed more than 2 degrees (1.2 degrees Celsius) since pre-industrial times.

Corbosiero said meteorologists are vigorously debating how much of Helene is due to worsening climate change and how much is random.

For Dello, the “fingerprints of climate change” were clear.

“We’ve seen tropical storm impacts in western North Carolina. But these storms are wetter and these storms are warmer. And there would have been a time when a tropical storm would have been heading toward North Carolina and would have caused some rain and some damage, but not apocalyptic destruction. ”

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Follow AP’s climate coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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‘Big Sam’: Paleontologists unearth giant skull of Pachyrhinosaurus in Alberta

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It’s a dinosaur that roamed Alberta’s badlands more than 70 million years ago, sporting a big, bumpy, bony head the size of a baby elephant.

On Wednesday, paleontologists near Grande Prairie pulled its 272-kilogram skull from the ground.

They call it “Big Sam.”

The adult Pachyrhinosaurus is the second plant-eating dinosaur to be unearthed from a dense bonebed belonging to a herd that died together on the edge of a valley that now sits 450 kilometres northwest of Edmonton.

It didn’t die alone.

“We have hundreds of juvenile bones in the bonebed, so we know that there are many babies and some adults among all of the big adults,” Emily Bamforth, a paleontologist with the nearby Philip J. Currie Dinosaur Museum, said in an interview on the way to the dig site.

She described the horned Pachyrhinosaurus as “the smaller, older cousin of the triceratops.”

“This species of dinosaur is endemic to the Grand Prairie area, so it’s found here and nowhere else in the world. They are … kind of about the size of an Indian elephant and a rhino,” she added.

The head alone, she said, is about the size of a baby elephant.

The discovery was a long time coming.

The bonebed was first discovered by a high school teacher out for a walk about 50 years ago. It took the teacher a decade to get anyone from southern Alberta to come to take a look.

“At the time, sort of in the ’70s and ’80s, paleontology in northern Alberta was virtually unknown,” said Bamforth.

When paleontogists eventually got to the site, Bamforth said, they learned “it’s actually one of the densest dinosaur bonebeds in North America.”

“It contains about 100 to 300 bones per square metre,” she said.

Paleontologists have been at the site sporadically ever since, combing through bones belonging to turtles, dinosaurs and lizards. Sixteen years ago, they discovered a large skull of an approximately 30-year-old Pachyrhinosaurus, which is now at the museum.

About a year ago, they found the second adult: Big Sam.

Bamforth said both dinosaurs are believed to have been the elders in the herd.

“Their distinguishing feature is that, instead of having a horn on their nose like a triceratops, they had this big, bony bump called a boss. And they have big, bony bumps over their eyes as well,” she said.

“It makes them look a little strange. It’s the one dinosaur that if you find it, it’s the only possible thing it can be.”

The genders of the two adults are unknown.

Bamforth said the extraction was difficult because Big Sam was intertwined in a cluster of about 300 other bones.

The skull was found upside down, “as if the animal was lying on its back,” but was well preserved, she said.

She said the excavation process involved putting plaster on the skull and wooden planks around if for stability. From there, it was lifted out — very carefully — with a crane, and was to be shipped on a trolley to the museum for study.

“I have extracted skulls in the past. This is probably the biggest one I’ve ever done though,” said Bamforth.

“It’s pretty exciting.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 25, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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The ancient jar smashed by a 4-year-old is back on display at an Israeli museum after repair

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TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.

Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.

Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.

The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.

The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.

It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.

Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.

Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.

Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.

Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.

Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.

The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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