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At midday: North American markets jump on better-than-expected jobs data – The Globe and Mail

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An unexpected jump in U.S. employment sent world equities and oil surging on hopes that the global economy has started to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, pulling investors out of perceived safe havens like government bonds and gold. Canada’s TSX gained 2.1%, with investors also cheering much better than expected jobs numbers on this side of the border.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 2.509 million jobs last month after a record plunge of 20.687 million in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the unemployment rate jumping to 19.8% in May and payrolls falling by 8 million jobs.

“The numbers are a huge surprise to the upside,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “It has confirmed what many folks were suggesting: that the effects on the labor market from the pandemic were temporary and that when the economy reopened and the infection rates started to diminish, that these jobs would come back.”

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MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 2.04%. The index is now down 4.5% for the year to date and trading at its highest level since early March, before the U.S. economy went into lockdown in an effort to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 829.16 points, or 3.15%, to 27,110.98, the S&P 500 gained 81.58 points, or 2.62%, to 3,193.93 and the Nasdaq Composite added 198.27 points, or 2.06%, to 9,814.08. The Nasdaq breached its all-time closing high reached in February but pared its gains to end the session a hair’s breadth below it. The broad S&P 500 is now down about 1% for the year to date.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 326.20 points to 15,854.07. Gold stocks were lower, but otherwise gains were widespread across sectors, with energy rallying 7.9%. Financials rose just over 3%.

Canada added 290,000 jobs in May after two months of brutal layoffs, a surprise turn for the job market as provinces have only recently begun to ease lockdown restrictions. Analysts had been expecting half a million job losses during the month. Despite the gain, the unemployment rate rose to 13.7 per cent, the highest since comparable data became available in 1976, as more people started seeking jobs.

Equity gains were widespread before the surprise jobs reports. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan rose 0.9%, reversing early losses to stay near a 12-week high.

The index is up about 7.6% this week, on track for its best weekly showing since December 2011.

Emerging market stocks were up 0.7% and also on course for their best week since December 2011.

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Hopes for a swift economic recovery sank U.S. government bonds, which had reached historic highs on fears that the pandemic would erode consumer demand. Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 20/32 in price to yield 0.8851%, from 0.82% late on Thursday.

“The sell-off in the bond market in the last few weeks seems to be justified,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “This is a tremendously positive step in the right direction, and probably points to a faster recovery, at least in the jobs market, than people had expected.”

Bond investors will get further insight into the likely direction of the economy when the U.S. Federal Reserve holds its regular two-day policy meeting next week.

Europe has now clawed back two-thirds of the losses incurred amid the coronavirus pandemic and Bank of America analysts said on Friday they expect European stocks to rise another 10% by the end of September on expectations of a pickup in business activity.

Set for a third straight week of gains, the euro rose to $1.1380, its highest level since March 10 and was on course for a weekly jump of 2.5%.

The dollar index made a tepid recovery, rising 0.08% to 96.84, but remained on track for its third consecutive week of losses and close to its lowest in nearly three months.

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Hopes for an economic recovery sent oil prices surging. U.S. crude recently rose 4.97% to $39.27 per barrel and Brent was at $42.14, up 5.38% on the day.

Read more: Stocks that saw action Friday – and why

Reuters

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$40 Could Be Magic Number for Some Oil Players – Rigzone News

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The $40 per barrel level for West Texas Intermediate crude oil could trigger an uptick in activity among some oil market players, an informed market-watcher told Rigzone. Keep reading to learn about what specific activity could be on the rise, along with other developments to watch for this week in the oil market.

Tom Seng, Director – School of Energy Economics, Policy and Commerce, University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business: Large U.S. oil producers, such as ConocoPhillips, have announced that they will begin to bring back oil production that was shut-in due to lower prices. Look for mergers and acquisitions activity to start to increase if prices can stabilize at or above the $40 level. The “bottom-feeders” who have waited to buy really “cheap” assets will have to contend with higher valuations now.

Tom Curran, Senior Energy Services and Equipment Analyst in Equity Research, B. Riley FBR, Inc.: Come 1 p.m. Eastern time on each of the next two Fridays, our attention will be fixated on the Baker Hughes rig count site. The weekly U.S. active frac spread count troughed at 45 in mid-May, pivoted into an uptrend, surging by 33 units to 78 as of June 19, 2020, and has vacillated in the 70s since, according to Primary Vision. Given our industry recovery thesis – which is that operators would first restart shut-in production and increase DUC (drilled but uncompleted) well executions, then pick up new well drilling, which should see a slower rise than completion activity – we believe a definitive floor is imminent for the weekly Baker Hughes U.S. land drilling rig count. In fact, a bottoming process may already be underway. The count’s downtrend has significantly decelerated since early June. For the last three weekly measures, Baker has reported 255, 254 and 251.

Barani Krishnan, Senior Commodities Analyst at Investing.com: Expect all eyes to be on virus stats for the coming week or two. Regardless of what the Trump administration says or wants us to think, the pandemic will decide the course of oil demand and the economy – not the other way around.

To contact the author, email mveazey@rigzone.com.

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Corbeil man wins big money through Encore – BayToday

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Saying “yes” to ENCORE paid off for James Braund of Corbeil. Jim matched the last six of seven ENCORE numbers in exact order in the April 14, 2020 LOTTO MAX draw to win $100,000.

Jim, a 67-year old father and grandfather says he plays the same numbers regularly.

“I was at the gas station where I purchased my tickets and the terminal froze when the retailer scanned my ticket,” he shared, while at the OLG Prize Centre in Toronto to pick up his cheque.

“When I realized I won $100,000, I was so excited,” he smiled.

The retired public servant plans to take a family vacation with his kids and grandkids when the time is right. “My wife spent some time shopping today while I was here at OLG collecting my prize,” he remarked.

“This was amazing. You wake up in the morning to know you have an additional $100,000 in your bank account. It’s surreal,” he concluded.

The OLG Prize Centre in Toronto has resumed in-person prize claims for winning-ticket holders of $50,000 or more by-appointment only. 

The winning ticket was purchased at MacEwan on Highway 94 in Corbeil.

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COVID-19 slams businesses and consumer sentiment: Bank of Canada – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(REUTERS)

Even as economies across Canada gradually reopen, Canadian consumers and businesses worry about the effects of COVID-19.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The Bank of Canada’s Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) was conducted between May 11 to June 1 and asked for views on inflation, the labour market, and household finances.” data-reactid=”24″>The Bank of Canada’s Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) was conducted between May 11 to June 1 and asked for views on inflation, the labour market, and household finances.

“The perceived probability of losing one’s job rose to its highest level in the CSCE, and respondents anticipated having greater difficulty finding new employment if they were to lose their current job.” said the Bank of Canada in a release.

Barring a second wave, restrictions have eased since the survey was conducted. So the outlook could be getting more optimistic. 

“Although most provinces were reopening during this time period, we would hope that the further removal of social distancing measures following the survey period would provide at least modestly better results for job prospects if it were conducted today,” said CIBC economists Andrew Grantham and Katherine Judge, in a note.

Compared to the previous CSCE in April for the first quarter, expectations for wage growth and household income growth eased. Plans for spending tumbled, with households focusing on essential products and services. 

Survey respondents also said they excepted a pause for real estate prices for the next 12 months.

“Overall, consumer expectations for house price growth in Canada dropped to zero. The decline was widespread across provinces. Expectations in Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia were negative,” said the Bank of Canada.

Respondents said they expect inflation to remain near the Bank of Canada’s target range of between 1 and 3 per cent.

<h2 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Sour business outlook” data-reactid=”32″>Sour business outlook

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The Bank of Canada also released its Business Outlook Survey, which found business sentiment is negative in all regions and all sectors due to COVID-19.” data-reactid=”33″>The Bank of Canada also released its Business Outlook Survey, which found business sentiment is negative in all regions and all sectors due to COVID-19.

“Businesses in most regions and sectors intend to significantly cut their investment spending. Hiring plans are muted, although a quarter of firms plan to refill some positions after recent layoffs,” said the Bank of Canada.

The Business Outlook Survey found labour shortages are easing. But credit conditions are tightening, although government measures have helped offset the situation.

The survey was conducted from mid-May to early June. 

“The composite indicator fell to -7 in Q2, from -0.5 in the prior quarter, and a level close to the lowest reading seen during the 2008/09 financial crisis,” said CIBC’s Grantham and Judge.

“The headline reading probably could have been even worse if the survey had been conducted a month earlier, as the mid-May to early June survey period coincided with provincial governments reopening their economies but came before we had seen the spike in Covid-19 case counts in the US.”

Nearly a third of businesses said the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) helped avoid layoffs.

Respondents said the labour pool was vast enough to hire workers if they had to ramp up.

“However, a few businesses noted that the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit has made it difficult to retain current workers or hire new staff.”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Jessy Bains is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter&nbsp;@jessysbains.” data-reactid=”42″>Jessy Bains is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jessysbains.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;and&nbsp;Android.” data-reactid=”43″>Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.

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