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ATB's economic forecast for Alberta grows more optimistic – Calgary Herald

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine and rising oil prices have contributed to Alberta’s rising GDP

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Alberta is on pace for a better economic year than previously predicted, due in large part to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the conflict could have negative effects if it drags on.

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Rob Roach, ATB’s deputy chief economist, said Thursday that Alberta’s GDP is now expected to rise five per cent, up from a forecast of 4.4 per cent before the invasion. While he said the report is positive, there are some headwinds.

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Much of the positivity has been driven by an oil and gas sector that continues to outperform expectations, due in large part to the conflict in Ukraine that has strained global supplies and driven up demand for oil and gas from Canada.

“We do think Alberta will have a decent year and overall economic growth, but it will vary for a lot of different individuals, families and businesses,” he said. “It might not feel like a particularly good year because of the turbulence and still trying to recover from the last two years of pandemic.”

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He said despite efforts to diversify Alberta’s economy, the province is still heavily reliant on oil and gas.

He pointed to venture capital investment in the tech sector and startups as an example. Despite record investment of $466 million in Alberta in the first quarter, it pales in comparison to the levels of capital investment before 2014-15 in the energy sector.

“The amount of venture capital coming into the province is really a rounding error to the amount of capital investment that the oil and gas sector spends each year,” he said. “It’s a good thing but it does highlight that the amount of economic boost we get from even a small increase in oil and gas investments can really outweigh even a large increase in other sectors.”

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Trevor Tombe, an economics professor with the University of Calgary and a research fellow at the School of Public Policy, estimated the amount of oil and gas investment pre-bust at around $40 billion to $50 billion per year.

The forecast further predicts Alberta’s GDP growth to drop to 3.4 per cent in 2023 and 2.7 per cent the following year.

The report also projects Alberta’s annual unemployment rate at 6.7 per cent, although the province is currently sitting at 5.9 per cent.

There are other challenges ahead.

The conflict in Ukraine has also inflated the value for other commodities such as wheat, but the gains in the agriculture sector have been largely offset by the rising cost of inputs such as fertilizer due to the war and weather disasters.

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Inflation also continues to be a major issue. Roach said there is hope that the Bank of Canada raising the interest rate will help chill the cost of living increase but it is not a guarantee.

“The fear is if that doesn’t work, if it doesn’t also bring down inflation, we’ll have a situation where we are actually reducing our economic output and slowing growth without a big impact on inflation,” he said. “That’s the worst-case scenario.”

Tombe also said he does not expect the decision by Premier Jason Kenney to resign to knock the province off its trajectory.

“The government doesn’t matter as much as people think for how the economy grows or shrinks, they matter only at the margin — they can nudge things here or there,” said Tombe. “It doesn’t matter who the premier is or who the governing party is in the short term, and in an economy like Alberta, especially, it’s going to rise and fall based on factors external to the province.”

Jaldrich@postmedia.com

Twitter: @JoshAldrich03

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Economy

US-China Relations Thaw With Groups to Discuss Economic, Financial Issues – Bloomberg

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U.S., China agree to forge new economic, financial dialogues

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The U.S. Treasury Department announced Friday it had formally established two new working groups to discuss China-U.S. economic and financial issues, a tentative sign that communication is improving between the two countries following a trip to Beijing by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen this summer.

The new format for regular talks follows years of roiling economic conflict between Beijing and Washington over sanctions, trade restrictions, and the treatment of Chinese and U.S. companies abroad after economic dialogues broke down during the Trump administration.

The working groups will hold regular direct meetings for “frank and substantive discussions on economic and financial policy matters,” the Treasury statement said. It added that the dialogues would also include and “exchange of information on macroeconomic and financial developments.”

The high-level meetings will be led by Yellen on the U.S. side. China’s economic czar, Vice Premier He Lifeng, will oversee the work led by different agencies in Beijing. U.S. Treasury officials will hold dialogues for the economic working group with Beijing’s Finance Ministry, while the financial talks will take place with representatives from China’s Central Bank.

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The new dialogues are part of broader efforts by the White House to reestablish communication channels between Washington and Beijing on a range of geopolitical, security and economic matters following talks between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bali last year. Those efforts have been hampered by hot-button issues, including the discovery of a Chinese spy balloon over the continental United States in February and rolling U.S. trade restrictions aimed at limiting Beijing’s access to U.S. technology.

Nonetheless, the two sides have made strides this year. After abruptly canceling a visit over the spy balloon furor, Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Beijing in June. Yellen’s visit in July was followed by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s in August, where she announced that the two sides had agreed to hold an official ongoing dialogue on commercial issues, beginning in early 2024, drawing in individuals from the private sector with the aim of resolving issues over U.S. commercial access to the Chinese market.

The new dialogues agreed to by Yellen and He appear to have a broader scope, but it is unclear how often the meetings will take place. In Friday’s statement, the Treasury Department said they would happen at a “regular cadence.” Chinese official media released a brief statement confirming the establishment of the working groups that was sparse on detail, but said the group plans to hold “regular and irregular” meetings.

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“These Working Groups will serve as important forums to communicate America’s interests and concerns, promote a healthy economic competition between our two countries with a level playing field for American workers and businesses, and advance cooperation on global challenges,” said Yellen in a statement posted on X, the site formerly known as Twitter, on Friday following the Treasury Department announcement.

Regular high-level economic dialogues between Treasury officials and Beijing were mostly dismantled in 2017, when the Trump administration began implementing sweeping tariffs, trade restrictions and sanctions against Beijing — many of which have remained in place or been extended under the current administration.

Before Yellen’s visit in July, no U.S. treasury secretary had visited Beijing since 2019, when then-Secretary Steven Mnuchin and a team of negotiators conducted limited talks following a total breakdown in discussions months before.

While the new working groups signal a thawing in the economic relationship, communication between the two sides remains fragile. Beijing routinely expresses skepticism of U.S. commitments and has accused officials in Washington of failing to follow through on high-level discussions. Officials in Beijing maintain that the United States has arbitrarily broadened trade and economic restrictions to contain China’s economic growth under the guise of national and economic security.

Most recently, Beijing accused the United States of ongoing economic “bullying” after Biden in August signed an executive order to establish a screening mechanism for outbound investments and to restrict U.S. investment in advanced Chinese technologies, including semiconductors.

“President Biden committed to not seeking to ‘decouple’ from China or halt China’s economic development. We urge the U.S. to follow through on that commitment, stop politicizing, instrumentalizing and weaponizing tech and trade issues,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin following the August announcement.

Yellen and other U.S. officials have sought to push ahead with efforts to reopen channels of communication, while warning that the Biden administration will continue to take targeted actions to protect U.S. national security.

“It is vital that we talk, particularly when we disagree,” said Yellen in her statement on X on Friday.

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Economy

Net zero: Will Rishi Sunak’s changes to climate policies save money?

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LONDON — Amid growing international criticism, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has defended watering down key U.K. climate policies.

In a press conference Wednesday, Sunak announced a series of major U-turns on climate policies, including delaying by five years the target to ban sales of new gas and diesel cars — which will now come into force in 2035 rather than 2030 — and a nine-year delay on phasing out gas boilers, which will now come into force in 2035.

Sunak insisted he was not slowing down efforts to combat climate change. But his government’s own climate adviser called the prime minister’s assertion that the U.K. would still succeed in meeting its 2050 net-zero target “wishful thinking.”

Sunak said the changes were about being “pragmatic” and sparing the British public the “unacceptable cost” of net-zero commitments.

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His home secretary, Suella Braverman, told the BBC that the Conservative government was “not going to save the planet by bankrupting British people.”

The government’s Climate Change Committee — independent advisers on cutting carbon emissions — estimates that meeting Britain’s legally binding goal of reaching net zero by 2050 will require an extra $61 billion of investment every year by 2030.

But the committee has said that once the savings from reduced use of fossil fuels are factored in, the overall resource cost of the transition to net zero will be less than 1% of GDP over the next 30 years. By 2044, the committee has said, breaching net zero should become cost-saving, as newer clean technologies are more efficient than those they are replacing.

Criticism at home and abroad

Sunak’s overhaul of his green targets has been met with criticism at home and internationally.

Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore described the changes as “shocking and disappointing” and “not what the world needs from the United Kingdom.”

Some in the prime minister’s own Conservative Party warned that the changes risk damaging Britain’s reputation as a global leader on the climate.

Sunak decided not to attend the United Nations Climate Summit in New York this week, making him the first British prime minister to miss a U.N. General Assembly in a decade.

Former Conservative minister Alok Sharma, who chaired the 2021 COP26 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, told the BBC Wednesday’s announcement had been met with “consternation” from international colleagues.

“My concern is whether people now look to us and say, ‘Well, if the U.K. is starting to row back on some of these policies, maybe we should do the same,'” he said.

In the U.K., Sunak’s announcement prompted a backlash from climate activists, car manufacturers and the energy industry.

In a statement, U.K. Ford chair Lisa Brankin said, “Our business needs three things from the U.K. government: ambition, commitment and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three.”

And the chief executive of one of Britain’s largest energy suppliers, Eon UK, said the move was a “misstep on many levels.”

Sunak’s pivot occurs as extreme weather due to climate change is growing more frequent

Sunak said the announcement was part of his desire for a more “honest debate” about what reaching net zero will actually mean for the British public.

But he has come under criticism from the British media for claiming to scrap measures that some have pointed out never existed as formal government policy in the first place, such as taxing meat and requiring households to have seven different waste and recycling bins. (The government had previously said it wanted to standardize waste collection in England, although the plan was subsequently delayed and never became policy).

Political analysts say Sunak’s gamble marks a shift for the prime minister, who has spent his first year in office largely steadying the ship after the tumultuous governments of his predecessors Liz Truss and Boris Johnson. With a general election coming up next year, they say, Sunak has chosen net zero as a dividing line.

Sunak’s pivot away from more aggressive action on global warming occurs as extreme weather is becoming more frequent and more intense around the world, including the U.K., because of the effects of climate change. Scientists say this will continue as long as humans continue to emit planet-warming greenhouse gases.

In the U.K., temperatures hit 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) for the first time on record in July 2022. The World Weather Attribution network says this would have been “basically impossible” without climate change.

During this week’s climate summit in New York, London Mayor Sadiq Khan said the capital faced what he called the “incredibly worrying” prospect of seeing 45-degree Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) days in the “forseeable future.”

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