Economy

AUD to USD Forecast: Australian Economy in Focus Amid RBA Rate Path Speculation

Published

5 months ago

April 16, 2024

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point Fed June rate cut fell from 56.1% (April 9) to 18.8% (April 16). The chances of the Fed leaving interest rates at 5.50% in September increased from 8.5% to 31.5% over the same period.

Short-Term Forecast

Near-term AUD/USD trends will likely hinge on Australian employment data, stimulus chatter from Beijing, and Fed speakers. Weaker Australian labor market data could tilt monetary policy divergence toward the US dollar. However, a stimulus package from Beijing would boost buyer appetite for the Aussie dollar.

AUD/USD Price Action

Daily Chart

The AUD/USD sat well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bearish price trends.

An Aussie dollar breakout from the April 16 high of $0.64446 would support a move to the $0.64582 resistance level. A break above the $0.64582 resistance level would bring the $0.65 handle and the 50-day EMA into play.

Considerations should include stimulus discussions from Beijing, updates from the Middle East, and statements from the Fed.

Conversely, an AUD/USD drop below the $0.64 handle could give the bears a run at the $0.62713 support level.

Given a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 35.73, the AUD/USD could fall to the $0.63500 level before entering oversold territory.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite gains almost 100 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

Published

1 day ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

Published

2 days ago

September 13, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

Published

3 days ago

September 12, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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