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Australian economy forecast to rebound in 2021 as pandemic subsides: Reuters poll – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Vivek Mishra

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Australia’s economy, which entered 2021 in better shape than most of its peers, will gain further momentum from the successful domestic suppression of the coronavirus pandemic and supportive policies, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Coronavirus-led lockdowns that began in March last year tipped the economy into its first recession since the early 1990s, breaking one of the world’s longest growth streaks.

But Australia has been relatively successful in curbing the pandemic and largely reopened its economy, resuming activity, domestic traveling and consumer spending.

The Jan. 12-20 Reuters poll of 34 economists forecast Australia’s A$2 trillion ($1.55 trillion) of gross domestic product would expand 3.5% this year – the fastest since polling began for the year in April 2019, although slower than the government’s growth projection of 4.5% – after contracting 3.0% last year.

“We see the recovery continuing, assisted by aggressive policy accommodation, both monetary and fiscal, and continuing growth in Asia. We assume vaccine roll-out will commence in February,” said Andrew Ticehurst, economist at Nomura.

“While the broad outlook is favourable, with unemployment set to rise much less than earlier feared, we expect the recovery to be somewhat constrained by continuing Australia/China tensions and weak population growth, given ongoing travel restrictions.”

Goods exports to China declined nearly 10% to a four-month low in November as diplomatic tensions with Beijing saw the world’s second-biggest importer impose heavy tariffs on imports of Australian coal, beef, barley and wine.

Iron ore – Australia’s top export and a critical ingredient for China’s massive steel sector – has so far been spared, but if China finds alternative sources, as it has for other goods, it could be very damaging.

ALL IS NOT WELL

Although the country’s jobless rate declined to 6.8% in November from a July peak of 7.5%, it remained above pre-COVID-19 levels of around 5%. Some economists forecast it will hold above 6% this year.

That was despite billions of dollars in tax concessions to businesses and aggressive monetary policy easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The RBA, which has slashed its official cash rate by a cumulative 65 basis points to an all-time low of 0.1% since the pandemic began, is expected to leave interest rates just above zero through at least 2022.

That is unlikely to stoke inflation as low wage growth keeps price pressures subdued, but it will push house prices higher.

In a report last week, the central bank said a 100-basis- point reduction in interest rates could push real housing prices up 30% after about three years.

The poll forecasts consumer prices would rise 1.5% this year and 1.7% next, still below the RBA’s comfort zone of 2 to 3%.

For decades, wage and price growth have remained largely subdued, and with the global pandemic ongoing that is expected to continue.

In the third quarter, Australian wages grew just 0.10% – the slowest pace on record – hurting household spending.

“No one really understands how bad the underlying picture is because no one’s pulled away that plaster yet. If you think zero real wage growth and house price growth of 10% is good news, then everything is looking great and if you don’t, then everything’s looking pretty rocky,” said Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank.

(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)

($1 = 1.2937 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Vivek Mishra; polling by Shaloo Shrivastava and Md Manzer Hussain; editing by Jonathan Cable, Larry King)

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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