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Australia’s Aggressive Policy Tightening Set to Weigh on Economy – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Australia is on track for its steepest tightening of monetary policy in a generation, raising the risk of an economic slowdown as the housing market shifts into reverse and consumers pull back on spending.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will lift its key interest rate by 50 basis points for a third consecutive month on Tuesday to 1.85%, according to all but one of 23 economists surveyed. That will take its combined tightening since May to 175 basis-points, the biggest increase inside six months since 1994.

“The RBA is behind the pack,” said Andrew Ticehurst, senior economist and rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. The current cash rate is “not appropriate for an economy with an unemployment rate at around a 50-year low and with core inflation running at a 6% annualized pace.”

Ticehurst sees the cash rate at 3.35% by year’s end while money markets are pricing in about 3%. Such a sharp pace of tightening will ratchet up loan repayments and weigh on consumption, which accounts for about 60% of economic output. 

Policy makers are trying to rein in inflation that’s running at more than twice the upper end of the RBA’s 2-3% target. They maintain households can cope with further hikes because they built up savings during the pandemic and 3.5% unemployment means most Australians have incomes to meet their obligations.

RBA rate increases flow through quickly to borrowers as most are on variable-rate loans. Figures last week showed early signs of cooling demand with retail sales in June rising at the weakest pace this year. 

Commonwealth Bank of Australia internal data, which captures spending on credit and debit cards at the nation’s largest lender, showed a “clear easing” in consumption in July. 

“There is a clear risk that the volume of household consumption falls by late-2022,” according to Gareth Aird, head of Australia economics at CBA. “We expect forward-looking indicators of the economy to slow sharply.”

Sliding house prices, which are directly linked to perceptions of wealth, are already weighing on consumer confidence. Real estate firm PropTrack expects prices to fall 15% from current levels in 2023, after climbing at an “exceptional pace” over the past two years.

That’s one reason Nomura, CBA, AMP Capital Markets and UBS Group AG predict rate cuts will come as early as next year.

The RBA will publish its quarterly update of forecasts on Friday that’s widely expected to show downgrades to economic growth and employment and a sharp increase in the inflation outlook — in line with Treasury’s outlook last week. 

The RBA doesn’t release its own projections for interest rates.

“We expect the labor market to start easing gradually later in 2023,” Felicity Emmett and Catherine Birch, senior economists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in a research note. “This will add to the case for the RBA to cut rates” in mid-2024.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite flat Friday, U.S. markets mixed as Dow posts new record

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was essentially unchanged Friday, while U.S. markets were mixed to end the week, with the Dow ekeing out a new record high.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 1.28 points at 23,867.55.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 38.17 points at 42,063.36. The S&P 500 index was down 11.09 points at 5,702.55, while the Nasdaq composite was down 65.66 points at 17,948.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.72 cents UScompared with 73.73 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 16 cents at US$71 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up 12 cents at US$2.72 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$31.60 at US$2,646.20 an ounceand the December copper contract was down a penny at US$4.34 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Bank of Canada trying to figure out how AI might affect inflation, Macklem says

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OTTAWA – Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says there is a lot of uncertainty around how artificial intelligence could affect the economy moving forward, including the labour market and price growth.

In a speech in Toronto at the Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference, the governor said Friday that the central bank is approaching the issue cautiously to get a better understanding of how AI could affect its job of keeping inflation low and stable.

“Be wary of anyone who claims to know where AI will take us. There is too much uncertainty to be confident,” Macklem said in prepared remarks.

“We don’t know how quickly AI will continue to advance. And we don’t know the timing and extent of its economic and social impacts.”

The governor said AI has the potential of increasing labour productivity, which would raise living standards and grow the economy without boosting inflation.

In the short-term, he said investment in AI is adding to demand and could be inflationary.

However, Macklem also highlighted more pessimistic scenarios, where AI could destroy more jobs than it creates or lead to less competition rather than more.

The governor called on academics and businesses to work together to shed more light on the potential effects of AI on the economy.

“When you enter a dark room, you don’t go charging in. You cautiously feel your way around. And you try to find the light switch. That is what we are doing. What we central bankers need is more light,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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