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Australia’s Economy Rebounds, Confronts Darkening Global Outlook – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — Australia’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter from a virus-driven contraction, yet enters a bumpy period from faster inflation fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that is set to test households’ resilience.

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The economy expanded 3.4% in the final three months of 2021, with most of the gain coming from a burst of household spending in states that emerged from lockdowns, government data showed Wednesday. The current quarter is clouded by a war-driven spike in energy prices and renewed global supply chain snarls.

“It’s the consumer that is cornerstone of the economic recovery,” said Jo Masters, chief economist at EY in Sydney. “The household sector is cashed-up and keen to spend. How households react to rising inflation and interest rates will be critical to the role of the consumer as the economic engine.”

Australia’s economy has already been buffeted by an outbreak of the omicron variant of coronavirus and now faces the darkening global outlook. That helps explain the Reserve Bank’s dovish stance as it uses record-low rates to run the economy hot and push unemployment down to lows not seen since the 1970s.

Today’s report will nonetheless be a boost for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who is trying to burnish his government’s economic credentials in order to reverse declining poll ratings ahead of an election due by May.

Markets failed to react much to the GDP data after bonds rallied and the currency fell overnight in response to events in Ukraine.

What Bloomberg Economics Says

“The rebound in Australia’s GDP in the fourth quarter will probably reverse course in 1Q 2022.”

“It may take until 2Q 2022 for the GDP data to give a clear read on the underlying health of the economy. “

James McIntyre, economist. Read full note here

Economists also see fallout from Russian’s invasion of Ukraine boosting inflation in an economy where wages growth is still tepid.

“The biggest economic threat remains inflation,” said Russel Chesler, head of Investments and Capital Markets at VanEck Associates Corp.

“With rising oil prices and now wheat prices shooting higher, we are likely to see a spike in the price of food and energy products. With global supply chain bottlenecks too being exacerbated by the war and likely to add even more upward pressure on inflation.”

Other details from the GDP report:

  • Household spending jumped by 6.3%, adding 3.2 percentage points to quarterly GDP

  • Household spending in NSW, Victoria and the ACT — which emerged from lockdown — rose 9.6%, compared with 1.6% elsewhere

  • The national household savings rate fell to 13.6% from 19.8%

  • Compensation of employees advanced by 2%, reflecting both increased hours worked and employment

  • The rise in household final consumption expenditure was partly offset by a 1.4% fall in private investment which was hit by shortages of labor and construction materials.

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Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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