“While provincially the economy is slowing, there are sectors that are doing a little better. I think the one that’s probably the most prominent in its struggles is the forestry industry and we’re starting to really see that link into things like housing demand as well,” he says. “So in the big forestry-focused communities — Kamloops, Vancouver Island and the north — we’re off to a pretty slow start in 2020 with all of those markets actually experiencing declining sales year over year in January.”
Ogmundson says there was hope that the provincial budget released yesterday (Feb. 18) would include more support for forestry communities impacted by the crisis.
“There wasn’t a lot — there was about $13 million allocated for the forestry sector. It’s kind of a long term problem and there aren’t really easy solutions, a lot of it is on the supply side, some of the more short term stuff is difficulties with our largest trading partner in the United States. Also just softer global demand because the global economy has slowed due to rising trade tensions around the world.”
He adds that there are many issues that are unlikely to be fixed quickly, but there is optimism for the Kamloops housing market this year. Ogmundson says sales are expected to rise roughly three per cent with prices staying mostly static.
“In the north, we were more optimistic to start the year (that) we’d see a little growth in sales there as well, but that forecast is looking like it might not be a good one because we’ve seen much softer sales to start the year.”
Ogmundson says a provincial economic recovery is expected this year — much of which will be focused in the north due to the construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline.
“There will be some trickle down effects to a lot of sectors that support that LNG project, so construction and other support services on the general kind of trade environment, and manufacturing which is big in Kamloops and the north,” he says. “I think we should see a bit of an upswing just as perhaps those trade relationships become a little less volatile hopefully over the next year.
“So I think there are some bright spots — interest rates are low and we’ve got some good news on changes to the mortgage stress test yesterday as well so I think there are enough that we should see growing housing demand and growing home sales over the next year, but again we’re talking about sort of less than five per cent growth in terms of home sales for most markets.”
TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.
The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.
However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.
Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
