B.C. housing prices to drop roughly 5% in 2023, real estate association predicts | Canada News Media
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B.C. housing prices to drop roughly 5% in 2023, real estate association predicts

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British Columbia’s housing market is unlikely to bounce back to the record-breaking days of 2021 anytime soon, according to the latest forecast from the B.C. Real Estate Association.

The BCREA predicts a residential sales slump of 34.4 per cent on the Multiple Listing Service from last year to the end of this year and an additional drop of 11.4 per cent in 2023.

The association, which represents more than 25,000 realtors in the province, also forecasts a decrease in the provincial average home price of about five per cent next year.

“I think 2023 is going to be a challenging year for the housing market,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson told CKNW’s Jill Bennett Show.

“Interest rates are the highest we’ve seen since 2007 and we’re probably going to see the economy slowing, so those factors mean continued slow activity in the housing market.”

The Fraser Valley is forecast to see the greatest average price drop on the Multiple Listing Service in 2023 — about 7.8 per cent, according to the fourth quarter update released on Tuesday. Chilliwack and surrounding communities follow with an expected decrease of 6.2 per cent.

Greater Vancouver could see an average price drop of 5.2 per cent, the BCREA said, while Victoria could see a decline of 4.3 per cent. The Kootenay region is also expected to see a 4.3 per cent drop, while average prices in the Okanagan could decrease by 4.9 per cent.

“Depending on where you’re looking across the province, home prices peaked in February of 2022. They fell for about four or five months and right now are really levelling out,” said Ogmundson.

Across the province, sales have continued their predicted decline and about 30,000 listings are currently on the market, the economist added. He said the province ought to have about 45,000 listings or more for to be considered “in-balance” long-term.

“We’re just not seeing inventory gains like we’ve seen in previous slow-downs … that’s why we’re seeing prices kind of level out.”

By the end of the year, the greatest decreases are forecast in Chilliwack and District, the Fraser Valley, Greater Vancouver, the Okanagan and Victoria, at 47.9 per cent, 41.6 per cent, 33.2 per cent, 33.1 per cent, and 31.7 per cent, respectively.

“Things are very slow and I think we’re going to carry that into next year — hopefully things will pick up in the second half of next year — but generally we’re going to have very slow market activity for the next 12 months,” Ogmundson said.

The BCREA forecast echoes that of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., which is also calling for a steeper decline in the Canadian housing market amid higher-than-expected inflation and interest rate hikes so far this year.

Last month, the Crown corporation said in an updated housing outlook it believes the national average home price in Canada will fall 14.3 per cent by the second quarter of 2023, as compared with the historical peak of $770,812 seen in the first quarter of this year.

The latest inflation reading from Statistics Canada showed prices rose at an annual clip of 7.0 per cent in August, with the “core” metrics staying hot. The Bank of Canada has made it clear since that its benchmark rate will need to rise higher still before the end of the year to tame inflation.

CMHC expects the central bank’s policy rate to hit 4.0 per cent by year’s end, up from 0.25 per cent at the start of 2022.

— with files from Craig Lord

&copy 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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