B.C. real estate faces COVID-19 slump. But how deep and for how long? - Global News | Canada News Media
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B.C. real estate faces COVID-19 slump. But how deep and for how long? – Global News

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British Columbia’s real estate market is bracing for a major hit from the COVID-19 pandemic, but experts are split on how serious the downturn will be.

The B.C. Real Estate Association is predicting the pandemic will cause an initial deep recession leading to sharp decline in home sales, but a rebound by next summer driven by pent-up demand if the pandemic has not dragged on too long.

The consequences of a major real estate slowdown could be pronounced.

The B.C. government’s 2020-2021 budget envisioned about $1.6 billion in revenue from the property transfer tax, and the real estate sector, which employs tens of thousands of people, is worth more than $22 billion annually to the province’s GDP, according to the industry non-profit, the Urban Development Institute.


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Signs of trouble are already appearing in Metro Vancouver, which put up reasonably strong home sales in March that have since dropped off sharply — despite April traditionally being one of the hottest months of the year.

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“I suspect you’ll probably see sales volumes for April down about 70 per cent from last year,” said Vancouver Realtor Steve Saretsky.






1:55
Real estate agents continue work with virtual tours and heightened safety measures


Real estate agents continue work with virtual tours and heightened safety measures

Economist Tom Davidoff with UBC’s Sauder School of Business said Metro Vancouver’s market had been building up to a strong spring after a several-year slump, when the pandemic hit.

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While sales have slowed, he said prices have remained sticky — so far.

“Unlike the stock market, we haven’t seen panic-selling in the Vancouver real estate market, so prices have remained steady,” Davidoff said.

“Buyers have disappeared, sellers have disappeared, and the ratio of buyers to sellers hasn’t changed all that much.”


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Further complicating the picture are the pandemic’s complex effects on industry financing.

Cameron McNeill, a partner with Vancouver real estate marketing firm MLA Canada Ltd., said that while construction is visibly continuing on existing projects, most of those units are already sold.

But he said a noticeable decrease in presale activity means developers won’t have the resources or the incentive to break ground on new projects, cutting off future supply.

The mortgage picture has also changed. The Bank of Canada has lowered its overnight lending rate, but banks have actually hiked rates on fixed-term mortgages.

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Coronavirus: Okanagan real estate market braces for slowdown


Coronavirus: Okanagan real estate market braces for slowdown

Vancouver mortgage broker Sherlock Yam said the hikes reflect what banks see as growing risk in the housing market.

“They’re expecting that there will be a few defaults, and a few people that won’t be able to afford their mortgage payments after this pandemic and after that six-month deferral program,” said Yam.

About 20 per cent of his clients are investors sitting on the sidelines, he said, waiting for homeowners to panic.


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Recession or depression? Length of global economic standstill likely to decide

“When people realize the end is not in sight, and this could last for a few months to a year, people will start to get a little worried,” he said.

“I know that there are investors waiting for that to happen, when they smell the blood they will start picking up some of those properties, but they’re just waiting.”

Davidoff agreed.

“It can’t slow down forever, because I think some people are going to have to sell,” he said.

“If we have a prolonged downturn in the economy, it’s very unlikely to me that people who have great businesses and are starved for cash aren’t going to find it attractive to sell a home to finance those other investments that are cash-short.”

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Montreal’s real estate market goes up against COVID-19


Montreal’s real estate market goes up against COVID-19

McNeill, on the other hand, predicted a pricing trend more in line with the real estate association: A short-term slowdown with a rebound in 2021.

“There’s not going to be a buying opportunity. It’s going to be a patient time as the market returns to normal,” he said.

“In the medium- to the long-term, there’s going to be incredible forces still bringing population to the city, and we just don’t have the housing supply in order to be able to satisfy that need.

-With files from John Hua

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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