B.C. realtors expect not only to sell more homes this year and the next compared to 2019.
They also anticipate prices to rise in 2020 and 2021.
The B.C. Real Estate Association predicts 2020 to finish with a 7.7 percent increase in average price over 2019.
The BCREA also forecasts a further increase of 3.7 percent in 2021.
In Greater Vancouver, the association anticipates the average price to jump 5.9 percent over 2019.
For 2021, the average price in the region is predicted to rise 2.4 percent.
In the Fraser Valley, the BCREA expects the average price to grow 6.7 percent in 2020, and 2.6 percent in 2021.
It can be recalled that the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation thinks otherwise.
On June 4, 2020, CMHC predicted a nine to 18 percent decline in average home prices in the country over the next year.
The federal housing agency reiterated its dim outlook a few weeks later on June 23.
That was when CMHC released its outlook report for the summer market.
“House prices will likely fall because of uncertainty over the economy’s path,” the agency stated particularly for major urban centres.
Unlike the CMHC, the BCREA has rosy prospects, which it laid out in its third quarter housing forecast Tuesday (August 25).
In terms of sales, the association predicts 82,380 transactions in 2020, representing a 6.5 percent increase over 2020.
In 2021, the BCREA forecasts sales to rise to 96,860, for a further 17.6 percent increase.
According to the association, a “recovering economy and low mortgage rates” will “drive demand”.
The BCREA noted that market activity has been strong amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
While sales “initially fell to historic lows in April”, the association noted that the market later “soared, more than regaining pre-pandemic levels”.
The same phenomenon happened in the rest of the country.
The Canadian Real Estate Association recently reported that the residential market set a new record in July 2020.
The CREA reported that sales last month “posted the highest level of any month in history”.
According to the national association, a total of 62,355 transactions happened in July 2020, marking the “highest monthly sales figure on record going back more than 40 years”.
In its third quarter housing forecast, the BCREA noted that the recession caused by the pandemic is “on pace to be one of the worst on record” for the province.
“However, looking at recent data in the housing market, it would be difficult to tell there was a recession at all,” the association stated.
The BCREA pointed out that the “explanation for the counter-intuitive performance of the housing market lies in the very unusual characteristics of the COVID-19 recession”.
“Unlike in a typical recession, many of the job losses have been felt in lower-wage, frontline service sector jobs, typically held by younger workers,” the association stated.
“Meanwhile,” the BCREA continued, “higher-wage sectors that tend to drive the ownership market have seen employment levels fully recover.”
“As a result, sales activity has spiked as record-low mortgage rates unleashed a wave of pent-up demand previously sidelined by the pandemic,” the association explained.
TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.
The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.
However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.
Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
