B.C.'s economy forecast to remain steady, despite slower near-term economic growth | BC Gov News - BC Gov News | Canada News Media
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B.C.’s economy forecast to remain steady, despite slower near-term economic growth | BC Gov News – BC Gov News

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Like other jurisdictions, B.C. is expected to see slower economic growth through 2023 because of global inflation and higher interest rates, before steady growth resumes in the medium term, according to projections from private-sector forecasters.

Each year, B.C.’s finance minister meets with the Economic Forecast Council (EFC), a 13-member council of private-sector forecasters from throughout Canada, in preparation for the next year’s budget. This is the second year that an additional set of discussions was added, providing an opportunity to consult with an Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Advisory Council to explore how the provincial government can continue to build a more inclusive, sustainable economy and support well-being in British Columbia.

The EFC anticipates the province’s economy will grow by 2.9% in 2022 and 0.4% in 2023; slower than their January 2022 forecasts of 4.2% and 2.7%, respectively. The updated figures are similar to what was presented in the Province’s Second Quarterly Report. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is then expected to pick up, with an increase of 1.6% in 2024, followed by gains of 2.3%, 2.3% and 2.1% in 2025, 2026 and 2027, respectively. The reduction in the near-term outlook is consistent with other jurisdictions and reflects persistent global inflation and interest rates rising higher and more rapidly than expected throughout Canada.

“We’re entering this period of slower growth and challenging global economic times in a strong position to continue supporting people, because B.C.’s economy grew more than most last year,” said Selina Robinson, Minister of Finance. “We’ll use the resources we have to address the issues that matter most to people, including housing, health care and building a sustainable economy that works for everyone – but no matter what is on the horizon and no matter what the numbers show, this government will continue to be here to support people.”

Discussions with the EFC and the ESG Advisory Council focused on current events, issues affecting B.C.’s economy and the environmental, social and governance opportunities and challenges facing the province. Topics at the meetings included:

  • global inflation and monetary policy impacts;
  • government policies to stimulate investment and ensure shared prosperity;
  • socioeconomic factors in B.C., such as inequality, Indigenous partnerships, and well-being;
  • environment, climate change and the transition to a lower carbon economy;
  • housing affordability and supply;
  • labour market dynamics and immigration; and
  • opportunities for businesses to build on B.C.’s strong ESG profile.

“We are committed to building an inclusive economy, where environmental and social sustainability is the basis for future growth,” said Robinson. “A strong social, cultural and economic foundation is key to successful and resilient communities. We know this, and we know generations will benefit from the decisions we make right now.”

Forecasts and feedback from the two councils will be used to inform the next provincial budget, which will be released on Feb. 28, 2023. EFC members will also have an opportunity to submit revised forecasts in early January.

Quick Facts:

  • In the Province’s Second Quarterly Report, B.C. projected a revised operating surplus of $5.7 billion in the 2022-23 fiscal year.
  • Since the summer, B.C. has rolled out approximately $2 billion in affordability measures.
  • Environmental, Social and Governance are three main categories often discussed when evaluating sustainability performance, risk-mitigation planning and societal well-being.

Learn More:

To read B.C.’s Second Quarterly Report, visit: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/governments/finances/reports/quarterly-reports

For information about new and existing support measures for B.C. residents, visit: https://strongerbc.gov.bc.ca/cost-of-living/

For more about the StrongerBC Economic Plan, visit: https://strongerbc.gov.bc.ca/plan/

To learn about the ways B.C. is committed to environmental, social and governance principles, read the ESG summary report here: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/british-columbians-our-governments/government-finances/debt-management/bc-esg-report.pdf

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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