B.C. to lose economic pole position in 2024: TD Economics | Canada News Media
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B.C. to lose economic pole position in 2024: TD Economics

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Remember that recession that economists have been promising ever since high inflation started in the later part of 2021?

It still hasn’t materialized. But by next year, TD Economics expects Canada will see at least an economic cooling, with B.C. leading the way in terms of negative indicators.

Canadian and American economies have, so far, defied normal cycles, in which rising interest rates (intended to tame to inflation) would typically have put the brakes on an over-heated economy by now.

“At least for Canada, I think it’s really a consumer-driven propulsion that’s been to the surprise of most people,” said TD economist Marc Ercolao. “And that’s also coming from a strong labour and employment market picture that appears to be defying the physics of the traditional economic cycles.”

In its most recent provincial forecast, TD Economics has had to revise its projections for real GDP growth across Canada, based on stronger than expected household spending.

Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to have the highest real GDP growth in 2023, at 2.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively, while B.C.’s real GDP growth is expected to be just 1.2 per cent. Ontario’s real GDP growth is expected to about the same — 1.3 per cent.

“Despite the impressive staying power of household spending across the regions, we still believe that the resilience is on borrowed time,” TD Economics says in its new provincial forecast.

“In recent months, cracks have been seen in both consumer spending and labour markets.”

TD Economics now expects unemployment rates across Canada to rise between 0.8 and 2 percentage points by the end of next year, and it warns that B.C. may finally cede its decade-long position of leading the country on positive economic indicators, like high growth and low unemployment.

“As spending and investment gears down into 2024, economic growth and job gains are likely to effectively fizzle out.”

The forecast notes “industry-based GDP data” for B.C. indicated growth of 3.6 per cent in 2022.

“However, last year marked the end to a decade-long streak of growth outperformance relative to the nation,” the TD Economics provincial forecast notes. “What’s more, the provincial economy appears set for a larger cyclical downswing this year and next relative to most other provinces.”

TD Economics is forecasting B.C.’s real GDP growth will be just 0.5 per cent in 2024, and that unemployment could rise to 5.9 per cent.

“As household spending eases, B.C. firms have taken their foot off the hiring accelerator so far this year,” the provincial forecast says. “Job growth in the January-May period slowed to a more pedestrian 1.5 per cent (year-over-year), below the national pace.”

It also notes that, “despite a burst of activity related to the development of the Kitimat LNG project” (LNG Canada), construction activity in B.C. “more broadly is poised to exert a drag on the economy as capital expenditure intentions point to a 6 per cent contraction.”

To address inflation, central banks in Canada, the U.S. and elsewhere have been raising interest rates. Eventually, that can be expected to result in less spending on big-ticket items, as the cost of borrowing increases.

“We really are riding this momentum wave – this prolonged strength that’s been defying traditional economic cycles,” Ercolao said. “I think it’s the consensus that we still expect the provinces to head into the territory of choppy waters. It’s only a matter of time before the interest rates bite.

“Forward-looking, high interest rates are likely going to weigh on the B.C. consumer and businesses the most.”

On a positive note, B.C. is still very much a resource economy, and commodity prices are expected to remain relatively strong, the forecast predicts.

“Most commodity prices are still expected to remain at or above their longer-term averages, supporting activity in commodity producing provinces.”
 

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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