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Bad goaltending remains the ultimate coach killer – TSN

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On Wednesday afternoon, the Vegas Golden Knights announced the firing of head coach Gerard Gallant. The firing was a shocker – Gallant’s team made the postseason (including a Stanley Cup appearance and his Jack Adams Trophy win in their inaugural season) in every year of his tenure, and, despite some challenges this season, the club is vying for another playoff berth.

Gallant’s firing marked the seventh coaching firing in less than two months, a continuation of one of the more unstable runs for coaching retention we have seen in recent history. Gallant’s removal certainly differed from most of the others, though – absent the firings of Bill Peters and Jim Montgomery for off-ice issues, most of the other teams who changed coaches were looking up at a bunch of teams in the standings and arguably in need of a fresh voice.

That’s not necessarily the case in Vegas. You could make the argument that the team hasn’t met expectations – we still, by and large, consider this team a Stanley Cup contender – but that’s not exactly solid footing. Despite their intermittent struggles, the Golden Knights are still in a playoff position and just a few points back of first place in the Pacific Division. 

Plus, the team’s underlying numbers have been strong for some time now. At the time of Gallant’s firing, the Golden Knights were second in expected goal and scoring chance differential, and carried one of the league’s better power-play units. Combine that with Gallant’s otherwise sterling record of producing playoff-calibre teams in Vegas (save one ugly penalty call), and it’s hard to see how Gallant blew through so much equity in such little time. 

The one thing that’s true about Gallant’s team this year though is that the goaltending has been a weak point. The backup position – primarily carried by Malcolm Subban – has been in limbo since the team came into existence, and Marc-Andre Fleury’s play has recently fallen below league averages. At the team level in all situations, the Golden Knights are tied for 19th in stop rate. Adjusting for shot quality does little to help their cause, as the Fleury/Subban tandem was 18th in Goals Above Replacement contributions over the same period.

What is noteworthy to me, as tends to be the case for just about every head coach fired for performance reasons, is that the goaltending in Vegas has collapsed very recently. You might read the above paragraph and conclude that the Golden Knights goaltenders have been mediocre this season, but that hasn’t been the case more recently. Their stop rates have cratered over the past 10 games, with the Fleury and Subban tandem stopping just 85.8 per cent of shots. That’s the type of short-term goaltending collapse that can fundamentally damage a front office’s perspective of the broader team performance.

This is actually a tried-and-true rule in NHL circles, especially recently. If you are a head coach and your goatlending is terrible for a few weeks, you are probably sitting on the proverbial hot seat. In fact, if you look at coaching terminations over the last three years, you can see just how brutal the goaltending has been right up until the point of the termination. (I used a 10-game average, but different segmentation yields similar results):

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Save percentage is not exclusively a measure of goaltending performance – it is also a reflection of how teams defend in front of their respective goaltenders. To that end, tanking stop rates like the ones you see here could be as much a reflection of bad goaltending as they could be of bad defensive play. If there are systemic or structural issues with how teams defend in front of their net, well, I would argue that’s much more a reflection of poor coaching than poor luck. 

But in most cases, those awful stop rates are just fleeting moments in time and appear to be more of a reflection of intermittently bad goaltending than anything else. Consider the Golden Knights again as a quick example – a puck-dominant team that has remained so even through an ugly losing stretch:

If you knew nothing else about this team other than the above data, you would reasonably conclude that this team has either a shooting talent problem (possibly true) or a goaltending problem (probably true). The rest of the skating group appears to be outplaying the opposition on a routine basis – and over the last 10 games that is even more pronounced. Of course, even-strength play – while the most critical game state – isn’t the only state. Golden Knights fans know that the real problem lately has been that the team can’t get a stop on the penalty kill, where their 15.4 goals against per-60 minutes are 30th in the NHL over the last 10-games.

It’s hard to know what else may have created a rift between Gallant and the Vegas from office, and the same point can be made about a number of the fired coaches and their respective front offices. But one thing that is certain is that bad goaltending, even over brief stretches, remains the ultimate coach killer. In the post-Mike Yeo era, we are starting to see front offices even more vigilant and aggressive in making coaching changes, even if the driving factor is a bad and brief run of goaltending that always seems to favourably regress over a longer period of time. 

But one man’s loss is another man’s gain. I think it’s fair to say that if Peter DeBoer sees some bounce back from his goaltending tandem in the next few weeks the former San Jose bench boss will have assumed control of a team that, save for some shaky goaltending, still looks every bit the part of a serious contender. 

Data via Hockey Reference, Evolving Hockey, and Natural Stat Trick

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Champions Trophy host Pakistan says it’s not been told India wants to play cricket games elsewhere

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November 8, 2024

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LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.

“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”

Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.

The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.

Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.

“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”

Pakistan hosted last year’s Asia Cup but all India games were played in Sri Lanka under a hybrid model for the tournament. Only months later Pakistan did travel to India for the 50-over World Cup.

Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.

“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”

The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.

“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”

Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.

“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.

___

AP cricket:

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Dabrowski, Routlife into WTA doubles final with win over Melichar-Martinez, Perez

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November 8, 2024

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RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.

Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.

The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.

The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.

Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.

Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Winger Tajon Buchanan back with Canada after recovering from broken leg

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November 8, 2024

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Inter Milan winger Tajon Buchanan, recovered from a broken leg suffered in training at this summer’s Copa America, is back in Jesse Marsch’s Canada squad for the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal against Suriname.

The 25-year-old from Brampton, Ont., underwent surgery July 3 to repair a fractured tibia in Texas.

Canada, ranked 35th in the world, plays No. 136 Suriname on Nov. 15 in Paramaribo. The second leg of the aggregate series is four days later at Toronto’s BMO Field.

There is also a return for veteran winger Junior Hoilett, who last played for Canada in June in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s debut at the Canadian helm. The 34-year-old from Brampton, now with Scotland’s Hibernian, has 15 goals in 63 senior appearances for Canada.

Midfielder Ismael Kone, recovered from an ankle injury sustained on club duty with France’s Marseille, also returns. He missed Canada’s last three matches since the fourth-place Copa America loss to Uruguay in July.

But Canada will be without centre back Derek Cornelius, who exited Marseille’s win Sunday over Nantes on a stretcher after suffering an apparent rib injury.

The Canadian men will prepare for Suriname next week at a camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

“We are looking forward to getting the group together again with the mindset that there is a trophy on the line,” Marsch said in a statement. “We want to end 2024 the right way with two excellent performances against a competitive Suriname squad and continue building on our tremendous growth this past summer.”

The quarterfinal winners advance to the Nations League Finals at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the two semifinals scheduled for March 20 and the final and third-place playoff March 23, and qualify for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.

Thirteen of the 23 players on the Canadian roster are 25 or younger, with 19-year-old defender Jamie Knight-Lebel, currently playing for England’s Crewe Alexandra on loan from Bristol City, the youngest.

Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies captains the side with Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller adding veteran support.

Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Theo Bair are joined in attack by Minnesota United’s Tani Oluwaseyi.

Niko Sigur, a 21-year-old midfielder with Croatia’s Hadjuk Split, continues in the squad after making his debut in the September friendly against Mexico.

Suriname made it to the Nations League quarterfinals by finishing second to Costa Rica in Group A of the Nations League, ahead of No. 104 Guatemala, No. 161 Guyana and unranked Martinique and Guadeloupe.

“A good team,” Osorio said of Suriname. “These games are always tricky and they’re not easy at all … Suriname is a (former) Dutch colony and they’ll have Dutch players playing at high levels.”

“They won’t be someone we overlook at all,” added the Toronto FC captain, who has 81 Canada caps to his credit.

Located on the northeast coast of South America between Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname was granted independence in 1975 by the Netherlands.

Canada has faced Suriname twice before, both in World Cup qualifying play, winning 4-0 in suburban Chicago in June 2021 and 2-1 in Mexico City in October 1977.

The Canadian men, along with Mexico, the United States and Panama, received a bye into the final eight of the CONCACAF Nations League.

Canada, No. 2 in the CONCACAF rankings, drew Suriname as the best-placed runner-up from League A play.

Canada lost to Jamaica in last year’s Nations League quarterfinal, ousted on the away-goals rule after the series ended in a 4-4 draw. The Canadians lost 2-0 to the U.S. in the final of the 2022-23 tournament and finished fifth in 2019-20.

Canada defeated Panama 2-1 last time out, in an Oct. 15 friendly in Toronto.

Goalkeepers Maxime Crepeau and Jonathan Sirois, defenders Joel Waterman, Laryea and Miller and Osorio took part in a pre-camp this week in Toronto for North America-based players.

Canada Roster

Goalkeepers: Maxime Crepeau, Portland Timbers (MLS); Jonathan Sirois, CF Montreal (MLS); Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota United FC (MLS).

Defenders: Moise Bombito, OGC Nice (France); Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich (Germany); Richie Laryea, Toronto FC (MLS); Alistair Johnston, Celtic (Scotland); Jamie Knight-Lebel. Crewe Alexandra, on loan from Bristol City (England); Kamal Miller, Portland Timbers (MLS); Joel Waterman, CF Montreal (MLS).

Midfielders: Ali Ahmed. Vancouver Whitecaps (MLS); Tajon Buchanan, Inter Milan (Italy); Mathieu Choiniere, Grasshopper Zurich (Switzerland); Stephen Eustaquio, FC Porto (Portugal); Junior Hoilett, Hibernian FC (Scotland); Ismael Kone, Olympique Marseille (France); Jonathan Osorio, Toronto FC (MLS); Jacob Shaffelburg, Nashville SC (MLS); Niko Sigur, Hadjuk Split (Croatia).

Forwards: Theo Bair, AJ Auxerre (France); Jonathan David, LOSC Lille (France); Cyle Larin, RCD Mallorca (Spain); Tani Oluwaseyi, Minnesota United (MLS).

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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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