Band-Aid Politics. How the Kremlin is Dealing With the Fallout from Prigozhin's Mutiny - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Canada News Media
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Band-Aid Politics. How the Kremlin is Dealing With the Fallout from Prigozhin’s Mutiny – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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The uprising has highlighted a crisis of management in Russia’s political system and the huge contradiction within the Russian armed forces. But it looks like the Kremlin is not intending to take any measures in response, apart from dictating how state propaganda should frame the event

The armed uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group forced President Vladimir Putin to return to Russia’s television screens. Now, the president makes daily appearances on air: two emergency speeches (an unusual genre for the Kremlin), a meeting with security officials, and a meet-and-greet with crowds of people in Dagestan (something we haven’t seen since before the pandemic). Putin’s media appearances are now more frequent than when he began the war with Ukraine last year or announced mobilization in September.

The reasons for this are clear: Prigozhin’s “March of Justice” on Moscow was an unprecedented shock for Russian society, its bureaucracy, and security officials. It was a violation of both the unwritten rules of the game, and the laws of the Russian Federation.

While everyone was seeking explanations from the president last week, Putin only spoke publicly about a nation that had closed ranks in the face of danger and about the heroics of the security services (which had actually done nothing). Overall, Putin came across as a person badly divorced from reality. However, his behavior during the crisis was, in a peculiar way, the result of the Kremlin’s efforts to shape reality.

The two pillars of Putin’s regime are propaganda and the security services. The Wagner uprising damaged both. The Kremlin’s control over the information space was dangerously shaken at the beginning of the insurrection, when state-controlled media fell silent and the sole source of information for what was going on was Prigozhin, who put social media and his media empire to good use.

When Wagner seized Rostov-on-Don in a matter of hours, neither the propaganda machine nor the country’s leaders had anything to put up against Prigozhin’s narrative. As a result, Prigozhin was in total control of the media picture, and all information about what was going on came from him. Nobody saw the column of 25,000 Wagnerites advancing on Moscow, but everyone knew about it.

The Kremlin only seriously entered the media battle the following morning with a televised speech by Putin. The president spoke about the rebels’ hopeless position, about patriotism, solidarity, and professional soldiers. What he said had little in common with reality—all the security services did was dig up a few roads, and most civilians were busy buying foreign currency and posting memes. But Putin’s speech was not designed for the bewildered population; it was designed for the propaganda machine.

The speech provided a narrative of a patriotic nation supposedly opposed to the insurrection, and heroic soldiers bravely doing their duty. And when Putin had finished speaking, state-controlled media jumped to relay the message. Putin doubled down on this interpretation of events in his second televised address, in which he thanked the people who had rallied around the authorities. Finally, to cement the narrative, Putin met with the heads of state-controlled media outlets and a select group of war correspondents.

All this yet again proves that, for the Russian president, there are only two ways of seeing the world: his way and the incorrect way. He had laid out “what really happened” and, with the help of propaganda, it was supposed to take root in the minds of ordinary Russians.

In parallel, Putin has also been preoccupied with fixing the damage done to the second pillar of his regime—the security services. Even though Russia’s various security agencies had done precisely nothing for most of the short-lived insurrection, the president painted a very different picture. All security officers, according to him, were heroes and patriots who had prevented “the worst possible scenario” from unfolding.

In reality, facing no opposition, Wagner was able to seize Rostov-on-Don in just a few hours and establish a base in the headquarters of Russia’s southern military district (from where the war in Ukraine is managed). In the course of the insurrection, a Wagner column killed ten Russian aircrew and got to within just a few hundred kilometers of Moscow.

The way Putin sees it is that the success of the security forces lies in the fact that they resisted the temptation to go over to Prigozhin. Doing nothing was better than joining the rebels. For this “feat,” those who distinguished themselves will be thanked; those who died will be given medals; and Rosgvardiya, Russia’s National Guard, which was as silent as the grave during the uprising, will get new military equipment.

The final element of Putin’s version of events was total denial of how the uprising revealed deep disagreements within the security services and the recasting of Prigozhin from the “hero of Bakhmut” to a “businessman-traitor” who embezzled state money. Now, prosecutors will ascertain how much Prigozhin’s company Concord stole from state tenders; Wagner will be absorbed by the Defense Ministry; and the state will try and reclaim its monopoly on violence.

The uprising has highlighted a crisis of management in Russia’s political system and the huge contradiction within the Russian armed forces. But it looks like the Kremlin is not intending to take any measures in response, apart from dictating how state propaganda should frame the event.

Putin does not like taking decisions under pressure or firing long-serving officials—so Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov will likely stay in their posts. Reports about the detention of General Sergei Surovikin, who was not exactly a very public figure before the uprising, look more like routine interagency fighting than anything else. Whether there will be any changes in the military leadership is, for the moment, unclear.

While Prigozhin’s uprising was clearly a result of the war in Ukraine, it’s unlikely it will lead to any thoughts about ending that war. Putin is the main beneficiary from an “endless war.”

The regime may have survived, but the damage caused will be long-lasting. While it might look like Putin has successfully dealt with the uprising’s fallout by ignoring the problem and handing out awards, in actual fact the strain on the system remains. The repressions and purges that many are now expecting will only make this strain worse.

Russia’s system of political management is in a profound crisis because it ignores real problems and just concerns itself with Putin’s perception of reality. And this crisis has only been deepened by the war and shrinking resources. Trying to fix the problems with PR and heightened fear of the security services is like trying to fix a hole in the wall with ordinary adhesive: it may be glue, but it won’t hold.

 

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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