OTTAWA —
The Bank of Canada says the domestic economy will grow at a slightly slower pace this year than it previously thought and sees the risks from COVID-19 waning, but not enough to change its trendsetting policy rate.
The central bank said it expects the economy to grow 6.0 per cent in 2021, down from its previous forecast of 6.5 per cent. However, the bank now expects growth of 4.6 per cent in 2022, up from its earlier forecast of 3.7 per cent.
The reason for the shift is a weaker first half of the year than the bank expected as the economy was hampered by lockdowns and restrictions.
With public health restrictions partially or entirely lifted across the country, the central bank now expects consumers to start spending more, including from some of the estimated $200 billion in savings Canadians accumulated during the pandemic that officials previously hadn’t worked into their forecasts.
The bank’s updated economic outlook also said spending shouldn’t be affected by a decline in federal aid as it expects more people to get back to work, meaning they earn more and offset declines in government assistance.
“The reopening of the economy and the strong progress on vaccinations have given us reason to be more optimistic about the direction of the economy,” governor Tiff Macklem said in his opening statement at a late-morning press conference. “But we are not there yet, and we are mindful that the process is likely to be bumpy, and some scars will remain.”
As a result, the bank kept its key policy rate on hold at 0.25 per cent on Wednesday, where it has been since the onset of the pandemic. The bank said it will keep the rate at near-zero until the economy is ready to handle an increase in rates, which it doesn’t expect to happen until the second half of 2022.
The central bank also said that economic conditions have improved enough to allow it to reduce its weekly purchases of federal bonds to $2 billion from $3 billion. The purchases are a stimulus measure, known as quantitative easing, designed to help drive down rates charged on mortgages and business loans.
“With the economic recovery strengthening on the back of easing public health restrictions, it was a prudent move by the Bank to remove some policy support,” said TD senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam.
Macklem said the pace of purchases should slow over time if the economy recovers broadly in line with the bank’s outlook, but future changes will be gradual and deliberate.
BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said he expected the bank to wind down the quantitative easing program by early next year, which would set the stage for rate hikes likely within the ensuing 12 months.
In the scenario the bank laid out Wednesday, inflation runs above three per cent for the rest of the year because of higher gasoline prices and service businesses raising prices as demand returns. Inflation also stays above the Bank of Canada’s two-per-cent target next year and in 2023 because of excess demand before coming back to target in 2024.
Macklem said the factors pushing up inflation are likely to be short-lived, but that the bank will watch them closely in case they become persistent or grow.
“What we’re seeing are some sharp movements in prices, but that doesn’t look like inflation – it’s unlikely to cause ongoing price increases,” he said.
“Sure, there is some uncertainty about this. We will be watching these effects, we will be watching the evolution of inflation very carefully.”
One reason the bank plans to let inflation run hot is because the country’s labour market needs to hire roughly 550,000 people just to reach pre-pandemic employment levels. Macklem said the pace at which those jobs are recovered will vary by industry, and it could take some businesses, such as restaurants, a bit more time to fill positions.
“One of the things we are learning more about is it’s a lot easier to close an economy than it is to reopen one, and particularly in some sectors demand can rebound faster than supply can keep up,” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 14, 2021.
PORT ALBERNI, B.C. – RCMP say the body of a second person has been found inside their vehicle after a road washed away amid pouring rain on the west coast of Vancouver Island.
Police say two vehicles went into the Sarita River when Bamfield Road washed out on Saturday as an atmospheric river hammered southern B.C.
The body of the other driver was found Sunday.
More coming.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
The B.C. Greens say Sonia Furstenau will be staying on as party leader, despite losing her seat in the legislature in Saturday’s provincial election.
The party says in a statement that its two newly elected MLAs, Jeremy Valeriote and Rob Botterell, support Furstenau’s leadership as they “navigate the prospect of having the balance of power in the legislature.”
Neither the NDP led by Premier David Eby nor the B.C. Conservatives led by John Rustad secured a majority in the election, with two recounts set to take place from Oct. 26 to 28.
Eby says in a news conference that while the election outcome is uncertain, it’s “very likely” that the NDP would need the support of others to pass legislation.
He says he reached out to Furstenau on election night to congratulate her on the Greens’ showing.
But he says the Green party has told the NDP they are “not ready yet” for a conversation about a minority government deal.
The Conservatives went from taking less than two per cent of the vote in 2020 to being elected or leading in 45 ridings, two short of a majority and only one behind the NDP.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Toronto FC captain Jonathan Osorio is making a difference, 4,175 kilometres away from home.
The 32-year-old Canadian international midfielder, whose parents hail from Colombia, has been working with the Canadian Colombian Children’s Organization, a charity whose goal is to help disadvantaged youth in the South American country.
Osorio has worked behind the scenes, with no fanfare.
Until now, with his benevolence resulting in becoming Toronto FC’s nominee for the Audi Goals Drive Progress Impact Award, which honours an MLS player “who showed outstanding dedication to charitable efforts and serving the community” during the 2024 season.”
Other nominees include Vancouver Whitecaps midfielder Sebastian Berhalter and CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois.
The winner will be announced in late November.
The Canadian Colombian Children’s Organization (CCCO) is run entirely by volunteers like Monica Figueredo and Claudia Soler. Founded in 1991, it received charitable status in 2005.
The charity currently has four projects on the go: two in Medellin and one each in Armenia and Barranquilla.
They include a school, a home for young girls whose parents are addicted to drugs, after-school and weekend programs for children in a disadvantaged neighbourhood, and nutrition and education help for underprivileged youth.
The organization heard about Osorio and was put in contact with him via an intermediary, which led to a lunch meeting. Osorio did his due diligence and soon got back to the charity with his decision.
“It was something that I wanted to be a part of right away,” said Osorio, whose lone regret is that he didn’t get involved sooner.
“I’m fortunate now that to help more now that I could have back then,” he added. “The timing actually worked out for everybody. For the last three years I have donated to their cause and we’ve built a couple of (football) fields in different cities over there in the schools.”
His father visited one of the sites in Armenia close to his hometown.
“He said it was amazing, the kids, how grateful they are to be able to play on any pitch, really,” said Osorio. “But to be playing on a new pitch, they’re just so grateful and so humble.
“It really makes it worth it being part of this organization.”
The collaboration has also made Osorio take stock.
“We’re very fortunate here in Canada, I think, for the most part. Kids get to go to school and have a roof over their head and things like that. In Colombia, it’s not really the same case. My father and his family grew up in tough conditions, so giving back is like giving back to my father.”
Osorio’s help has been a godsend to the charity.
“We were so surprised with how willing he was,” said Soler.
The TFC skipper has helped pay for a football field in Armenia as well as an ambitious sports complex under construction in Barranquilla.
“It’s been great for them,” Figueredo said of the pitch in Armenia. “Because when they go to school, now they have a proper place to train.”
Osorio has also sent videos encouraging the kids to stay active — as well as shipping soccer balls and signed jerseys their way.
“They know more about Jonathan than the other players in Colombia,” Figueredo said. “That’s the funny part. Even though he’s far away, they’ve connected with him.”
“They feel that they have a future, that they can do more,” she added. “Seeing that was really, really great.”
The kids also followed Osorio through the 2022 World Cup and this summer’s Copa America.
Back home, Osorio has also attended the charity’s annual golf tournament, helping raise funds.
A Toronto native, he has long donated four tickets for every TFC home game to the Hospital for Sick Children.
Vancouver’s Berhalter was nominated for his involvement in the Whitecaps’ partnership with B.C. Children’s Hospital while Montreal’s Sirois was chosen for his work with the Montreal Impact Foundation.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
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