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Bank of Canada cuts rates as coronavirus delivers ‘negative shock’ – The Globe and Mail

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Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is seen during a news conference in Ottawa on Jan. 22.

Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points Wednesday in response to the “material negative shock” of the COVID-19 virus.

The bank lowered its target for the overnight rate to 1.25 per cent, down from 1.75 per cent. The last time the bank announced a rate cut was in 2015.

The move comes one day after G7 finance ministers and central bankers pledged coordinated action in response to the virus. Shortly after Tuesday’s G7 statement, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its key rate by 50 basis points, to a range of 1 per cent to 1.25 per cent.

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In a news release Wednesday, Bank of Canada officials said much has changed since its last interest rate decision in January.

“Before the outbreak, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing,” the bank said. “However, COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted.”

Economic fallout from the virus has also led to lower commodity prices and a decline in the value of the Canadian dollar.

“It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity,” the bank said.

Shortly after the decision, traders were pricing in a 75-per-cent chance the bank will cut rates again at its April 15 meeting.

As coronavirus fears have ramped up, investors have fled to safety in the bond market, pushing yields – which move opposite to prices – to historic lows. The U.S. 10-year Treasury has tumbled below 1 per cent for the first time ever, while Canada’s five-year bond yield, which influences mortgage rates, has ebbed to around 0.8 per cent, its lowest since 2016.

“The Bank of Canada didn’t wait to see the patient ailing before delivering a dose of preventative medicine, but where it goes from here is a matter of epidemiology rather than economics,” Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a research note. “Like the rest of us, [the Bank] will be watching for news on both the virus and the economy, but it’s reasonable to assume a further 25 [basis point] cut in April, with the rest of this year’s story being dependent on which virus scenario plays out.”

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Opinion: Federal Reserve’s interest rate slash provokes rather than pacifies investors’ anxiety

Beyond the virus, the bank listed other factors as contributing to weaker growth. The expected boost from recent resolutions to trade disputes in North America and between the U.S. and China have not materialized.

“In addition, rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms in some regions are dampening economic activity in the first quarter,” the bank said. “In light of all these developments, the outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.”

“We’ve seen central banks lay down their cards, and now we’ve got to see the government,” said Beata Caranci, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.

Ms. Caranci suggested fiscal stimulus could take the form of targeted tax breaks for hard-hit industries.

“It doesn’t need to be a blanket approach,” she added. “It needs to be really thoughtful, and most importantly, it needs to be swift. This is not something you want to be debating for months at a time.”

With world interest rates already near historic lows, central bankers have limited room to act in response to a major economic shock like COVID-19. As a result, the international response may need to rely more heavily on fiscal measures – such as tax cuts or new spending – to boost economic growth.

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Finance Minister Bill Morneau, who is preparing the Liberal government’s 2020 budget, said through a spokesperson this week that federal finances are in a position to provide extra support for the economy if necessary.

The Prime Minister’s Office announced Wednesday that a new eight-member cabinet committee focused on COVID-19 will be created and that it will be chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. The committee has a mandate to monitor both the health and economic impacts of the virus and to consider “all possible measures” to prevent and limit its spread in Canada.

Mr. Morneau is a member of the new committee. On Wednesday morning around 11 am eastern, he hosted a conference call with his federal and provincial counterparts to discuss the economic implications of the virus.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin was more specific this week, pointing to support for small business and increased spending on infrastructure as potential fiscal measures that could be adopted in Washington if fiscal stimulus is required.

RBC senior economist Josh Nye said a rate cut was expected but markets had not fully priced in a reduction of that size.

“With today’s statement leaving the door wide open to further easing, we still think the Bank of Canada is likely to cut in April in addition to today’s larger-than-expected move,” he said in a note. “But it’s the response from other policymakers, particularly fiscal and health authorities, that could do more to cushion the blow as the coronavirus outbreak intensifies.”

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Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, whose seven-year term expires in early June, has repeatedly pointed to concerns over elevated household debt levels as a factor for resisting an interest rate cut. Bank officials did not speak publicly Wednesday, but Mr. Poloz is scheduled to deliver a speech and take questions from the media in Toronto Thursday.

Bank of Montreal Chief Economist Doug Porter noted that Wednesday’s decision coincides with signs of strength in the Canadian housing market, particularly in Toronto.

“Clearly the bank is making a big trade off here, deciding that the risks of a virus-driven slowdown are much higher than the risks of a raging housing market,” he said in a note.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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