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Bank of Canada expected a steeper home price decline. Why it could still come

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The Bank of Canada says home price drops driven by the recent hikes to interest rates weren’t as steep as monetary policymakers would usually expect, thanks largely to a “structural” lack of supply.

But economists who spoke to Global News say the housing correction likely isn’t finished, with more declines to come.

Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, discussed the central bank’s view of the housing market on Wednesday after holding interest rates steady for the second consecutive time.

She said that the housing market has been more resilient to rate hikes to date than historical patterns would have suggested.

Rogers explained that home purchases are among the most sensitive parts of the economy to respond to interest rate changes, as they’re big-ticket items typically bought with a loan.

“As interest rates come down, house prices will move up a bit and they’ll come off as interest rates come back up,” she said of historic norms.

“We haven’t seen that same dynamic,” Rogers continued.

“They’ve come off a bit this time, but we’re not seeing, relative to the degree of rate increases, the decline in house prices that we would expect.”

Home prices did see a material drop in the first stages of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle.

Between March 2022 when the central bank began its rate hikes to January 2023 when it announced a “conditional pause” in tightening, Canadian Real Estate Association data shows an 18-per cent drop in the aggregate benchmark price of a home.

After that point, home prices rose another eight per cent in the spring rebound before peaking again in June, with a relatively slower decline in aggregate prices observed nationally since then.

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, tells Global News that the housing correction proceeded “broadly” as expected in the first stage of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle.

“Really, it’s that rebound that was the surprise,” he says of the spring resurgence.

 

Home prices might have further to fall

From the Bank of Canada’s view, the “structural lack of supply” of homes has been a barrier to a steeper housing correction.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has said the country needs to add some 3.5 million housing units to restore affordability in the market by 2030.

“Really, until we address that supply issue, interest rates on their own are not going to help us get back to a housing affordability situation,” Rogers said Wednesday.

Rachel Battaglia, an economist with RBC, agrees that home prices have been “buoyed” by a lack of available supply in spite of higher ownership costs tied to rising interest rates.

The most recent easing in home prices since June has come with more regional variation than the downturn of 2022, Battaglia notes. Canada’s most expensive housing markets in Ontario and British Columbia have taken a harder hit while some cities in Alberta like Calgary are continuing to see growth.

She attributes the resilience of Alberta’s housing markets to the lower debt-to-household income levels in the province and relative strength of the commodity-rich western economy.

“This current correction period doesn’t appear to be as all-encompassing as the last, for now,” Battaglia says.

But both Brown and Battaglia tell Global News that they believe home prices have further to fall as the pain of higher interest rates takes hold on homeowners in the months ahead.

“The downturn is likely to last a few more quarters,” Battaglia tells Global News.

Unlike last time the Bank of Canada’s policy rate was on pause, fixed mortgage rates tied to bond yields have not eased — something that helped to give some buyers a leg up in the housing market in the spring, Brown says.

This time around, Brown expects higher interest rates will continue to drag on home resales, driving a price decline of roughly five per cent from today’s levels.

TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi echoed Brown’s forecast in a report released Thursday, calling for a five-per cent drop in average prices and a 10-per cent drop in sales activity by the end of the first quarter of 2024, at which point he expects activity to pick up again.

 

Mortgage holders feeling vulnerable

Brown’s estimates for the housing correction assume there won’t be a high degree of forced selling among current homeowners, many of whom are feeling stressed about renewing their mortgages into a higher interest rate environment.

A Royal LePage report released Thursday shows 31 per cent of mortgage holders are set to renew in the next 18 months. Of that cohort, 74 per cent say they’re worried about the impact of higher interest rates, according to the survey based on Nanos polling between Sept. 8-14.

Despite anxiety among homeowners, the Bank of Canada’s latest Monetary Policy Report released alongside Wednesday’s decision shows higher rates haven’t yet caused too many problems in the mortgage space.

While the central bank indicates that “financial stress” has risen among households since the pandemic, it finds that delinquency rates for mortgages remain near “all-time lows.”

The same can’t be said for other types of credit, which are seeing a growing share of borrowers falling behind on payments by 60 days or more, the report showed. It singled out delinquency rates on car loans as surpassing pre-pandemic levels as of late.

While the Bank of Canada report says indicators of financial stress “point mainly to non-mortgage holders,” Brown notes it would be a mistake to assume the people struggling to make payments on car loans and credit card debt aren’t also the same ones facing rising mortgage costs.

Consumers will typically do everything in their power to avoid missing mortgage payments and having to sell their home, he says, which could mean defaulting on other loans first.

When people cut their spending elsewhere to stay on top of rising mortgage payments, that’s a force that can chill the economy and lead some companies to job cuts, Brown explains. That loss of income can act as the final domino that forces a homeowner to default on their mortgage.

“We see weakness in those auto loans, credit cards as a precursor to a weaker economy and job losses, that then triggers higher delinquency rates for mortgages,” he says.

If the Bank of Canada feels it has to keep its policy rate higher for longer, and the economy sees a deeper downturn than expected, Brown says a steeper price drop of 10-20 per cent is in the cards next year.

“If the bank is forced to keep interest rates high for longer … then it increases the risk that we see job losses and therefore forced home sales and therefore a much, much greater weakening of the housing market,” he says.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said Wednesday that the economy’s pathway to a “soft landing” that tames inflation without falling into a recession is “narrower.”

RBC is projecting Canada’s unemployment rate will rise a full percentage point from today’s levels to 6.5 per cent a year from now.

Battaglia says that while the jump might seem significant, 6.5 per cent unemployment is not too high by historical standards. Additionally, that rise doesn’t necessarily all have to come from job losses; Canada’s overall employment has been growing in 2023 even as the jobless rate rises thanks to record levels of immigration feeding into the country.

Battaglia also pointed to Canada’s mortgage stress test, which makes homebuyers and mortgage renewers qualify at higher rates to guard against potential jumps in the cost of borrowing, as giving another “safety net” to the housing market to avoid a wave of forced selling.

A gradual rise in unemployment and “quieter sales” in the coming quarters should help swing conditions into the housing market back to buyers’ favour, she says.

Rogers said that the Bank of Canada will provide more detail on how households are faring amid higher interest rates in its upcoming financial system review, set for release next month.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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