Bank of Canada expected to hold key interest rate at 5% amid ‘sluggish’ economy | Canada News Media
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Bank of Canada expected to hold key interest rate at 5% amid ‘sluggish’ economy

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The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its key interest rate steady on Wednesday as the Canadian economy bends to higher interest rates and inflation resumes its downward trend.

The central bank held its key interest rate steady at five per cent last month but kept the door open to more rate hikes, citing concerns about the persistence of underlying price pressures.

“Economic data releases since the Bank of Canada opted to forego an interest rate hike in September have been mixed, but we expect that they on net have made a hike at next week’s decision unlikely,” RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen and economist Claire Fan wrote in a client note on Friday.

The annual inflation rate rose in both July and August, while core measures of inflation — which strip out volatile prices — have not eased by much in recent months.

But the September consumer price index report helped quell some of those anxieties as the pace of price growth slowed across the economy and the annual inflation rate fell back to 3.8 per cent.

“We were kind of breathing a sigh of relief a little bit after the last inflation numbers,” said Andrew Grantham, CIBC executive director of economics.

“The recent inflation numbers suggest that it is starting to decelerate once again. And that, combined with the sluggish growth that we’ve seen, will probably keep (the Bank of Canada) on hold, not just this meeting, but really for the remainder of this year, and into next year as well.”

The Canadian economy shrank in the second quarter. Economists anticipate that weakness will continue for the rest of the year and into 2024.

The Bank of Canada’s recent business outlook survey supported this expectation. It showed business sentiment continued to weaken in the third quarter as companies said they expect sales growth to slow over the coming year.

On the jobs front, employment continues to rise as Canada’s population continues to surge, but the job market is not as robust as it was in 2022. Job vacancies have fallen and the unemployment rate has edged higher to 5.5 per cent.

The pace of consumer spending has also slowed. New retail Canadian retail sales fell 0.1 per cent to $66.1 billion in August as sales at new and used car dealers fell for the month, Statistics Canada said Friday.

These trends are expected to continue as the effect of previous rate hikes takes hold on the economy, pinching the pocketbooks of more Canadians and businesses.

In particular, as more households renew their mortgages, the effect of higher interest rates is expected to weigh on more people.

“We know that there’s more to come because we know that actually, fewer than 50 per cent of mortgage holders in Canada have been exposed to higher interest rates,” Grantham said.

Most economists expect these weaker economic and tighter financial conditions to eventually bring inflation back down to two per cent.

And while sticky core inflation is likely still a concern for the Bank of Canada, Grantham expects that concern to factor into the central bank’s decision on when to cut rates, rather than whether rates should rise further.

On the international front, the global economy faces some uncertainty amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, which risks destabilizing the Middle East.

“We’re seeing, globally, the risks around inflation have risen. The conflict in the Middle East, if that escalates, you know, wars are inflationary. There’s no other way around it,” Grantham said.

Central banks know all too well what wars can do to prices: the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 contributed significantly to the initial run-up in inflation as commodity prices skyrocketed.

Last week, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said it was too early to tell what the economic repercussions of the Israel-Hamas conflict may be.

“It’s far too early to tell. And it really depends on to what extent… this escalates,” Macklem said.

The Bank of Canada’s rate decision will be accompanied by its quarterly monetary policy report, which includes updated forecasts for global and domestic economies as well as for inflation.

 

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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