Bank of Canada expected to raise interest rate for fifth time at pivotal moment for economy - CP24 | Canada News Media
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Bank of Canada expected to raise interest rate for fifth time at pivotal moment for economy – CP24

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Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press


Published Saturday, September 3, 2022 2:32PM EDT

OTTAWA – Inflation appears to have peaked but it’s still running hot and a supersized rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week is widely expected.

Some economists think Wednesday’s hike could be the last for a while.

“We think that by the time October comes around, we might be in a good enough position for the bank to take a pause and look at how the economy is reacting,” said Karyne Charbonneau, CIBC’s executive director of economics.

The September rate call comes at a crucial time for Canada’s economy.

As gas prices fell, the year-over-year inflation rate sat at 7.6 per cent in July, down from 8.1 per cent in June. Second-quarter GDP grew compared with the first three months of the year, though that slowed toward the end of the period and a preliminary estimate suggests a contraction in July. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is holding at a historic low.

Despite the drop in the inflation rate, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in an Aug. 16 op-ed that nearly 40-year high inflation was still a major concern.

“Inflation in Canada has come down a little, but it remains far too high,” Macklem wrote. “We know our job is not done yet – it won’t be done until inflation gets back to the two per cent target.”

Some of Canada’s major banks are forecasting the central bank will raise the key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, bringing it to 3.25 per cent.

In a closely watched speech last week, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a stark message on its own rate hike cycle, saying the Fed will likely impose more large interest rate hikes in coming months. His message that the U.S. central bank will stay aggressive on interest rates had some observers speculating that the Bank of Canada hike on Sept. 7 could even be a full percentage point.

The bank hiked its key rate in July by a full percentage point – the largest single rate increase since August 1998 after a series of hikes that began in March. Previously, the rate had been at 0.25 per cent where it sat since it was slashed to near-zero early in the pandemic.

Higher interest rates feed into higher lending rates across the economy, making it more expensive for Canadians and businesses to borrow money. The central bank is hoping that by making the cost of debt more expensive, spending in the economy will slow and inflation will cool.

However, senior economist David Macdonald at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives warns the rapid pace of the hikes could have serious repercussions because of the high level of business and household debt in the economy.

In his latest analysis, Macdonald said private sector debt amounts to 225 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product. By comparison, the last time the bank raised interest rates this rapidly was in 1995, when private sector debt stood at 142 per cent of GDP.

That higher level of debt, he says, will make it harder to achieve the bank’s desired “soft landing,” where interest rate hikes bring inflation down without triggering a recession.

“What I really wanted to bring out in this analysis was the fact that private sector debt is much higher today than it was in the 1980s 1/8 and 3/8 1990s and previous times that we’ve seen this kind of rapid rate increase,” said Macdonald. “And why this matters, of course, is that it’s not just the interest rate that matters, the interest rate is charged on something. It’s charged on private sector debt.”

Macdonald has been calling for alternative solutions to cool inflation using federal government rather than central bank policy.

Some of his recommendations include changing mortgage underwriting rules for investors to cool housing prices and expanding the new excess corporate profits tax beyond financial institutions.

However, Christopher Ragan, McGill University’s Max Bell School of Public Policy, said the central bank is best-suited to take on the responsibility of maintaining low interest rates.

“There’s very, very good reasons why we have operationally independent central bank trying to target inflation rather than governments, because governments in the past have done a very poor job at that,” he said.

Ragan said the independence of the Bank of Canada allows it to act forcefully in the face of inflation, while any government intervention would be highly political. Nevertheless, Ragan says bringing inflation down with interest rate hikes is painful.

“That’s actually why it’s so important to never let inflation get high in the first place,” said Ragan. “Because it’s not just that high inflation is bad, it’s that reducing high inflation back down to low inflation hurts a lot.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 2, 2022.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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