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Bank of Canada faces tough call as coronavirus complicates rate decision – Financial Post

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The Bank of Canada knows something about “unusual shocks.”

In 2003, David Dodge was in his second year as governor when the central bank confronted the SARS epidemic, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (mad cow disease) in Alberta, a mass electricity failure across Ontario and severe forest fires in British Columbia — all at the same time.

Policy-makers in the fall of that year estimated that the combination of those calamities would slow the country’s annual rate of growth by nearly a percentage point in the second and third quarters. But, “given the temporary nature of these shocks, growth is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter,” the Bank of Canada said in its October Monetary Policy Report.

Economic growth did rebound, to an annual rate of almost four per cent, but the shocks from those events had taken a bigger toll than the central bank had realized heading towards the end of 2003. Dodge left interest rates unchanged in December, and then cut the benchmark rate by a quarter point in January, March and April. There were other variables at play by then, but one of the reasons for the stimulus was that the hole into which the Canadian economy had fallen was deeper than technocrats had realized in real time.

Timothy Lane, the longest-serving member of the Bank of Canada’s policy committee, was running around the world on behalf of the International Monetary Fund in 2003. For much of the next week, he will be spending time with Governor Stephen Poloz and the other deputies on the Governing Council to decide if they need to do anything to protect the Canadian economy from the coronavirus outbreak.

“Historical experiences are informative and we’ve certainly looked at that, but, of course, there are going to be differences in each episode,” Lane, who was named a deputy governor in 2009, said in an interview in Montreal on Feb. 24. “One obvious and major difference is that China is a vastly larger share of the world economy now than when we had SARS. But apart from that, it’s a question of how the behaviour might change and that’s something that might be different in different episodes and also depending on how the disease progresses.”

That answer might sound like a dodge, but consider how little headline trade numbers tell us about what’s happening on the ground.

Earlier this month, Statistics Canada said the number of Canadian companies exporting to China increased by more than 400 between 2016 and 2018. And yet, the 10 biggest exporters were responsible for half of those exports. Is Canada more exposed to China than it was two decades ago? Certainly. But what if most of that exposure is through a relatively small number of big, sophisticated corporations that possess the tools and financial might to cushion the blow? If that’s the case, then an interest-rate cut could be an overreaction.

“The historical guideposts are useful up to a point,” Lane said. “Ultimately, we are going to have to watch how things evolve.”

Lane was in Montreal to share the Bank of Canada’s latest thinking about digital currencies at a financial-technology conference hosted by CFA Montreal, and that’s what we talked about the most during a half-hour interview. (Watch this space.)

But with global financial markets plunging for a fourth day as COVID-19 spread to Europe and Iran, and as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned Americans to prepare for an outbreak, a few questions on what the Canadian central bank is thinking about all this were unavoidable.

Poloz and his deputies will release their next interest-rate decision on March 4. Most indicators suggest the economy barely grew in the fourth quarter, and that was before anyone knew about the coronavirus. It was also before some First Nations and their supporters blocked key railways for much of February. No one is talking about a recession, but no one is feeling good about the economy’s short-term prospects either.

“The coronavirus spread could lead us to revise down quickly our Canadian 2020 annual forecasts,” Sébastien Lavoie, chief economist at Laurentian Bank, said in a research note on Feb. 25. “This risk is unambiguously tilted to the downside.”

Lavoie, a former Bank of Canada economist, now sees little prospect for significant economic growth until at least March. Still, he said he was unprepared to predict an “insurance cut.” Poloz and his deputies opted against one of those last summer during the worst of the trade wars, and there probably isn’t enough reason yet to risk contributing to the current panic.

At the same time, economists at a handful of the biggest Canadian banks already thought the central bank would be forced to cut interest rates at least once this spring to offset waning consumer demand and weak exports. The idiosyncratic events generating headlines so far in 2020 only strengthen their case. So do the most recent indicators. Factory sales declined for a fourth consecutive month in December, and retail sales were flat at the end of the year. (To be sure, hiring remained strong, albeit less robust.)

Nothing Lane said will settle this debate.

If the Bank of Canada had a message for the markets, it would have added a section on the economy in his speech — and it didn’t. This round of policy deliberations will be done without the benefit of a revised forecast, since those are done only once a quarter and the last one was published in January, when policy-makers opted to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.

“There have been those various pieces of news,” Lane said. “On the other hand, we’ve also had economic data coming in which has been not too much out of line with what we had been predicting. These recent events are too recent to show up in the data, so it’s really a question about how do we think about the risks going forward?”

•Email: kcarmichael@postmedia.com | CarmichaelKevin

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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