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Bank of Canada head says it is unclear how quickly inflation will drop

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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Wednesday there was uncertainty about how quickly inflation would come back down into the central bank’s comfort zone, due to the unique nature of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Macklem, speaking to the Senate banking committee, also reiterated that interest rates need to rise to tackle inflation, which is currently at 4.8%, more than double the central bank’s 2% target and well above its 1-3% control range.

“There is some uncertainty about how quickly inflation will come down because we’ve never experienced a pandemic like this before,” he said.

Macklem said the central bank expects inflation to peak around 5% in the coming months.

“We do expect inflation is going to remain uncomfortably high in the first half of this year, before coming down fairly quickly in the second half, as the pandemic recedes and things normalize,” he added.

He noted there was “obviously uncertainty” on timing, saying it would take time for supply chains to work through bottlenecks and backlogs. On the flip side, price spikes could reverse and inflation could come down more quickly, he said.

Macklem also reiterated Canada’s economy no longer needed help https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hike-or-not-its-toss-up-ahead-bank-canada-rate-decision-2022-01-26/#:~:text=OTTAWA%2C%20Jan%2026%20(Reuters),of%20the%20COVID-19%20pandemic to deal with the effects of the pandemic and that interest rates will soon be on a rising path.

“It will be a series of increases, not a single increase,” he said, adding that the bank will keep a close eye on how those moves impact inflation and other aspects of the economy.

Last week, the Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.25%. Money markets expect a first hike on March 2 and at least five in total this year. [BOCWATCH]

(Reporting by David Ljunggren and Julie Gordon; Editing by Aurora Ellis and Rosalba O’Brien)

Economy

Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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