Bank of Canada holds key rate, but signals June cut in ‘realm of possibilities’ | Canada News Media
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Bank of Canada holds key rate, but signals June cut in ‘realm of possibilities’

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The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday amid signs that inflation is easing, with officials acknowledging that a rate cut in June is “within the realm of possibilities.”

The central bank’s policy rate, which informs lending rates on key products like Canadian mortgages, remains at 5.0 per cent for the sixth straight decision.

The hold was widely expected by economists amid signs price pressures are easing, growth in the economy has stalled and the once-tight labour market is softening.



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Canada’s unemployment rate jumped to 6.1% in March

 


Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said in prepared remarks accompanying the rate decision that recent data has given the central bank more confidence that “inflation will continue to come down gradually even as economic activity strengthens.”

“Our key indicators of inflation have all moved in the right direction,” he said.

 

Easing core inflation encouraging Bank of Canada

The Bank of Canada’s rate tightening cycle began more than two years ago in an effort to rein in decades-high levels of inflation.


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Annual inflation has cooled significantly since then, last coming in at 2.8 per cent in February.

The central bank signalled inflation might be cooling faster than previously expected in an updated monetary policy report released on Wednesday. While that forecast still sees inflation to return to its two per cent target in 2025, it now calls for inflation to cool to 2.2 per cent by the end of 2024, down from previous expectations for 2.4 per cent.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred metrics of core inflation have also begun to ease lately, hovering above three per cent in February.

The central bank acknowledged this progress in its statement accompanying the rate decision on Wednesday, but said it was still looking for evidence that “downward momentum is sustained.”

CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham said in a note to clients Wednesday that this marks a shift in tone from the Bank of Canada, with monetary policymakers no longer flagging the “persistence” of core inflation in their remarks.

Shelter price inflation also remains “very elevated,” the Bank noted, thanks to rising rents and mortgage costs. Food price inflation is expected to continue to cool thanks to global price declines in the agricultural sector, according to the MPR.

Monetary policymakers will continue to watch the evolution of inflation expectations, corporate pricing behaviour and wage growth as it decides where to take its benchmark interest rate next.

The central bank noted that recent easing in the labour market suggests wage pressures are “moderating.” The Bank’s MPR said it expected further progress in inflation expectations and normalized pricing in the months ahead.

But rising home prices tied to strong demand in the housing market and outstanding geopolitical risks still threaten to push inflation higher in the months ahead, the report warned.



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Spring housing market and Bank of Canada interest rates: What to expect

 


 

When could interest rates come down?

In a press conference following the rate hold on Wednesday, Macklem was asked whether an interest rate cut in June was on the table.

“Yes, it’s within the realm of possibilities,” he said.

Macklem also addressed Canadians’ questions about when interest rate cuts can begin in his prepared remarks. He said while the Bank of Canada is encouraged by its progress to date, policymakers need to be certain the recent easing in core inflation is not a “temporary dip.”

“What do we need to see to be convinced it’s time to cut? The short answer is we are seeing what we need to see, but we need to see it for longer to be confident that progress toward price stability will be sustained,” he said.

Grantham said the Bank of Canada’s statement Wednesday showed little rush towards eventual interest rate cuts. If core inflation continues to ease in Statistics Canada’s next two consumer price index reports, interest rate cuts could start at the central bank’s next decision on June 5, he said.

“Overall, the statement is in line with a central bank moving slowly towards lowering interest rates,” Grantham said.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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