Business
Bank of Canada interest rate: What happens next?
|
|
The Bank of Canada announced Wednesday it would hold its key overnight rate at 4.5 per cent after eight consecutive interest rate increases – and experts said the pause could last throughout 2023 as the bank watches the economy responds to its policy moves so far.
Economists told BNNBloomberg.ca the months ahead will reveal how economic indicators – in particular, inflation and the labour market — react to the dramatic series of hikes that began last March at a pandemic-low interest rate of 0.25 per cent.
“The question now is how strongly Canada’s debt-saddled economy responds following months of aggressive monetary tightening,” Marc Desormeaux, principal economist of Canadian economics at Desjardins, told BNNBloomberg.ca in a Wednesday phone interview.
Leslie Preston, senior economist at TD Economics, said in a Wednesday phone interview that the Bank of Canada is in a “wait and see period” as the cumulative effect of the last year of monetary policy sets in.
CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld echoed the idea that the bank could take a hands-off approach to interest rate adjustments this year.
“What likely comes next for the Bank of Canada is a very long nap, in the sense that interest rates are unlikely to change over the balance of 2023 if the economy performs as we expect,” he said.
KEY DATA TO COME
The Bank of Canada (BoC) highlighted the still-tight labour market in its Wednesday statement on the rate decision, and referenced falling inflation that at 5.9 per cent still sits well above the central bank’s two per cent target.
Statistics Canada data on February’s employment numbers and inflation are expected in the coming weeks, and those numbers will be “relatively crucial in terms of where we go next,” said Doug Porter, chief economist of BMO Financial Group.
Preston said she will be watching closely for a softening in the jobs numbers relative to January’s strong labour market report.
“For inflation to continue to come down, we’re going to need to see some softening in the labour market,” she said.
A Thursday speech by deputy governor Carolyn Rogers could give further clues about the thinking behind the BoC’s decision to hold, Porter added, while an upcoming summary of the bank’s deliberations has potential to shed further light on the policymaking process.
IMPACT ON CANADIANS
The fact that rates didn’t rise again on Wednesday offers “some relief” to borrowers, said Preston – but a pause doesn’t lessen the economic pain from higher rates that is already setting in.
Canada’s housing market has already started absorbing the higher interest rates, and Preston said that will continue as more people’s fixed-rate mortgages come up for renewal.
“That impact, as more and more people renew every quarter, is going to weigh on household spending for a couple of years,” she said.
People will also notice higher borrowing costs as they seek to finance other major purchases like cars and appliances, she said.
Desmoreaux said he’s anticipating a “short and shallow recession” in Canada this year as the economy slows down in response to the rate increases – which will in turn weigh on workers as jobs become more scarce.
Canadians will “feel the pinch” of rates in their mortgages, wages and job prospects in 2023, said Shenfeld, but people can also expect some relief while shopping for goods and services if inflation continues to come down.
“There’s some economic pain, particularly for those with big mortgages that are renewing at higher rates, but there is a broader benefit to consumers from not facing ever-escalating prices,” he said.
WHEN WILL THE CENTRAL BANK CUT RATES?
The central bank stressed on Wednesday that it is “prepared to increase the policy rate further” to get inflation down to its two per cent target.
Economists who spoke with BNNBloomberg.ca said they largely expect the BoC to leave its key interest rate at 4.5 per cent in the year ahead, even as it left the door open to more tightening.
Shenfeld said he expects the BoC’s language about its future direction will likely become clearer in the coming months.
“At some point, likely by this summer, the bank will be more definitive in its projection that they’re done with rate hikes,” he said, predicting that the key interest rate will remain unchanged through 2023 if the economy progresses as expected.
Preston and Desormeaux predicted rate cuts could start by the fourth quarter of this year, while Shenfeld and Porter said they think cuts are more likely to happen in 2024.
The BoC said Wednesday that it expects inflation could reach three per cent by the middle of this year, but economists said more rate hikes could be on the table if inflation rears its head again.
Porter said it would take a couple of months of disappointing inflation data or “indications that that the economy is still barreling forward” to prompt more tightening from the central bank – but the move clearly has not been ruled out.
“I don’t think the bank is in any way committed to staying on the sidelines,” he said. “They’re pretty clear that if they’re going to move on rates, it’s going to be up, not down in the year ahead.”
The federal government announced amendments to the foreign homebuyer ban on Monday that eases some restrictions for non-Canadians, including newcomers to the country.
The Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act was passed by Parliament in June 2022 and came into force on the first day of 2023.
Under that law, non-citizens, non-permanent residents, and foreign commercial enterprises were blocked from purchasing Canadian homes — with some exceptions for international students and temporary residents. Those who violate the ban face a $10,000 fine and may have to sell the offending property.
The amendments will now allow some non-Canadians to purchase residential property in certain circumstances in order to help add to Canada’s housing supply, according to a statement from the ministry of housing.
Effective immediately, work permit holders or those authorized to work in Canada can now purchase a home to live in while working in the country. Work permit holders must have 183 days or more of validity remaining on the permit at the time of the purchase, and cannot purchase more than one residential property, according to the statement.
The ban will also now not apply to vacant land zoned for residential and mixed-use, so non-Canadians can purchase such land with the potential of using it for residential development.
There will also now be an exception to allow non-Canadians, as well as publicly traded entities formed in Canada but controlled by a non-Canadian, to purchase residential property for the purpose of development.
In addition, the government will consider a privately-held corporation or entity to be foreign if a non-Canadian owns up to 10 per cent of its equity, up from three per cent.
“These amendments will allow newcomers to put down roots in Canada through home ownership and businesses to create jobs and build homes by adding to the housing supply in Canadian cities,” Housing Minister Ahmed Hussen said in a statement in CMHC’s release.
“These amendments strike the right balance in ensuring that housing is used to house those living in Canada, rather than a speculative investment by foreign investors.”
More on Canada
Canada has been accepting record numbers of immigrants into the country, and the ban was previously criticized by some experts for not allowing them to purchase homes.
The foreign homebuyers ban was put in place to limit foreign investment in property that potentially could be taking away homes for Canadians, according to Hussen.
However, the policy has been criticized for not being the right approach to tackling housing affordability.
Elton Ash, ReMax executive president for Western Canada, told Global News in January that non-Canadian homeowners don’t make up a significant amount of real estate transactions.
“I can tell you with full confidence, (the ban) will have zero effect on house prices,” he said.
— with files from Global News’ Kathryn Mannie
© 2023 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
|
|
This column will be a departure from my usual job-searching topics to focus on something crucial to a successful job search and your career momentum, especially when networking and interviewing: making human connections.
“The most important things in life are the connections you make with others.” – Tom Ford, American fashion designer.
Genuine human connections lead to positive energy exchange and trust building. Since most job search activities involve interacting with people, projecting positive energy and being seen as trustworthy greatly benefits you.
According to American psychologist Abraham Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, love and belonging are the most essential needs we must fulfill, besides food, water, and safety. We are more fulfilled when our needs for love and belonging are met.
We live busy lives, juggling work, family responsibilities, self-care, side hustles, and more. Therefore, often our social connections fall by the wayside. You might not think connecting with others is important, but it is. Social connections can lower anxiety and depression, help regulate emotions, increase self-esteem and empathy, and improve your immune system. These are huge pluses when job hunting.
Sadly, we live in a time when there is a great deal of disconnection. While technology gives the appearance we are more connected than ever, the screens around us disconnect us from nature, ourselves, and those around us. Rather than using technology, especially social media, to enhance our human connections, we use it to replace them.
Being brave, proactive, and taking chances is often required to make human connections. Striking up a conversation with a stranger can be intimidating, requiring you to step out of your comfort zone. Your lowest-hanging fruit is to reconnect with current friends and family. Then venture out and try new activities, such as joining a club or taking classes, to meet people to build a relationship with.
Putting yourself out there will ultimately pay off in the form of a rewarding feeling that comes from building human connections. Here are six simple ways you can create human connections.
-
Surround yourself with people with shared interests.
It is easy to bond with people who share your interests and hobbies. Identifying commonalities between your interviewer and yourself is the most straightforward way to bond with your interviewer, which will give you a competitive advantage.
Do you love reading? Join a local book club. Are you a runner? Join a running club. Go where people who share your interests and beliefs are, such as clubs, volunteering, sports, taking classes, church, or sitting on an advisory board.
-
Overcome your resistance.
Building relationships is often intimidating because of a natural fear of rejection. However, to make human connections, you must overcome your limiting beliefs causing your resistance to change, and embrace situations outside your comfort zone.
The best way I know how to lower your anxiety when meeting new people is to remember showing interest is a massive gesture to anyone you meet. Therefore ask open-ended questions about the other person and make your discussion all about them.
TIP: When meeting someone for the first time, ask yourself, “How can I help this person?”
-
Smile and give off a positive attitude.
People prefer positive emotions to negative ones when forming a social connection; therefore, first impressions count.
A positive demeanor and a genuine smile will naturally draw people to you. Before spending time with others, I find doing a gratitude exercise and taking a few minutes to reflect on the good things in my life helpful in creating a positive attitude.
Putting your best self forward will maximize your chances of being a people magnet.
-
Open up.
If you want to make friends more easily, allow yourself to be more vulnerable with others. This does not mean dropping all filters or boundaries. Too much, too soon, can put people off. On the other hand, you do not want to be an overly edited version of yourself and thus come across as not being authentic.
People can sense whether or not someone is genuine, so let them see the most authentic version of you. Your vulnerability will also prompt them to feel comfortable around you and connect with you on a deeper level.
-
Do not hide behind your phone.
In social situations where you are uncomfortable, hiding behind your phone is easy, preventing you from making real-life connections.
Being on your phone during a party or networking event makes you less approachable. Whenever you are out, focus on being present and engaging with the people around you.
-
Stay in touch.
Human connections need to be nurtured. Regular contact deepens your connections.
If you make a new friend, keep in touch with them and grow your friendship. Likewise, maintain your existing relationships with friends, family, and colleagues by keeping in touch.
Making and maintaining human connections is an activity you should prioritize if for no other reason than the fact that opportunities (e.g., jobs, friendships, love) exist all around you; the only caveat is they are connected to people. Therefore, the more people you are connected to, the more opportunities you will be exposed to.
_________________________________________________________
Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.
|
|
North Carolina-based First Citizens will buy Silicon Valley Bank, the tech industry-focused financial institution that collapsed earlier this month, rattling the banking industry and sending shockwaves around the world.
The deal could reassure investors at a time of shaken confidence in banks, though the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other regulators had already taken extraordinary steps to head off a wider banking crisis by guaranteeing that depositors in SVB and another failed U.S. bank would be able to access all of their money.
Customers of SVB will automatically become customers of First Citizens, which is headquartered in Raleigh. The 17 former branches of SVB will open as First Citizens branches Monday, the FDIC said.
European shares opened higher Monday, with German lender Commerzbank AG up 2.4% and BNP Paribas up 1.2%.
Investors worry that other banks also may crumble under the pressure of higher interest rates. On Friday, much of the focus was on Deutsche Bank, whose stock tumbled 8.5% in Germany, though it was back up about 3.6% in early trading Monday. Earlier this month, shares of and faith in Swiss bank Credit Suisse fell so much that regulators brokered a takeover of by rival UBS.
In the U.S., SVB, based in Santa Clara, California, collapsed March 10 after depositors rushed to withdraw money amid fears about the bank’s health. It was the second-largest bank collapse in U.S. history after the 2008 failure of Washington Mutual. Two days later, New York-based Signature Bank was seized by regulators in the third-largest bank failure in the U.S.
In both cases, the government agreed to cover deposits, even those that exceeded the federally insured limit of $250,000, so depositors were able to access their money.
New York Community Bank agreed to buy a significant chunk of Signature Bank in a $2.7 billion deal a week ago, but the search for a buyer for SVB took longer.
The sale announced late Sunday involves the sale of all deposits and loans of SVB to First-Citizens Bank and Trust Co., the FDIC said.
The acquisition gives the FDIC shares in First Citizens worth $500 million. Both the FDIC and First Citizens will share in losses and the potential recovery on loans included in a loss-share agreement, the FDIC said.
First Citizens Bank was founded in 1898 and says it has more than $100 billion in total assets, with more than 500 branches in 21 states as well as a nationwide bank. It reported net profit of $243 million in the last quarter. It is one of the top 20 U.S. banks and says it is the largest family-controlled bank in the country.
Federal budget 2023: Billions in new spending, $40.1B deficit – CTV News
Justin Trudeau has let Beijing deep into Canadian politics – The Telegraph
Canada helping Mexico invade the U.S., says Republican firebrand – CBC.ca
-
Economy13 hours ago
What to expect from budget 2023 as ‘storm clouds’ gather over Canada’s economy
-
Tech14 hours ago
Nintendo Switch – OLED Model – The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom Edition
-
Politics13 hours agoFederal budget to announce $7-billion in savings on outsourcing and travel, source says
-
Tech23 hours ago
Is Shimano about to ditch derailleur hangers? Patent reveals direct-mount derailleur design
-
Health23 hours ago
Respiratory Outbreak Over: Jasper Place – Thunder Bay District Health Unit
-
Sports24 hours ago
Maple Leafs clinch playoff berth with Panthers loss to Senators
-
Business11 hours ago
First Citizens acquires troubled Silicon Valley Bank
-
Real eState24 hours ago
House of the Week: $4.8 million for a humongous Whitby estate with a turret and a 15-foot-tall waterfall
